Visuals
Economic Evolution Thomas J Novak
Disclaimers 1. I wish to contend that Micro and Macro Economics each constitute a hidden branch of evolution. To be clear, I’m not arguing for an analogy, ​I’m arguing each branch is an evolutionary process; and with this comes the mathematical framework needed to scientifically ​objectify success (major goal for every Capitalist). 2. The quantitative aspects are partially rooted in Game Theoretic Evolution. I do not expect this theory will garner majority support or ​understanding. It is only an esoteric theoretical ideal; but it is my hope that this will gradually change until one-day we have a Utopia. 3. The mechanism is voluntary through rational self-incentives. It advocates for a change in perspective for optimal decision making purposes. 4. Dollars and other fiat currencies are still completely necessary. Fiat currency constitutes a valuable technology that eliminates the need for ​bartering, yielding considerable savings in life’s prime asset - TIME. 5. I apologize to the reader in advance for the long essay. I hope it is "worth" your time.
Key Conclusions
Present day humanity is full of capitalists that have the right idea but are missing some key math. This is causing them to behave inefficiently in the context of their own self-interests. Ideal Capitalism is Pareto Optimal and should be practiced by all; and it should lead to maximal economic growth. I also wish to conjecture that a new Nash Equilibrium is available to our race: Perpetual peacetime under the individual Pareto Optimal Strategy of Ideal Capitalism as every individual looks to maximize their self-fortune and troll farms are voluntarily dismantled. If this sounds too good to be true, note that it very well may have been for all of human-history save the last few decades. Key developments are nuclear weapons and the internet. Discussed more in the last section.
Introduction
The "science" of Economics is not yet a science. Don't get me wrong - micro-economics is just about there; but macro-econ is a totally different story. Some call it “The Dismal Science” because it makes many quantitative claims that are inconsistent with empirical data. An example is the claim that John Rockefeller’s fortune could be made comparable to contemporary fortunes by adjusting his dollars for inflation and real growth. In fact only adjusting his hours for real growth does the trick.
In general macro-econ has a zero-sum-dollar-centric structure that does not allow for input of things like maternity and child rearing - two fundamentally "valuable" human activities. Another problem is that planetary-wide risks like war, (and that which is assured by "Mutually Assured Destruction" (MAD)), are not naturally measurable in dollars.
Some concepts from financial mathematics and science can generalize economic measurements into a co-compatible theory that almost seems too simple to be necessary. Basic results agree with common sense in every way. Some conclusions are so obvious the calculation seems pointless. Others might be beyond common sense similar to the notion that the Earth on which one walks is anything but flat. The former supports credence for the latter. All examples of human stupidity supports a need for all of it.
Ideal Capitalism
Most powers past through present can be thought cold, "calculating”, and self-interested; and most presently embrace association with Capitalism. Paradoxically, human history, (even recent), is a litany of fighting and stupidity and hurt feelings. These are inefficiencies from the Capitalist perspective, so something must be wrong with these “calculations”.
The argument will start with a Micro-Economic exercise intended to provide quantitative framework to measure just how unCapitalistic many present-day capitalists are acting, by unitizing all their actions in a scientific manner. Any Capitalist wishing to maximize their net-worth will be made more materialistically rich simply by maintaining complete indifference about others, understanding the entire picture, and trusting numbers. Wall Street can confirm this is its goal.
“Complete indifference” means precisely 0 concern for anything other than material-self-worth and 100% concern for material-self-worth. Nonzero concern for others, positive or negative, is suboptimal since it distracts from the objective of maximizing self-worth. Footnote 1: “Others” does not include the friends and family category. All intentional altruism can be represented easily by having those individuals' interests summed and grouped together so as to be viewed as part of the Capitalist’s “self-interest”. All reasoning forward is unaffected by how many friends and family are now implied to be included.
The results can empower all decision makers to calculate in the only way possible: with actual mathematics. The numbers will sometimes disagree with intuition; but the numbers will always be correct. The optimal strategy will hardly change except for sufficiently wealthy individuals. The proof can be seen empirically by back-testing the model in history on the domain in which all success is measured: quality-weighted-time (qwt). The definition of qwt will leverage Game Theoretic Evolution and is discussed more below.
Some conclusions may be counterintuitive similar to the way natural selection favored Symbiogenesis; but maximum profit calls for absolute “trust” in numbers above all else - exactly as exhibited in microbial evolution. Any call for “selfless” acting resulting in benefits to others is strictly incidental; and any less is unselfishly selfish in that it renders this inefficient capitalist less wealthy than maximally possible.
Step 1 - Any political bias about aiding others should be deleted. An “Ideal Capitalist” expresses precisely 0 concern for others and what others think - no more, no less. As long as an individual is correctly acting in their own best interests, they are acting as a Capitalist. Contra-positively one can claim to be a capitalist and act inefficiently against their own interests as many “capitalists” will be shown are doing today. I suggest a new term “Maximalist” to mean an Ideal Capitalist and avoid the need for case sensitivity.
Step 2 - Success Spawns Success. What is meant by quality-weighted-time? The definition comes from the only objective arbiter possible: Evolution through Survival of the Fittest. Something is “fit”, or “successful”, if it results in more quantity (Q) or more quality (q), where more quality means it produced more Quantity faster - which renders it more successful. This is The Tautology of Evolutionary Game Theory (The Tautology). For any evolutionary process, quantity is the metric which quantifies success. Quality is measured in quantity per unit of time (q=Q/t). Note that multiplying q=Q/t with t yields Q=qwt: the metric of success that necessarily satisfies The Tautology. Footnote 2: The word “tautology” is meant in the propositional logic sense. No negative connotation should be inferred.
Step 3 - How to connect economics with evolution?
Micro-economic decision strategy for trading time (t) for dollars ($), (or $ for t), amounts to a “phenotype”, (or observable trait), coded for by genetics inherited or mutated, and ideas learned or created. Respectively: - Inherited genetics constrain every rational human to be “risk averse”, regardless of self-perception, because natural selection favored and continues to favor risk aversion. Defined below and proven further below. - Mutated genes are almost never favorable for a human so this case will be discarded (although this force is quite powerful over quintillions of human-hours). - Richard Dawkins creatively postulated ideas to be “memes”: new evolutionarily viable packets of information, subject to selection forces, as they spread from person to person with varying levels of success overtime. Respectively gene inheritance and mutation is analogous to meme learning and creation. Furthermore the economy can be seen as a subsection of the biosphere governed primarily by evolution through forces of selection. The economy evolves through selection of both genes and memes, and memes are more abstract; but this should not change anything about the evolutionary game theory. After all humanity itself is naturally occurring, so Artificial Selection of Genes and Memes can be seen as a more complex extended phenotype coded for by the evolution of genes through Natural Selection. Any argument that “Artificial Selection” constitutes a meaningful difference from “Natural Selection” must first come to terms with the observation that humanity is itself, naturally occurring.
Step 4 - What is the definition of “risk averse”? The mathematical definition of risk averse simply requires diminishing returns to be experienced on assets like dollars. For example: an additional $1M adds less “utility” if you presently have $2B, compared to if you presently have $2M. If a person is not risk averse, then more success encourages more risky behavior. This is inconsistent with the observation that more success means one has more to lose. Therefore any risk-inclined individual cannot be an Ideal Capitalist as they will almost surely go broke gambling.
Step 5 - What is “utility”? Utility is the abstract micro-economic concept that, by definition, quantifies value. The unsettled question of how to actually do this is addressed below.
Total Utility = True Material Self-Worth = “well-offness”. All have one-to-one correspondence with each other. All are “mutually inclusive”. For example: twice the quantity of utility, by definition, means twice material self-worth; and so, the individual is exactly twice better-off. Diminishing returns do not apply to quantities of utility.
Step 6 - How to define an objective function to maximize utility? Per Wikipedia: “Consider a set of alternatives facing an individual, and over which the individual has a preference ordering. A ‘utility function’ is able to represent those preferences if it is possible to assign a real number to each alternative, in such a way that alternative A is assigned a number greater than alternative B if, and only if, the individual prefers alternative A to alternative B.”
Keynote: dollars are not material wealth, dollars buy material wealth, with diminishing returns, limited by genes, memes, and the quality and Quantity of the Marketplace (respectively qQMP).
To illustrate this, consider how rich you would be with $1T cash on Mars in the present day marketplace. Personally as an oxygen breathing Capitalist, I would view my self-worth as constituting a liability - measurable in my personal subjective frame of reference in units of time, weighted by some self-knowable quality of life representing the quantity of misery per hour that I experience dying alone. Presently the quality of the marketplace on Mars is exactly 0 because 0 quantity is available for purchase. Footnote 3: The quality of life purchasable given the Time and Place is shown below to be bounded from above, although it is by no means bounded from below.
Back to Earth. If sufficiently rich, then maximizing material wealth calls for buying everything in desired amounts to maximize present quality of Life (qoL), holding ample dollars in reserve to spend on future qoL (like new inventions) and future quantity (like new medicine), and allocating the rest to increase future qQ which is not presently available for purchase. In keeping with The Tautology, qoL enhancements will provide for faster consumption of Quantity (Q=qwt). Note how perfectly this fits with The Tautology.
Ideally a good Capitalist with sufficient dollars would employ a strategy so as to maximize qoL at every point in time by exhausting most/all dollars by death. Any argument that an individual cannot meaningfully increase future qQMP fails. As an example: a medical breakthrough for genetic predispositions could yield considerably more time for any one capitalist, with expected returns modeled via actuarial mathematics. Consider just how far Humanity has come since the birth of The Enlightenment - it is easy to see how the not-so-distant future may include considerably more qQoL for sale. (Conversely the future may include far less qQoL if macro-decision-public-policy modeling continues to fail to quantify/unitize the cost of war - discussed more in the Macro Economic qwt section below.)
qQ enhancements, although more subjective, can be substantially accelerated by one talented individual. Examples include Albert Einstein, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk. All are responsible for inventing and/or producing new things which I personally enjoy - the qQoL that I can purchase is greater as a result of their work. My time and money could not purchase such things if they were not invented. As discussed next, micro-economic quality weights are quality of Life (qoL) weights. They have an upper bound that can be “objectively” unitized and measured by the self-interested party's own frame of reference.
Step 7 - How can an individual objectively define an upper bound for these inherently subjective quality weights with any mathematical rigor? Is it possible that more dollars does not always result in more utility? Yes!
Proof Reductio ad Absurdum
Ripping off an idea from one of the greatest thinkers ever - I propose a financial thought experiment: pretend it is possible for you to pause all of society and gamble once at the “Name Your Winnings Casino”.
Here you can choose entering into an even bet: 50% of the time you win the largest number of dollars you can mathematically express = $P; or 50% of the time you suffer absolute ruin: the casino takes everything of material value and your dollars and returns you to the real world where no insurance policies exist for you and no friends or family are able to ease your loss by lending a couch to sleep on or pulling strings for a job offeinterview. If you lose you reenter the world a naked homeless person “worth” exactly $0.
Four observations follow:

1. The decision to bet is made independent of any consideration of others, consistent with the Ideal Capitalist.
   
2. Any sane human with the smallest capacity for self-honestly could conservatively estimate a walk-away number A, (denominated in dollars), such that if present “net worth” is greater than $A then no bet.
   
3. No rational person choosing to bet would play more than once because either they’d lose or they’d win $P and have received the payout they named. “Letting it ride” constitutes an obviously dumb decision born out of the unwillingness to simply express the larger number in the first bet; however, a risk-inclined individual always values more over what they have and so they would be compelled to keep betting. Therefore rationality is mutually exclusive with risk-inclination. Furthermore if the betting person is risk averse, then $A is strictly less than $P for some minimum value of $P.
   
4. Some confident rational individual might argue no such number $A exists for them because they’re so good they can start all over if they lose and earn a new fortune; and it would at first glance seem this individual is correct.
   

Many logical conclusions result:
A. An honest estimate for $A irrefutably reveals a hidden upper bound for this individual’s “Utility Curve”. Specifically if the function A’($A) = A’ maps to utility derived by $A dollar denominated “wealth”, then no amount of dollars even exists for this individual to choose to bet. Mathematically: “Net worth” > “Bet value” => “Net worth” > “50% times upside minus 50% times downside” => A’($A) > .5A’($A+$P) - .5A’($A) => 1.5A’($A) > .5A’($A+$P) => 3A’($A) > A’($A+$P) for all values of $P (The left hand-side must be greater or the bet would not be declined by a rational individual.)
B. 3A’ is not presently purchasable with any amount of dollars. 3A’ may be purchased in some future marketplace, (possibly with less than A future dollars), in the form of a medical breakthrough or buying future children birthday presents, but it is not currently purchasable in the present as demonstrated by the individual’s refusal to bet. Conversely A future dollars may lose “purchasing power” of just A’ if the future marketplace is inferior. Therefore true material-worth is fundamentally a function of the marketplace and cannot even be expressed in terms of dollars.
C. Most choosing to bet would logically express the upside payout $P as a sequence of 9s. Many more would know to use powers of powers. Knowledge of Knuth’s Up Arrow Notation could simultaneously save time and yield considerably “more upside”. Due consideration for exactly how much time should be spent writing out fantastically large numbers reveals an irrefutably objective hidden limiting factor: this person’s lifetime - measurable in units of time. This reveals one of two hidden domains on which value must be measured - TIME!
D. From this it directly follows that the confident individual in (4) is wrong. Some number $A<$P must exist, EVEN FOR THEM. However this individual is sure $A doesn’t and keeps writing numbers out for $P until they die. Therefore $A for them equals the number they have written out at time of death, never having played the game. I believe this is the definition of a Darwinian unfit capitalist - completely inconsistent with the Ideal Capitalist.
Analysis
The argument above establishes a horizontal bound for utility – lifetime measurable in units of time. It also establishes a finite upper bound for utility itself (represented by the area of the “utility rectangle” - see spreadsheet). This implies a finite upper bound for the rectangle’s height must exist; and this is empirically supported by the observation that billionaires are not known to blow through their life fortune in any short-period of time.
So why does any sufficiently wealthy capitalist focus on earning more dollars and die before exhausting most/all of their dollars (last death if family inheritance involved)? If sufficiently wealthy, material wealth is necessarily a bounded function of The Time Period, or the “quality and Quantity of the Marketplace”. TTP = qQMP >= qQoL. In other words, the marketplace itself is secretly an asset for every Capitalist!
qMP(TTP) = Max quality of life, or “max utility per hour” available for purchase in TTP QMP(TTP) = Max Quantity of life, or “max utility” for purchase in TTP (IE a longer vacation or medicine)
Thus on the micro level, quality weights are utility weights; and utility weights are capped by The Time Period. Thus it is the case that for every (finite) individual, a finite upper bound for utility is self-measurable in Time Period-Weighted Time (qwt = TPWT). For example: 2020 hours have far more value to any sufficiently rational and wealthy individual (SRWI) than 1920 hours. And as the earlier questionnaire (hopefully) shows, this is realizable by most middle-class people today. In other words, today’s middle class is sufficiently wealthy to the extent TPWT resolves the Rockefeller paradox. Footnote8: The size of the middle class itself is unfortunately shrinking. This has potential to result in negative externalities for all.
Since an Ideal Capitalist maximizes self-material-wealth above all else, then if they were also sufficiently wealthy, they would measure value in Time-Period-Weighted Hours since they would always purchase maximum utility per hour. This is by definition, since any SRWI has all necessary means to purchase max utility available per hour. (Note just how important quick access to true information would be.) Footnote 9: Neuroscience could use Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) to objectively measure the Micro-Economic utility unit as “Neurotransmitter-Molecular-Count Weighted Hours”. Consideration for how to weight different neurotransmitters (like Serotonin vs Dopamine) would be necessary. For now, we are all similar enough for “time” to suffice, at least for short run measurements. For example: what is the penalty for severe crimes? “Time in jail” or death (all the person’s time).
Quantifying the Marketplace
Given the average life expectancy now is more than twice that of prehistoric man, the marketplace itself is worth strictly more than 50% of any sufficiently wealthy individual’s “asset portfolio”. Just note “time is money”. Footnote 10: They need not be rational to "realize" this time, so long as their doctor is sufficiently competent. "Realization" will come in the form of living longer, quite consistent with the accounting definition of gain/loss realization.
Keynote - a Maximalist will do more than just maximize present qQ purchased. They will also divert unneeded dollars to maximize future qQMP so that more qQ is available for purchase. Thus the Maximalist calculation includes due consideration for additional dollars that will be needed given future qQ becomes available.
Squaring Theory with Reality
Most already know most of this, at least on the common-sense level. So why don’t sufficiently wealthy Capitalists invest maximum dollars with less strings attached to maximize the future? Is it because that would help everyone else and constitute socialism? No! In this context socialism is Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand”. A good Capitalist aims for precisely 0 concern about others, and any concern for implied socialism would constitute nonzero concern. Such concern would amount to incomprehensible irrationality far beneath any good Capitalist. So what else could it be?
Perhaps it’s simply the fact that much of humanity is still measuring their net-worth in the wrong dimension for the inefficient purpose of feeling superior to others with less money. Anyone currently doing this quite literally knows the price of everything and the value of nothing, not even their own self fortune, because they are using the wrong dimension of measurement. quality-weighted-time is the objectively correct way in which real value should be measured, and quality weighting is limited only by The Time Period in which time and money are being spent.
More noteworthy, any human mistaking dollars for qwt for this scorekeeping reason is still violating the prime rule of being a good Capitalist - they are demonstrating nonzero-concern for what others think of them. Implicitly and inefficiently, these individuals are expressing negative concern for others, as now is measurable by how worse off they are in units of their time. Specifically this is calculable as the opportunity cost of not investing more dollars for an enhanced future marketplace, measurable by others in said marketplace by the cost to this imperfect capitalist’s life expectancy, (all unitized in units of time).
Equity Miracle Swap Instruments
Perhaps the above explanations are not exhaustive of the full truth. Maybe some sufficiently wealthy Capitalists simply do not have the means to invest their dollars in a way that can reliably pay greater dividends. Therefore I propose a new type of financial derivative instrument called an “Equity Miracle Swap”. These would be voluntarily issued as contracts from the mega-wealthy. Here is a hypothetical example:
Rational (and thus risk averse) Billionaire-G (BG) possessing $100B in dollar-denominated-capital can now do research and will likely find they are genetically predisposed to a (presently) incurable illness (let’s say Small Cell Lung Cancer = SCLC). BG could use the chancy math in the proof above and might determine that Billions $91-$100 have minimal true value to him/herself when converted to qwt. Therefore BG could decide to start up an enterprise to find a cure for SCLC and use a $10B Equity Miracle Swap = EMSSCLC-$10B, or just “EMS” for short. The purpose is to maximally incent the researchers, who might otherwise just be employees. The contract would stipulate that all equity in the enterprise transfers over to the research team only upon successful development of the cure.
When measured in dollars, the payoff for BG is represented by the performance of the stock, which is greater than -$10B if no cure; or -$10B if the miracle cure is found. The former is greater than the latter. Which do you think BG will prefer? Obviously the latter, especially if they wind up contracting SCLC in the future! But the former was greater measured in dollars? How to reconcile?
This can be quantitatively reconciled by using the correct unit of measurement - qwt. Here is how: the newly discovered cure might empower their remaining dollars to purchase considerably more qwt in the future. The real expected return on investment for BG could be calculated actuarially as follows: Expected ROI = { Expected Return }/{ Investment } = { E(Δqwt | Miracle) * [ P(Miracle | EMS) - P(Miracle | no EMS) ] }/{ A’($100B) - A’($90B) } Where: 1. A’($D) maps to utility measured in quality-weighted-time presently purchasable by D dollars 2. E(Δqwt | Miracle) = Expected change in purchasable qwt given miracle cure occurs in lifetime 3. P(Miracle | Event X) = Probability of Miracle given Event X
Note that because BG is risk averse, diminishing returns render billions $91-$100 worth very little qwt. Therefore the cost in the denominator = A’($100B) - A’($90B) constitutes a very small amount of qwt, rendering the expected ROI very large, even for relatively small changes to P(Miracle). Obviously the lawyers could tinker with the terms of the contract. Finally note that society is incidentally made better off if the cure is found.
Macro-Economic qwt
Please now consider the benefit of a qwt-centric model from a Macro-Economic standpoint in the context of the Doomsday Clock, where as always, economics can objectively measure value (or “GDP”) in units of quality-weighted-time. On this Macro scale, the quantity unit will be "Healthy Human Hours", calculated as always by multiplying quality weights of presently healthy humans, with units of time, where any human is healthy if he/she produces more future human hours. Note how naturally maternity and child-raising now fit into GDP.
This may also help resolve the argument over which crimes should be punishable with incarceration - specifically only crimes where the individual is deemed likely to contribute less negative future qwt to GDP when in jail vs when out of jail. Also there is a natural extension of this for the death penalty, although I do not wish to make such moral judgements. Footnote 10: Any argument that population overgrowth leads to mass death is correct. Policy models need only step back and estimate healthy human hours in the more distant future. Calculus can be used to model public policy decisions from present-day infinitely far into the future and compare infinite relativities for different policy options.
Also consider that actuarial modeling could be used to objectively estimate the cost of disinformation posed to every Capitalist on the planet, measurable of course, in units of time. Specifically calculated as expected changes to Humanity’s Expectation of Life on the Doomsday Clock, plus individual life expectancy given Midnight, times the probability of midnight. Also observe the need and means for due discount in modeling the "decrease" in the future qQMP (which might include radiation).
The Emergence of Economic Symbiogenesis
Try to arrive at the conclusion any good Capitalist must. Here is a hint - genetic Symbiogenesis resulted in the planetary-wide cooperation of all plant and animal life to regulate Earth’s Oxygen concentration. Note the immense success is, of course, measured in qwt. Weighting in this context needs to satisfy the same tautology as always. Therefore the final answer on this Mega-Macro scale comes in organism-count-weighted units of time. This is the current game strategy that genetic Evolution has concluded on Earth to date. It came from pitting individual selfish microbial interests against one another in the 0-rules game of survival of the fittest. The result is the current marriage between the Plant and Animal Kingdoms! (Like all great marriages there are still a few mentionable skirmishes.)
Also observe the micro-macro relational analogue between Chloroplasts and Mitochondria with Plants and Animals. Consider how this might analogize individual decision making with the marketplace as a whole.
If you are religious, consider just how correct this implies your understanding of God’s wish for the general wellbeing of every individual to be.
My conclusion is that there is a trail of breadcrumbs for our species to follow and we’ve had the right idea all along. We’ve just been doing the math wrong. Now every decision maker can better understand how to measure their own self-fortune and get to growing it faster!
Also interesting is the game theoretic argument for why every person must be allowed full forgiveness - it is the only way world leaders who are concerned for their own wellbeing could possibly embrace such a model. Astonishingly full forgiveness is 100% consistent with every major religion’s claim of what God hopes all of us can achieve. In economics, any desire for revenge can now be seen as The Sunk Cost Fallacy, measurable as always in units of qwt.
Finally, I wish to conjecture that a new Nash Equilibrium is available to our race: Perpetual peacetime under the individual Pareto Optimal Strategy of Ideal Capitalism as every individual looks to maximize their self-fortune and troll farms are voluntarily dismantled. If this sounds too good to be true, note that it very well may have been for all of human-history save the last few decades.
Key Technological Developments 1. The advent of nuclear weapons which align all of humanity's interests in a way which never used to exist. Even survivors of a nuclear war will be far worse off, now as measurable by decreases to the quality and Quantity of any future radioactive marketplace. Less qwt for purchase! 2. The advent of the internet renders information around the globe nearly free and instantaneous. If we can learn to be more self-interested, the only conclusion which rationally follows is to dismantle all troll farms for the simple purpose of maximizing Macro Time until Doomsday. The New Nash Equilibrium available to our race could be quantitatively modeled with actuarial techniques, and the optimal solution is to push Midnight infinitely far into the future by allowing every rational decision maker the means to make rational decisions with 100% true information. The internet sets up a worldwide analogy with our nervous system.
Footnote 11 - The Micro-Economic Model is now consistent with John Lennon's definition of life success: happiness. When asked what he wanted to “be” when he grew up, John responded "happy". John’s teacher thought he misunderstood the question. If John's teacher had instead followed up with the question to quantify: "How happy do you want to be?" - John could have replied: "as happy as possible for all my years.”
Footnote 12 - Warren Buffet's advice to "do what you love so you never work a day in your life" is quantified naturally by the model. I hope that more will start to take this advice. The qwt-centric-micro-model shows they will quite literally be made richer as a result. Given that richer people tend to contribute more to GDP, society will be made incidentally better off as a result. Star Trek almost had it but missed two words: “we work to better ourselves, and incidentally, the rest of mankind”.

Visuals
KEYNOTE - Below includes an original proof that for every rational individual, The Von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility Function is bounded from above. The proof starts below: “Proof Reductio ad Absurdum”.
Economic Symbiogenesis
Thomas J Novak
Disclaimers 1. I wish to contend that Micro and Macro Economics each constitute a hidden branch of evolution. To be clear, I’m not arguing for an analogy, ​I’m arguing each branch is an evolutionary process; and with this comes the mathematical framework needed to scientifically ​objectify success (major goal for every Capitalist). 2. The quantitative aspects are partially rooted in Game Theoretic Evolution. I do not expect this theory will garner majority support or ​understanding. It is only an esoteric theoretical ideal; but it is my hope that this will gradually change until one-day we have a Utopia. 3. The mechanism is voluntary through rational self-incentives. It advocates for a change in perspective for optimal decision making purposes. 4. Dollars and other fiat currencies are still completely necessary. Fiat currency constitutes a valuable technology that eliminates the need for ​bartering, yielding considerable savings in life’s prime asset - TIME. 5. I apologize to the reader in advance for the long essay. I hope it is "worth" your time.
Key Conclusions
Present day humanity is full of capitalists that have the right idea but are missing some key math. This is causing them to behave inefficiently in the context of their own self-interests. Ideal Capitalism is Pareto Optimal and should be practiced by all; and it should lead to maximal economic growth. I also wish to conjecture that a new Nash Equilibrium is available to our race: Perpetual peacetime under the individual Pareto Optimal Strategy of Ideal Capitalism as every individual looks to maximize their self-fortune and troll farms are voluntarily dismantled. If this sounds too good to be true, note that it very well may have been for all of human-history save the last few decades. Key developments are nuclear weapons and the internet. Discussed more in the last section.
Introduction
The "science" of Economics is not yet a science. Don't get me wrong - micro-economics is just about there; but macro-econ is a totally different story. Some call it “The Dismal Science” because it makes many quantitative claims that are inconsistent with empirical data. An example is the claim that John Rockefeller’s fortune could be made comparable to contemporary fortunes by adjusting his dollars for inflation and real growth. In fact only adjusting his hours for real growth does the trick.
In general macro-econ has a zero-sum-dollar-centric structure that does not allow for input of things like maternity and child rearing - two fundamentally "valuable" human activities. Another problem is that planetary-wide risks like war, (and that which is assured by "Mutually Assured Destruction" (MAD)), are not naturally measurable in dollars.
Some concepts from financial mathematics and science can generalize economic measurements into a co-compatible theory that almost seems too simple to be necessary. Basic results agree with common sense in every way. Some conclusions are so obvious the calculation seems pointless. Others might be beyond common sense similar to the notion that the Earth on which one walks is anything but flat. The former supports credence for the latter. All examples of human stupidity supports a need for all of it.
Ideal Capitalism
Most powers past through present can be thought cold, "calculating”, and self-interested; and most presently embrace association with Capitalism. Paradoxically, human history, (even recent), is a litany of fighting and stupidity and hurt feelings. These are inefficiencies from the Capitalist perspective, so something must be wrong with these “calculations”.
The argument will start with a Micro-Economic exercise intended to provide quantitative framework to measure just how unCapitalistic many present-day capitalists are acting, by unitizing all their actions in a scientific manner. Any Capitalist wishing to maximize their net-worth will be made more materialistically rich simply by maintaining complete indifference about others, understanding the entire picture, and trusting numbers. Wall Street can confirm this is its goal.
“Complete indifference” means precisely 0 concern for anything other than material-self-worth and 100% concern for material-self-worth. Nonzero concern for others, positive or negative, is suboptimal since it distracts from the objective of maximizing self-worth. Footnote 1: “Others” does not include the friends and family category. All intentional altruism can be represented easily by having those individuals' interests summed and grouped together so as to be viewed as part of the Capitalist’s “self-interest”. All reasoning forward is unaffected by how many friends and family are now implied to be included.
The results can empower all decision makers to calculate in the only way possible: with actual mathematics. The numbers will sometimes disagree with intuition; but the numbers will always be correct. The optimal strategy will hardly change except for sufficiently wealthy individuals. The proof can be seen empirically by back-testing the model in history on the domain in which all success is measured: quality-weighted-time (qwt). The definition of qwt will leverage Game Theoretic Evolution and is discussed more below.
Some conclusions may be counterintuitive similar to the way natural selection favored Symbiogenesis; but maximum profit calls for absolute “trust” in numbers above all else - exactly as exhibited in microbial evolution. Any call for “selfless” acting resulting in benefits to others is strictly incidental; and any less is unselfishly selfish in that it renders this inefficient capitalist less wealthy than maximally possible.
Step 1 - Any political bias about aiding others should be deleted. An “Ideal Capitalist” expresses precisely 0 concern for others and what others think - no more, no less. As long as an individual is correctly acting in their own best interests, they are acting as a Capitalist. Contra-positively one can claim to be a capitalist and act inefficiently against their own interests as many “capitalists” will be shown are doing today. I suggest a new term “Maximalist” to mean an Ideal Capitalist and avoid the need for case sensitivity.
Step 2 - Success Spawns Success. What is meant by quality-weighted-time? The definition comes from the only objective arbiter possible: Evolution through Survival of the Fittest. Something is “fit”, or “successful”, if it results in more quantity (Q) or more quality (q), where more quality means it produced more Quantity faster - which renders it more successful. This is The Tautology of Evolutionary Game Theory (The Tautology). For any evolutionary process, quantity is the metric which quantifies success. Quality is measured in quantity per unit of time (q=Q/t). Note that multiplying q=Q/t with t yields Q=qwt: the metric of success that necessarily satisfies The Tautology. Footnote 2: The word “tautology” is meant in the propositional logic sense. No negative connotation should be inferred.
Step 3 - How to connect economics with evolution?
Micro-economic decision strategy for trading time (t) for dollars ($), (or $ for t), amounts to a “phenotype”, (or observable trait), coded for by genetics inherited or mutated, and ideas learned or created. Respectively: - Inherited genetics constrain every rational human to be “risk averse”, regardless of self-perception, because natural selection favored and continues to favor risk aversion. Defined below and proven further below. - Mutated genes are almost never favorable for a human so this case will be discarded (although this force is quite powerful over quintillions of human-hours). - Richard Dawkins creatively postulated ideas to be “memes”: new evolutionarily viable packets of information, subject to selection forces, as they spread from person to person with varying levels of success overtime. Respectively gene inheritance and mutation is analogous to meme learning and creation. Furthermore the economy can be seen as a subsection of the biosphere governed primarily by evolution through forces of selection. The economy evolves through selection of both genes and memes, and memes are more abstract; but this should not change anything about the evolutionary game theory. After all humanity itself is naturally occurring, so Artificial Selection of Genes and Memes can be seen as a more complex extended phenotype coded for by the evolution of genes through Natural Selection. Any argument that “Artificial Selection” constitutes a meaningful difference from “Natural Selection” must first come to terms with the observation that humanity is itself, naturally occurring.
Step 4 - What is the definition of “risk averse”? The mathematical definition of risk averse simply requires diminishing returns to be experienced on assets like dollars. For example: an additional $1M adds less “utility” if you presently have $2B, compared to if you presently have $2M. If a person is not risk averse, then more success encourages more risky behavior. This is inconsistent with the observation that more success means one has more to lose. Therefore any risk-inclined individual cannot be an Ideal Capitalist as they will almost surely go broke gambling.
Step 5 - What is “utility”? Utility is the abstract micro-economic concept that, by definition, quantifies value. The unsettled question of how to actually do this is addressed below.
Total Utility = True Material Self-Worth = “well-offness”. All have one-to-one correspondence with each other. All are “mutually inclusive”. For example: twice the quantity of utility, by definition, means twice material self-worth; and so, the individual is exactly twice better-off. Diminishing returns do not apply to quantities of utility.
Step 6 - How to define an objective function to maximize utility? Per Wikipedia: “Consider a set of alternatives facing an individual, and over which the individual has a preference ordering. A ‘utility function’ is able to represent those preferences if it is possible to assign a real number to each alternative, in such a way that alternative A is assigned a number greater than alternative B if, and only if, the individual prefers alternative A to alternative B.”
Keynote: dollars are not material wealth, dollars buy material wealth, with diminishing returns, limited by genes, memes, and the quality and Quantity of the Marketplace (respectively qQMP).
To illustrate this, consider how rich you would be with $1T cash on Mars in the present day marketplace. Personally as an oxygen breathing Capitalist, I would view my self-worth as constituting a liability - measurable in my personal subjective frame of reference in units of time, weighted by some self-knowable quality of life representing the quantity of misery per hour that I experience dying alone. Presently the quality of the marketplace on Mars is exactly 0 because 0 quantity is available for purchase. Footnote 3: The quality of life purchasable given the Time and Place is shown below to be bounded from above, although it is by no means bounded from below.
Back to Earth. If sufficiently rich, then maximizing material wealth calls for buying everything in desired amounts to maximize present quality of Life (qoL), holding ample dollars in reserve to spend on future quality (like a fancier vacation) and future quantity (like a longer vacation), and allocating the rest to increase future qQ which is not presently available for purchase (any new invention). In keeping with The Tautology, quality enhancements will provide for faster consumption of Quantity (Q=qwt). Note how perfectly this fits with The Tautology.
Ideally a good Capitalist with sufficient dollars would employ a strategy so as to maximize qoL at every point in time by exhausting most/all dollars by death. Any argument that an individual cannot meaningfully increase future qQMP fails. As an example: a medical breakthrough for genetic predispositions could yield considerably more time for any one capitalist, with expected returns modeled via actuarial mathematics. Consider just how far Humanity has come since the birth of The Enlightenment - it is easy to see how the not-so-distant future may include considerably more qQoL for sale. (Conversely the future may include far less qQoL if macro-decision-public-policy modeling continues to fail to quantify/unitize the cost of war - discussed more in the Macro Economic qwt section below.)
Quality enhancements, although more subjective, can be substantially accelerated by one talented individual. Examples include Albert Einstein, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk. All are responsible for inventing and/or producing new things which I personally enjoy - the qQoL that I can purchase is greater as a result of their work. My time and money could not purchase such things if they were not invented. As discussed next, micro-economic quality weights are quality of Life (qoL) weights. They have an upper bound that can be “objectively” unitized and measured by the self-interested party's own frame of reference.
Step 7 - How can an individual objectively define an upper bound for these inherently subjective quality weights with any mathematical rigor? Is it possible to prove dollars can only buy so much utility? Yes!
Proof Reductio ad Absurdum
Ripping off an idea from one of the greatest thinkers ever - I propose a financial thought experiment: pretend it is possible for you to pause all of society and gamble at the “Name Your Winnings Casino”.
Here you can choose entering into an even bet: 50% of the time you win the largest number of dollars you can mathematically express = $P; or 50% of the time you suffer absolute ruin: the casino takes everything of material value and your dollars and returns you to the real world where no insurance policies exist for you and no friends or family are able to ease your loss by lending a couch to sleep on or pulling strings for a job offeinterview. If you lose you reenter the world a naked homeless person “worth” exactly $0 and you can never play again.
Four observations follow:

1. The decision to bet is made independent of any consideration of others, consistent with the Ideal Capitalist.
   
2. Any sane human with the smallest capacity for self-honestly could conservatively estimate a walk-away number A, (denominated in dollars), such that if present “net worth” is greater than $A then no bet.
   
3. No rational person choosing to bet would play more than once because either they’d lose or they’d win $P and have received the payout they named. “Letting it ride” constitutes an obviously dumb decision born out of the unwillingness to simply express the larger number in the first bet; however, a risk-inclined individual always values more over what they have and so they would be compelled to keep betting. Therefore rationality is mutually exclusive with risk-inclination. Furthermore if the betting person is risk averse, then $A is strictly less than $P for some minimum value of $P.
   
4. Some confident rational individual might argue no such number $A exists for them because they’re so good they can start all over if they lose and earn a new fortune; and it would at first glance seem this individual is correct.
   

Many logical conclusions result:
A. An honest estimate for $A irrefutably reveals a hidden upper bound for this individual’s “Utility Curve”. Specifically if the function A’($A) = A’ maps to utility derived by $A dollar denominated “wealth”, then no amount of dollars even exists for this individual to choose to bet. Mathematically: “Net worth” > “Bet value” => A’($A) > .5A’($A+$P) +.50 => 2A’(A) > A’($A+$P) for all values of $P (The left hand-side must be greater or the bet would not be declined by a rational individual.)
B. 2A’ is not presently purchasable with any amount of dollars. 2A’ may be purchased in some future marketplace, (possibly with less than A future dollars), in the form of a medical breakthrough or buying future children birthday presents, but it is not currently purchasable in the present as demonstrated by the individual’s refusal to bet. Conversely A future dollars may lose “purchasing power” of just A’ if the future marketplace is inferior. Therefore true material-worth is fundamentally a function of the marketplace and cannot even be expressed in terms of dollars.
C. Most choosing to bet would logically express the upside payout $P as a sequence of 9s. Many more would know to use powers of powers. Knowledge of Knuth’s Up Arrow Notation could simultaneously save time and yield considerably “more upside”. Due consideration for exactly how much time should be spent writing out fantastically large numbers reveals an irrefutably objective hidden limiting factor: this person’s lifetime - measurable in units of time. This reveals one of two hidden domains on which value must be measured - TIME!
D. From this it directly follows that the confident individual in (4) is wrong. Some number $A greater than $P must exist, EVEN FOR THEM. However this individual is sure $A doesn’t and keeps writing numbers out for $P until they die. Therefore $A for them equals the number they have written out at time of death, never having played the game. I believe this is the definition of a Darwinian unfit capitalist - completely inconsistent with the Ideal Capitalist.
Analysis
The argument above establishes a horizontal bound for utility – lifetime measurable in units of time. It also establishes a finite upper bound for utility itself (represented by the area of the “utility rectangle” - see spreadsheet). This implies a finite upper bound for the rectangle’s height must exist; and this is empirically supported by the observation that billionaires are not known to blow through their life fortune in any short-period of time.
So why does any sufficiently wealthy capitalist focus on earning more dollars and die before exhausting most/all of their dollars (last death if family inheritance involved)? If sufficiently wealthy, material wealth is necessarily a bounded function of The Time Period, or the “quality and Quantity of the Marketplace”. TTP = qQMP >= qQoL. In other words, the marketplace itself is secretly an asset for every Capitalist!
qMP(TTP) = Max quality of life, or “max utility per hour” available for purchase in TTP QMP(TTP) = Max Quantity of life, or “max utility” for purchase in TTP (IE a longer vacation or medicine)
Thus on the micro level, quality weights are utility weights; and utility weights are capped by The Time Period. Thus it is the case that for every (finite) individual, a finite upper bound for utility is self-measurable in Time Period-Weighted Time (qwt = TPWT). For example: 2020 hours have far more value to any sufficiently rational and wealthy individual (SRWI) than 1920 hours. And as the earlier questionnaire (hopefully) shows, this is realizable by most middle-class people today. In other words, today’s middle class is sufficiently wealthy to the extent TPWT resolves the Rockefeller paradox. Footnote8: The size of the middle class itself is unfortunately shrinking. This has potential to result in negative externalities for all.
Since an Ideal Capitalist maximizes self-material-wealth above all else, then if they were also sufficiently wealthy, they would measure value in Time-Period-Weighted Hours since they would always purchase maximum utility per hour. This is by definition, since any SRWI has all necessary means to purchase max utility available per hour. (Note just how important quick access to true information would be.) Footnote 9: Neuroscience could use Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) to objectively measure the Micro-Economic utility unit as “Neurotransmitter-Molecular-Count Weighted Hours”. Consideration for how to weight different neurotransmitters (like Serotonin vs Dopamine) would be necessary. For now, we are all similar enough for “time” to suffice, at least for short run measurements. For example: what is the penalty for severe crimes? “Time in jail” or death (all the person’s time).
Quantifying the Marketplace
Given the average life expectancy now is more than twice that of prehistoric man, the marketplace itself is worth strictly more than 50% of any sufficiently wealthy individual’s “asset portfolio”. Just note “time is money”. Footnote 10: They need not be rational to "realize" this time, so long as their doctor is sufficiently competent. "Realization" will come in the form of living longer, quite consistent with the accounting definition of gain/loss realization.
Keynote - a Maximalist will do more than just maximize present qQ purchased. They will also divert unneeded dollars to maximize future qQMP so that more qQ is available for purchase. Thus the Maximalist calculation includes due consideration for additional dollars that will be needed given future qQ becomes available.
Squaring Theory with Reality
Most already know most of this, at least on the common-sense level. So why don’t sufficiently wealthy Capitalists invest maximum dollars with less strings attached to maximize the future? Is it because that would help everyone else and constitute socialism? No! In this context socialism is Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand”. A good Capitalist aims for precisely 0 concern about others, and any concern for implied socialism would constitute nonzero concern. Such concern would amount to incomprehensible irrationality far beneath any good Capitalist. So what else could it be?
Perhaps it’s simply the fact that much of humanity is still measuring their net-worth in the wrong dimension for the inefficient purpose of feeling superior to others with less money. Anyone currently doing this quite literally knows the price of everything and the value of nothing, not even their own self fortune, because they are using the wrong dimension of measurement. quality-weighted-time is the objectively correct way in which real value should be measured, and quality weighting is limited only by The Time Period in which time and money are being spent.
More noteworthy, any human mistaking dollars for qwt for this scorekeeping reason is still violating the prime rule of being a good Capitalist - they are demonstrating nonzero-concern for what others think of them. Implicitly and inefficiently, these individuals are expressing negative concern for others, as now is measurable by how worse off they are in units of their time. Specifically this is calculable as the opportunity cost of not investing more dollars for an enhanced future marketplace, measurable by others in said marketplace by the cost to this imperfect capitalist’s life expectancy, (all unitized in units of time).
Equity Miracle Swap Instruments
Perhaps the above explanations are not exhaustive of the full truth. Maybe some sufficiently wealthy Capitalists simply do not have the means to invest their dollars in a way that can reliably pay greater dividends. Therefore I propose a new type of financial derivative instrument called an “Equity Miracle Swap”. These would be voluntarily issued as contracts from the mega-wealthy. Here is a hypothetical example:
Rational (and thus risk averse) Billionaire-G (BG) possessing $100B in dollar-denominated-capital can now do research and will likely find they are genetically predisposed to a (presently) incurable illness (let’s say Small Cell Lung Cancer = SCLC). BG could use the chancy math in the proof above and might determine that Billions $91-$100 have minimal true value to him/herself when converted to qwt. Therefore BG could decide to start up an enterprise to find a cure for SCLC and use a $10B Equity Miracle Swap = EMSSCLC-$10B, or just “EMS” for short. The purpose is to maximally incent the researchers, who might otherwise just be employees. The contract would stipulate that all equity in the enterprise transfers over to the research team only upon successful development of the cure.
When measured in dollars, the payoff for BG is represented by the performance of the stock, which is greater than -$10B if no cure; or -$10B if the miracle cure is found. The former is greater than the latter. Which do you think BG will prefer? Obviously the latter, especially if they wind up contracting SCLC in the future! But the former was greater measured in dollars? How to reconcile?
This can be quantitatively reconciled by using the correct unit of measurement - qwt. Here is how: the newly discovered cure might empower their remaining dollars to purchase considerably more qwt in the future. The real expected return on investment for BG could be calculated actuarially as follows: Expected ROI = { Expected Return }/{ Investment } = { E(Δqwt | Miracle) * [ P(Miracle | EMS) - P(Miracle | no EMS) ] }/{ A’($100B) - A’($90B) } Where: 1. A’($D) maps to utility measured in quality-weighted-time presently purchasable by D dollars 2. E(Δqwt | Miracle) = Expected change in purchasable qwt given miracle cure occurs in lifetime 3. P(Miracle | Event X) = Probability of Miracle given Event X
Note that because BG is risk averse, diminishing returns render billions $91-$100 worth very little qwt. Therefore the cost in the denominator = A’($100B) - A’($90B) constitutes a very small amount of qwt, rendering the expected ROI very large, even for relatively small changes to P(Miracle). Obviously the lawyers could tinker with the terms of the contract. Finally note that society is incidentally made better off if the cure is found.
Macro-Economic qwt
Please now consider the benefit of a qwt-centric model from a Macro-Economic standpoint in the context of the Doomsday Clock, where as always, economics can objectively measure value (or “GDP”) in units of quality-weighted-time. On this Macro scale, the quantity unit will be "Healthy Human Hours", calculated as always by multiplying quality weights of presently healthy humans, with units of time, where any human is healthy if he/she produces more future human hours. Note how naturally maternity and child-raising now fit into GDP.
This may also help resolve the argument over which crimes should be punishable with incarceration - specifically only crimes where the individual is deemed likely to contribute less negative future qwt to GDP when in jail vs when out of jail. Also there is a natural extension of this for the death penalty, although I do not wish to make such moral judgements. Footnote 10: Any argument that population overgrowth leads to mass death is correct. Policy models need only step back and estimate healthy human hours in the more distant future. Calculus can be used to model public policy decisions from present-day infinitely far into the future and compare infinite relativities for different policy options.
Also consider that actuarial modeling could be used to objectively estimate the cost of disinformation posed to every Capitalist on the planet, measurable of course, in units of time. Specifically calculated as expected changes to Humanity’s Expectation of Life on the Doomsday Clock, plus individual life expectancy given Midnight, times the probability of midnight. Also observe the need and means for due discount in modeling the "decrease" in the future qQMP (which might include radiation).
The Emergence of Economic Symbiogenesis
Try to arrive at the conclusion any good Capitalist must. Here is a hint - genetic Symbiogenesis resulted in the planetary-wide cooperation of all plant and animal life to regulate Earth’s Oxygen concentration. Note the immense success is, of course, measured in qwt. Weighting in this context needs to satisfy the same tautology as always. Therefore the final answer on this Mega-Macro scale comes in organism-count-weighted units of time. This is the current game strategy that genetic Evolution has concluded on Earth to date. It came from pitting individual selfish microbial interests against one another in the 0-rules game of survival of the fittest. The result is the current marriage between the Plant and Animal Kingdoms! (Like all great marriages there are still a few mentionable skirmishes.)
Also observe the micro-macro relational analogue between Chloroplasts and Mitochondria with Plants and Animals. Consider how this might analogize individual decision making with the marketplace as a whole.
If you are religious, consider just how correct this implies your understanding of God’s wish for the general wellbeing of every individual to be.
My conclusion is that there is a trail of breadcrumbs for our species to follow and we’ve had the right idea all along. We’ve just been doing the math wrong. Now every decision maker can better understand how to measure their own self-fortune and get to growing it faster!
Also interesting is the game theoretic argument for why every person must be allowed full forgiveness - it is the only way world leaders who are concerned for their own wellbeing could possibly embrace such a model. Astonishingly full forgiveness is 100% consistent with every major religion’s claim of what God hopes all of us can achieve. In economics, any desire for revenge can now be seen as The Sunk Cost Fallacy, measurable as always in units of qwt.
Finally, I wish to conjecture that a new Nash Equilibrium is available to our race: Perpetual peacetime under the individual Pareto Optimal Strategy of Ideal Capitalism as every individual looks to maximize their self-fortune and troll farms are voluntarily dismantled. If this sounds too good to be true, note that it very well may have been for all of human-history save the last few decades.
Key Technological Developments 1. The advent of nuclear weapons which align all of humanity's interests in a way which never used to exist. Even survivors of a nuclear war will be far worse off, now as measurable by decreases to the quality and Quantity of any future radioactive marketplace. Less qwt for purchase! 2. The advent of the internet renders information around the globe nearly free and instantaneous. If we can learn to be more self-interested, the only conclusion which rationally follows is to dismantle all troll farms for the simple purpose of maximizing Macro Time until Doomsday. The New Nash Equilibrium available to our race could be quantitatively modeled with actuarial techniques, and the optimal solution is to push Midnight infinitely far into the future by allowing every rational decision maker the means to make rational decisions with 100% true information. The internet sets up a worldwide analogy with our nervous system.
Footnote 11 - The Micro-Economic Model is now consistent with John Lennon's definition of life success: happiness. When asked what he wanted to “be” when he grew up, John responded "happy". John’s teacher thought he misunderstood the question. If John's teacher had instead followed up with the question to quantify: "How happy do you want to be?" - John could have replied: "as happy as possible for all my years.”
Footnote 12 - Warren Buffet's advice to "do what you love so you never work a day in your life" is quantified naturally by the model. I hope that more will start to take this advice. The qwt-centric-micro-model shows they will quite literally be made richer as a result. Given that richer people tend to contribute more to GDP, society will be made incidentally better off as a result. Star Trek almost had it but missed two words: “we work to better ourselves, and incidentally, the rest of mankind”.

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Plair (PLA)

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SafeHaven (SHA)

• If something were to happen to you tomorrow, would your loved ones be able to access your cryptocurrencies and/or crypto-assets? A grieving spouse should not have to worry the thought "how am I gonna pay my mortgage this month?" or "how am I gonna fill my car up with oil?", or "how am I going to pay my kids' orphanage bills?". SafeHaven is the blockchain-based solution to prevent such scenarios.
  
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Cahrenheit (CAH)

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I really like the way reddit user mothprophet has set up their class ideas, so I am going to do a general layout like his.
The "Luck Mage/Fortune Teller" is not a spec for those interested in min/maxing damage. It's more of a fun utility spec that can really shift the tide of battle. So far, I've been having a lot of fun with this build, despite its lack of punch. It's niche, but fills in nicely to a group, because it can really serve as an enabler for other players. It also makes for some strong RP, and can serve as a powerful face to the party.
This build comes online as early as level 6, using Wizard 2/Bard 4 (with a less powerful version at Wizard 2/Bard 1), and from there its really up to the player on how far up each they decided to go. There is plenty of overlap between spells, but the idea of this build isn't necessarily built around raw damage or utility, as much as it is influence rolls.
The idea is to run Divination Wizard for Portent and College of Lore for Bardic Inspiration/Cutting Words, alongside Variant Human to max out on as many abilities you can that help change the outcomes of dice rolls. A bit meta, but work in a backstory with selling your soul to Lady Tymora, and you've got a nice little interesting hero.
Our race is Variant Human to allow for the use of a feat at lvl 1. Using Point-Buy, stats should end up looking similar to this.

• (8) STR = -1 STR Mod
• (13) DEX = +1 DEX Mod
• (12) CON = +1 CON Mod
• (15+1) INT = +3 INT Mod
• (8) WIS = -1 WIS Mod
• (15+1) CHA = +3 CHA Mod

Variant Human Feat At level 1 we will take either the feat Lucky or the feat Magic-Initiate with a focus on Cleric.
Lucky

• Allows you the ability of 3 re-rolls per long rest on attack rolls made against you, attack rolls you make, saving throws you make, or ability score checks. This directly falls in line with our notion of a Luck Mage, as for some reason our hero just seems to always narrowly avoid what would otherwise be a bad situation.

Magic-Initiate - Cleric
*Despite using Wisdom for a casting modifer, we aren't actually taking anything that can be resisted, instead focusing on thematics and utility.
*We take the following Cantrips:

• Guidance to increase the luck of others, via touch (can be cast through Familiar)
• Thamauturgy to add to our social flare alongside cantrips such as minor illusion or prestidigitation
• For our spell, we take Level 1 Bless - usable once per Long Rest, but again, allows for our Hero to be a bit of a lucky object when he's around the others, his luck rubbing off on their attack/saving throws

Do note that whatever feat you take, you'll be taking the other feat once you get to Bard 4
Skill Variant Humans also get one skill. You can grab any skill, but I usually grab Insight for this build.
 
For your background, you can either use the "Entertainer" background, or create your own background via the PHB.
Entertainer gives us:

• Acrobatics and Performance
• Proficiency with Disguise Kit and One Musical Instrument
• An Actual Musical Instrument (In case you went Wizard for your first 2 levels for some reason).
• By Popular Demand - For those interested in roleplaying, since your character is a Luck Mage, with a bit of divining, you can flavor your entertainment to be anything from your standard sing and song, to using prestidigitation/thaumaturgy and your high insight/perception to "speak with the dead" like a medium, or read palms/tarot cards and predict the future

Custom Background gives us:

• 2 Skills - any two, so this is useful for filling up gaps between Bard and Wizard -- I usually go with Deception and Sleight of Hand off of a fortune tellemedium style theme
• 2 Tools or Languages - I recommend gaming sets: Dice, and Cards - my character tends to be a gambler and with proficiency and the amount of augmenting we can do on rolls, you can ensure you'll win an important hand (with Portent).
• Background Feature - I usually take By Popular Demand regardless, but you can grab any that you feel better fits your idea of a "Luck Mage"

 
Taking Wizard for 1st Level results in getting the following:
Two Skills from the following: Arcana, History, Insight, Investigation, Medicine, and Religion. (Bold are my picks)
Intelligence and Wisdom saving throws
1d6 Hit Dice, but you shouldn't be on the front-line, so its fine
No Armor, but you can take mage armor, and again you aren't on the front line (You'll also have portent, cutting words, and lucky)
A quarterstaff or dagger, Arcane Focus (I normally go dagger weapon, staff focus), and a Spellbook.
Three Cantrips:

• Prestidigitation - great for social
• Minor Illusion - great for social or creative combat use
• Fire Bolt - a source of ranged damage, not the best, but I like it

6 Level 1 Spells - For these I try to take a mix of utility and rituals, as rituals don't expend a spell slots. I took the following:

• Find Familiar - The only really mandatory spell, give allies advantage with the HELP action, once again playing into the idea that you're some sort of lucky charm - can also be used to give guidance via touch. The use of OWL is recommended due to Flyby not granting opportunity attacks.
  
• Mage Armor
  
• Shield
  
• Comprehend Languages
  
• Alarm
  
• Magic Missile - I bold this because it does not rely on a save, and can be used at higher multi-class spell slots when you do not have appropriate level spells (Casting at a lvl 3 slot, when you only have lvl 2 spells prepared).
  

Please note if you took level 1 feat Magic-Initiate Cleric, you will also have:

• Thaumaturgy
• Guidance
• Bless - once per long rest

 
Wizard Level 2
Level 2 for your wizard goes right into the Arcane Tradition of Divination. This grants you the ability of Portent which is another staple to our "Luck Mage/Fortune Teller" build.
Portent allows you to roll 2d20 after completing a Long Rest. You can replace any attack roll, saving throw, or ability check made by you or a creature that you can see with one of these foretelling rolls. You must choose to do so before the roll, and you can replace a roll in this way only once per turn.
Each foretelling roll can be used only once. When you finish a long rest, you lose any unused foretelling rolls.
This is exceptionally strong for our character's chosen purpose of being a "Luck Mage/Fortune Teller" as you can decide the pass or fail of dire situations. The uses of Portent are many, some examples being:

• Use High Portent Roll to secure Ally attacks hit when they absolutely need to
• Use High Portent Roll to ensure yourself or an ally passes a saving throw that is incredibly important
• Use Low Portent Roll to make a monster miss saving on a powerful charm spell
• Use Low Portent Roll to make a monster miss on its attacks
• Creative Use Enter a casino, and bet all your money on a double or nothing, and use portent to guarantee the outcome of your gambling endeavor
• Creative Use Really need to deceive/persuade/intimidate that NPC that is giving you a tough time? Portent your way to success by either lowering his roll, or boosting yours!

The best part about portent, is that it can always be flavored that your "Luck Mage/Fortune Teller" can actually see the future at times! This really helps to confuse people about just how exactly strong this character is.
 
Bard Levels
Multi-classing into Bard gets us a few nifty things. At Level 1 we intially get the following just for multi-class:
Light Armor - your AC is still garbage, but hey, at least you can wear stuff now - you still shouldn't be on the front lines though, so not a big concern
One Skill of Your Choice - This is strong, another skill really helping you settle into the role of being lucky. I usually end up taking Performance. By the time I get to this, my character's skills already look like:

• Arcana - Wizard
• Investigation -Wizard
• Insight - Human Variant
• Deception - Custom BG
• Sleight of Hand - Custom BG
• Performance - Bard Multi-class

One musical Instrument of Your Choice - Tambourine! No, but seriously, go with whatever you want here --- its mostly flavor.
Level 1
Bard's first level gives you a very strong ability in the form of bardic inspiration. With your CHA modifer at a +3, you get 3 bardic inspiration (1d6) that you can use to inspire others. These can be used on attack rolls, saving throws, or ability checks. And once again, these can be flavored either as your mage simply having its luck rub off on them, or perhaps your foresaw that your ally would succeed at something (play up the mysticism - "I sense...a moment of danger! And in that moment, you will prove to make the right decision!" )
You also gain access to:
Two Cantrips from the bard spell list - use these to fill any gaps you're already missing from Wizard/Cleric, I chose...

• Vicious Mockery - Imposing disadvantage on the next attack is pretty solid, especially when you flavor it up as "I foresee you'll trip on your next attack!"
• Light - Because why not? Mending, Message, Friends, Dancing Lights are all good, do what you want here.

Four 1st-Level Spells - Keep in mind that these spells use CHA for your casting stat, but your INT and CHA use the same modifiers here. The spells I took were...

• Bane - This just fits alongside your 1 time use bless, and again, you're lucky, your luck rubs off on your allies - the -1d4 to enemy attacks/saving throws just continues to fill that flavor
• Silent Image - Bigger Minor Illusion, and can play into the deceptive fortune-tellemedium aspect of your character!
• Hideous Laughter - Putting on so many shows with By Popular Demand has given your character a knack for a bit of comedy in his routine. He is a crowd favorite after all.
• Speak with Animals - Because why not? I like the flavor of this...especially during investigation aspects of campaigns. Who knows what the Horse of your enemy knows about the evil plans?!

Level 2
Jack of All Trades is just icing on the cake, as it adds your proficiency bonus, rounded down, to any ability check that doesn't already include your proficiency bonus. So now, you can be good on things you didn't even account for? It's that luckiness, after all.
Song of Rest is a neat little addon, because it can use soothing music or Oration to help revitalize your wounded allies. Perhaps you are having a future vision, in which you see the party becoming victorious in their quest, your eyes glazed over from Thaumaturgy, voice altered into a loud soothing monotone as your words revitalize your allies!
Level 3
College of Lore adds the final ability to your roster of "Luck Mage" altering effects, with Cutting Words. In addition, you also gain proficiency with three skills of your choice - go nuts!
Cutting Words allows you to now be able to expend one use your reaction, and expend one of your bardic inspirations to subtract the number rolled from any Attack Roll, ability check, or damage roll of a creature that you can see within 60 feet. What's that? You had a vision of that creature stumbling on its next attack? You foresaw the attack and call out to your ally just in time to have them block it? Flavor this however you want, but its perfect for our "Luck Mage/Fortune Teller" motif.
Also at level 3, you get Expertise which allows you to choose two of your current skill proficiences and double the bonus for their checks. Become even more of a skill monkey, and the ultimate party face.
Level 4
Here is where you take your second feat - Lucky or Magic-Initiate - Cleric.
 
Gameplay
There is a lot of information above, so I'll do some bullet points on just how this class is meant to be played..

• 1. Use any of the following: Bardic Inspiration, Portent, Cutting Words, Lucky, Guidance, Bane, or Bless to influence the rolls made during your game and come out on top in combat and social situations.
• 2. Have your familiar use touch spells like Guidance to bring your luckiness to others, have it use help action on your attacks. It's an Owl with Flyby so it can bounce around pretty easily and out of harms way.
• 3. In combat, when you need to dish out damage, don't be afraid to utilize Magic Missile at higher spell slots. It cannot miss, so you only run the risk of it being counterspelled (or an enemy rocking Shield as a reaction). This is solid damage for an otherwise, utility based character.
• 4. Stock up on utility spells, and work as a controller during combat. Use your utility during non-combat to help win social situations.
• 5. Really play up the mysticism and use By Popular Demand to grant your friends free room and meals at local taverns. Creative types have a chance to really flourish and embellish the RP here with your "fortune telling".
• 6. Be the party face! Everyone likes you, because you're a skill monkey. Your luck gives you an edge on most things, so don't be afraid to go for broke!

 
This guide is not meant as an end-all-be-all for how to play this type of character. I am certain some of you will note that taking Bard first can grant more skills earlier on, with higher armor class and access to more weapons. This is just how I initially came across the idea of "Luck Mage/Fortune Teller". I hope you enjoy, and go out to make your own "Luck Mage" to bring good fortune to adventuring parties and more!
  EDIT:
I made some edits here based on some of the comments for interesting ideas.

• Take 1 level of Cleric rather than magic-initiate Cleric - This allows you to run a race other than variant Human, but Lucky doesn't come online until player lvl 6. Still, opens up a variety of other ideas to toss in.
  
• Take Magic Initiate - Druid, OR take 1 level of Druid - This gives you access to: Druidcraft, Guidance, and a spell of your choice to flavor. Since guidance was what we were really after from Cleric, Druidcraft is a nice addition (as pointed out by TimReineke) because now you can foresee the weather! Even the world around you gets luckier.
  
• Don't take Magic Initiate at all, and use Magical Secrets from College of Lore to grab Bless/Guidance
  
• Run a Halfling who has their own Lucky racial feat, on top of Lucky. This saves you from having to expend Lucky when you roll your own nat 1s.
  

I really like the way reddit user mothprophet has set up their class ideas, so I am going to do a general layout like his.
The "Luck Mage/Fortune Teller" is not a spec for those interested in min/maxing damage. It's more of a fun utility spec that can really shift the tide of battle. So far, I've been having a lot of fun with this build, despite its lack of punch. It's niche, but fills in nicely to a group, because it can really serve as an enabler for other players. It also makes for some strong RP, and can serve as a powerful face to the party.
This build comes online as early as level 6, using Wizard 2/Bard 4 (with a less powerful version at Wizard 2/Bard 1), and from there its really up to the player on how far up each they decided to go. There is plenty of overlap between spells, but the idea of this build isn't necessarily built around raw damage or utility, as much as it is influence rolls.
The idea is to run Divination Wizard for Portent and College of Lore for Bardic Inspiration/Cutting Words, alongside Variant Human to max out on as many abilities you can that help change the outcomes of dice rolls. A bit meta, but work in a backstory with selling your soul to Lady Tymora, and you've got a nice little interesting hero.
Our race is Variant Human to allow for the use of a feat at lvl 1. Using Point-Buy, stats should end up looking similar to this.

• (8) STR = -1 STR Mod
• (13) DEX = +1 DEX Mod
• (12) CON = +1 CON Mod
• (15+1) INT = +3 INT Mod
• (8) WIS = -1 WIS Mod
• (15+1) CHA = +3 CHA Mod

Variant Human Feat At level 1 we will take either the feat Lucky or the feat Magic-Initiate with a focus on Cleric.
Lucky

• Allows you the ability of 3 re-rolls per long rest on attack rolls made against you, attack rolls you make, saving throws you make, or ability score checks. This directly falls in line with our notion of a Luck Mage, as for some reason our hero just seems to always narrowly avoid what would otherwise be a bad situation.

Magic-Initiate - Cleric
Despite using Wisdom for a casting modifer, we aren't actually taking anything that can be resisted, instead focusing on thematics and utility. *We take the following Cantrips: *Guidance** to increase the luck of others, via touch (can be cast through Familiar), Thamauturgy to add to our social flare alongside cantrips such as minor illusion or prestidigitation *For our spell, we take Level 1 Bless - usable once per Long Rest, but again, allows for our Hero to be a bit of a lucky object when he's around the others, his luck rubbing off on their attack/saving throws
Do note that whatever feat you take, you'll be taking the other feat once you get to Bard 4
Skill Variant Humans also get one skill. You can grab any skill, but I usually grab Insight for this build.
 
For your background, you can either use the "Entertainer" background, or create your own background via the PHB.
Entertainer gives us:

• Acrobatics and Performance
• Proficiency with Disguise Kit and One Musical Instrument
• An Actual Musical Instrument (In case you went Wizard for your first 2 levels for some reason).
• By Popular Demand - For those interested in roleplaying, since your character is a Luck Mage, with a bit of divining, you can flavor your entertainment to be anything from your standard sing and song, to using prestidigitation/thaumaturgy and your high insight/perception to "speak with the dead" like a medium, or read palms/tarot cards and predict the future

Custom Background gives us:

• 2 Skills - any two, so this is useful for filling up gaps between Bard and Wizard -- I usually go with Deception and Sleight of Hand off of a fortune tellemedium style theme
• 2 Tools or Languages - I recommend gaming sets: Dice, and Cards - my character tends to be a gambler and with proficiency and the amount of augmenting we can do on rolls, you can ensure you'll win an important hand (with Portent).
• Background Feature - I usually take By Popular Demand regardless, but you can grab any that you feel better fits your idea of a "Luck Mage"

 
Taking Wizard for 1st Level results in getting the following:
Two Skills from the following: Arcana, History, Insight, Investigation, Medicine, and Religion. (Bold are my picks) Intelligence and Wisdom saving throws 1d6 Hit Dice, but you shouldn't be on the front-line, so its fine No Armor, but you can take mage armor, and again you aren't on the front line (You'll also have portent, cutting words, and lucky) A quarterstaff or dagger, Arcane Focus (I normally go dagger weapon, staff focus), and a Spellbook. Three Cantrips: * Prestidigitation - great for social * Minor Illusion - great for social or creative combat use * Fire Bolt - a source of ranged damage, not the best, but I like it
6 Level 1 Spells - For these I try to take a mix of utility and rituals, as rituals don't expend a spell slots. I took the following:

• Find Familiar - The only really mandatory spell, give allies advantage with the HELP action, once again playing into the idea that you're some sort of lucky charm - can also be used to give guidance via touch. The use of OWL is recommended due to Flyby not granting opportunity attacks.
  
• Mage Armor
  
• Shield
  
• Comprehend Languages
  
• Alarm
  
• Magic Missile - I bold this because it does not rely on a save, and can be used at higher multi-class spell slots when you do not have appropriate level spells (Casting at a lvl 3 slot, when you only have lvl 2 spells prepared).
  

Please note if you took level 1 feat Magic-Initiate Cleric, you will also have:

• Thaumaturgy
• Guidance
• Bless - once per long rest

 
Wizard Level 2
Level 2 for your wizard goes right into the Arcane Tradition of Divination. This grants you the ability of Portent which is another staple to our "Luck Mage/Fortune Teller" build.
Portent allows you to roll 2d20 after completing a Long Rest. You can replace any attack roll, saving throw, or ability check made by you or a creature that you can see with one of these foretelling rolls. You must choose to do so before the roll, and you can replace a roll in this way only once per turn.
Each foretelling roll can be used only once. When you finish a long rest, you lose any unused foretelling rolls.
This is exceptionally strong for our character's chosen purpose of being a "Luck Mage/Fortune Teller" as you can decide the pass or fail of dire situations. The uses of Portent are many, some examples being:

• Use High Portent Roll to secure Ally attacks hit when they absolutely need to
• Use High Portent Roll to ensure yourself or an ally passes a saving throw that is incredibly important
• Use Low Portent Roll to make a monster miss saving on a powerful charm spell
• Use Low Portent Roll to make a monster miss on its attacks
• Creative Use Enter a casino, and bet all your money on a double or nothing, and use portent to guarantee the outcome of your gambling endeavor
• Creative Use Really need to deceive/persuade/intimidate that NPC that is giving you a tough time? Portent your way to success by either lowering his roll, or boosting yours!

The best part about portent, is that it can always be flavored that your "Luck Mage/Fortune Teller" can actually see the future at times! This really helps to confuse people about just how exactly strong this character is.
 
Bard Levels
Multi-classing into Bard gets us a few nifty things. At Level 1 we intially get the following just for multi-class:
Light Armor - your AC is still garbage, but hey, at least you can wear stuff now - you still shouldn't be on the front lines though, so not a big concern
One Skill of Your Choice - This is strong, another skill really helping you settle into the role of being lucky. I usually end up taking Performance. By the time I get to this, my character's skills already look like:

• Arcana - Wizard
• Investigation -Wizard
• Insight - Human Variant
• Deception - Custom BG
• Sleight of Hand - Custom BG
• Performance - Bard Multi-class

One musical Instrument of Your Choice - Tambourine! No, but seriously, go with whatever you want here --- its mostly flavor.
Level 1
Bard's first level gives you a very strong ability in the form of bardic inspiration. With your CHA modifer at a +3, you get 3 bardic inspiration (1d6) that you can use to inspire others. These can be used on attack rolls, saving throws, or ability checks. And once again, these can be flavored either as your mage simply having its luck rub off on them, or perhaps your foresaw that your ally would succeed at something (play up the mysticism - "I sense...a moment of danger! And in that moment, you will prove to make the right decision!" )
You also gain access to:
Two Cantrips from the bard spell list - use these to fill any gaps you're already missing from Wizard/Cleric, I chose...

• Vicious Mockery - Imposing disadvantage on the next attack is pretty solid, especially when you flavor it up as "I foresee you'll trip on your next attack!"
• Light - Because why not? Mending, Message, Friends, Dancing Lights are all good, do what you want here.

Four 1st-Level Spells - Keep in mind that these spells use CHA for your casting stat, but your INT and CHA use the same modifiers here. The spells I took were...

• Bane - This just fits alongside your 1 time use bless, and again, you're lucky, your luck rubs off on your allies - the -1d4 to enemy attacks/saving throws just continues to fill that flavor
• Silent Image - Bigger Minor Illusion, and can play into the deceptive fortune-tellemedium aspect of your character!
• Hideous Laughter - Putting on so many shows with By Popular Demand has given your character a knack for a bit of comedy in his routine. He is a crowd favorite after all.
• Speak with Animals - Because why not? I like the flavor of this...especially during investigation aspects of campaigns. Who knows what the Horse of your enemy knows about the evil plans?!

Level 2
Jack of All Trades is just icing on the cake, as it adds your proficiency bonus, rounded down, to any ability check that doesn't already include your proficiency bonus. So now, you can be good on things you didn't even account for? It's that luckiness, after all.
Song of Rest is a neat little addon, because it can use soothing music or Oration to help revitalize your wounded allies. Perhaps you are having a future vision, in which you see the party becoming victorious in their quest, your eyes glazed over from Thaumaturgy, voice altered into a loud soothing monotone as your words revitalize your allies!
Level 3
College of Lore adds the final ability to your roster of "Luck Mage" altering effects, with Cutting Words. In addition, you also gain proficiency with three skills of your choice - go nuts!
Cutting Words allows you to now be able to expend one use your reaction, and expend one of your bardic inspirations to subtract the number rolled from any Attack Roll, ability check, or damage roll of a creature that you can see within 60 feet. What's that? You had a vision of that creature stumbling on its next attack? You foresaw the attack and call out to your ally just in time to have them block it? Flavor this however you want, but its perfect for our "Luck Mage/Fortune Teller" motif.
Also at level 3, you get Expertise which allows you to choose two of your current skill proficiences and double the bonus for their checks. Become even more of a skill monkey, and the ultimate party face.
Level 4
Here is where you take your second feat - Lucky or Magic-Initiate - Cleric.
 
Gameplay
There is a lot of information above, so I'll do some bullet points on just how this class is meant to be played..

• 1. Use any of the following: Bardic Inspiration, Portent, Cutting Words, Lucky, Guidance, Bane, or Bless to influence the rolls made during your game and come out on top in combat and social situations.
• 2. Have your familiar use touch spells like Guidance to bring your luckiness to others, have it use help action on your attacks. It's an Owl with Flyby so it can bounce around pretty easily and out of harms way.
• 3. In combat, when you need to dish out damage, don't be afraid to utilize Magic Missile at higher spell slots. It cannot miss, so you only run the risk of it being counterspelled (or an enemy rocking mage armor). This is solid damage for an otherwise, utility based character.
• 4. Stock up on utility spells, and work as a controller during combat. Use your utility during non-combat to help win social situations.
• 5. Really play up the mysticism and use By Popular Demand to grant your friends free room and meals at local taverns. Creative types have a chance to really flourish and embellish the RP here with your "fortune telling".
• 6. Be the party face! Everyone likes you, because you're a skill monkey. Your luck gives you an edge on most things, so don't be afraid to go for broke!

 
This guide is not meant as an end-all-be-all for how to play this type of character. I am certain some of you will note that taking Bard first can grant more skills earlier on, with higher armor class and access to more weapons. This is just how I initially came across the idea of "Luck Mage/Fortune Teller". I hope you enjoy, and go out to make your own "Luck Mage" to bring good fortune to adventuring parties and more!

There's currently a low buy-in poker series being hosted in a Casino (associated with Pokerstars) near where I live so I decided to give it a shot and thus playing my first live tourney. Earlier this evening, I registered to a 18.6€+3.4€ freezeout because sadly it was the only one I could attend due to work. Levels are 20 minutes and we have a 12.000 starting stack. I expected to see a field of 30+ at the very least but we were only 11 (no guaranteed prizepool). With people busting and people late regging, we were never more than 9 at the same time so it was basically a STT. There were 3 places paid, 43€ for third, 63€ for second and 99€ for first.
I played pretty tight the whole way and actually played pretty terrible poker. I didn't value enough with KK on T54 where I x/r'd 3way then check twice on the two bricks. Also, I called a turn PSB shove with TT on Q335 in a 3b pot.
As the blinds became pretty nasty and there wasn't much possible play post-flop, I went on beginner's luck mode: I proceeded to suck-out everytime I was behind and held most times I was ahead. Won Q8dd vs AKhh (I had 8 BB and open shoved). Won T8o vs A9dd (SB open shove) to KO the 5th. Then later K5s vs KTo 3-handed.
The only highlights:
4-handed and on the bubble, everyone is in shove or fold mode as none of us has more than 12BB. I look down and see two red kings UTG. I limp for the obvious trap. Still, BTN shoves with A8o and my kings hold to burst the bubble.
As heads-up starts, we both have about 10BB.

• First hand (OTB): I open shove K2o and he folds.
  
• Second hand: he minraises and I shove with A9o, he folds.
  
• Third and final hand:
  

Pre: I hold and decide to limp, he checks his option.
Flop: a ridiculous , we both check.
Turn: , he checks again and I bet ~1.7BB, he calls.
River: , he checks. I ask for a count then jam. He calls with 7x.
~~~~~
I had a great time, chatted with most of the players and the club host. Obviously when you win, you end up with a happy face but I would have been happy without even cashing as I went there for fun and to have a first experience of live poker.
TL, DR: Won the first live "tourney" I played, mainly due to running better than god.

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example.COMCAST
example.COMMBANK
example.COMMUNITY
example.COMPANY
example.COMPARE
example.COMPUTER
example.COMSEC
example.CONDOS
example.CONSTRUCTION
example.CONSULTING
example.CONTACT
example.CONTRACTORS
example.COOKING
example.COOKINGCHANNEL
example.COOL
example.COOP
example.CORSICA
example.COUNTRY
example.COUPON
example.COUPONS
example.COURSES
example.CR
example.CREDIT
example.CREDITCARD
example.CREDITUNION
example.CRICKET
example.CROWN
example.CRS
example.CRUISES
example.CSC
example.CU
example.CUISINELLA
example.CV
example.CW
example.CX
example.CY
example.CYMRU
example.CYOU
example.CZ
example.DABUR
example.DAD
example.DANCE
example.DATE
example.DATING
example.DATSUN
example.DAY
example.DCLK
example.DDS
example.DE
example.DEAL
example.DEALER
example.DEALS
example.DEGREE
example.DELIVERY
example.DELL
example.DELOITTE
example.DELTA
example.DEMOCRAT
example.DENTAL
example.DENTIST
example.DESI
example.DESIGN
example.DEV
example.DHL
example.DIAMONDS
example.DIET
example.DIGITAL
example.DIRECT
example.DIRECTORY
example.DISCOUNT
example.DISCOVER
example.DISH
example.DIY
example.DJ
example.DK
example.DM
example.DNP
example.DO
example.DOCS
example.DOCTOR
example.DODGE
example.DOG
example.DOHA
example.DOMAINS
example.DOT
example.DOWNLOAD
example.DRIVE
example.DTV
example.DUBAI
example.DUCK
example.DUNLOP
example.DUNS
example.DUPONT
example.DURBAN
example.DVAG
example.DZ
example.EARTH
example.EAT
example.EC
example.ECO
example.EDEKA
example.EDU
example.EDUCATION
example.EE
example.EG
example.EMAIL
example.EMERCK
example.ENERGY
example.ENGINEER
example.ENGINEERING
example.ENTERPRISES
example.EPOST
example.EPSON
example.EQUIPMENT
example.ER
example.ERICSSON
example.ERNI
example.ES
example.ESQ
example.ESTATE
example.ESURANCE
example.ET
example.EU
example.EUROVISION
example.EUS
example.EVENTS
example.EVERBANK
example.EXCHANGE
example.EXPERT
example.EXPOSED
example.EXPRESS
example.EXTRASPACE
example.FAGE
example.FAIL
example.FAIRWINDS
example.FAITH
example.FAMILY
example.FAN
example.FANS
example.FARM
example.FARMERS
example.FASHION
example.FAST
example.FEDEX
example.FEEDBACK
example.FERRARI
example.FERRERO
example.FI
example.FIAT
example.FIDELITY
example.FIDO
example.FILM
example.FINAL
example.FINANCE
example.FINANCIAL
example.FIRE
example.FIRESTONE
example.FIRMDALE
example.FISH
example.FISHING
example.FIT
example.FITNESS
example.FJ
example.FK
example.FLICKR
example.FLIGHTS
example.FLIR
example.FLORIST
example.FLOWERS
example.FLY
example.FM
example.FO
example.FOO
example.FOODNETWORK
example.FOOTBALL
example.FORD
example.FOREX
example.FORSALE
example.FORUM
example.FOUNDATION
example.FOX
example.FR
example.FRESENIUS
example.FRL
example.FROGANS
example.FRONTDOOR
example.FRONTIER
example.FTR
example.FUJITSU
example.FUJIXEROX
example.FUND
example.FURNITURE
example.FUTBOL
example.FYI
example.GA
example.GAL
example.GALLERY
example.GALLO
example.GALLUP
example.GAME
example.GAMES
example.GAP
example.GARDEN
example.GB
example.GBIZ
example.GD
example.GDN
example.GE
example.GEA
example.GENT
example.GENTING
example.GEORGE
example.GF
example.GG
example.GGEE
example.GH
example.GI
example.GIFT
example.GIFTS
example.GIVES
example.GIVING
example.GL
example.GLADE
example.GLASS
example.GLE
example.GLOBAL
example.GLOBO
example.GM
example.GMAIL
example.GMBH
example.GMO
example.GMX
example.GN
example.GODADDY
example.GOLD
example.GOLDPOINT
example.GOLF
example.GOO
example.GOODHANDS
example.GOODYEAR
example.GOOG
example.GOOGLE
example.GOP
example.GOT
example.GOV
example.GP
example.GQ
example.GR
example.GRAINGER
example.GRAPHICS
example.GRATIS
example.GREEN
example.GRIPE
example.GROUP
example.GS
example.GT
example.GU
example.GUARDIAN
example.GUCCI
example.GUGE
example.GUIDE
example.GUITARS
example.GURU
example.GW
example.GY
example.HAMBURG
example.HANGOUT
example.HAUS
example.HBO
example.HDFC
example.HDFCBANK
example.HEALTH
example.HEALTHCARE
example.HELP
example.HELSINKI
example.HERE
example.HERMES
example.HGTV
example.HIPHOP
example.HISAMITSU
example.HITACHI
example.HIV
example.HK
example.HKT
example.HM
example.HN
example.HOCKEY
example.HOLDINGS
example.HOLIDAY
example.HOMEDEPOT
example.HOMEGOODS
example.HOMES
example.HOMESENSE
example.HONDA
example.HONEYWELL
example.HORSE
example.HOST
example.HOSTING
example.HOT
example.HOTELES
example.HOTMAIL
example.HOUSE
example.HOW
example.HR
example.HSBC
example.HT
example.HTC
example.HU
example.HUGHES
example.HYATT
example.HYUNDAI
example.IBM
example.ICBC
example.ICE
example.ICU
example.ID
example.IE
example.IEEE
example.IFM
example.IINET
example.IKANO
example.IL
example.IM
example.IMAMAT
example.IMDB
example.IMMO
example.IMMOBILIEN
example.IN
example.INDUSTRIES
example.INFINITI
example.INFO
example.ING
example.INK
example.INSTITUTE
example.INSURANCE
example.INSURE
example.INT
example.INTEL
example.INTERNATIONAL
example.INTUIT
example.INVESTMENTS
example.IO
example.IPIRANGA
example.IQ
example.IR
example.IRISH
example.IS
example.ISELECT
example.ISMAILI
example.IST
example.ISTANBUL
example.IT
example.ITAU
example.ITV
example.IWC
example.JAGUAR
example.JAVA
example.JCB
example.JCP
example.JE
example.JEEP
example.JETZT
example.JEWELRY
example.JLC
example.JLL
example.JM
example.JMP
example.JNJ
example.JO
example.JOBS
example.JOBURG
example.JOT
example.JOY
example.JP
example.JPMORGAN
example.JPRS
example.JUEGOS
example.JUNIPER
example.KAUFEN
example.KDDI
example.KE
example.KERRYHOTELS
example.KERRYLOGISTICS
example.KERRYPROPERTIES
example.KFH
example.KG
example.KH
example.KI
example.KIA
example.KIM
example.KINDER
example.KINDLE
example.KITCHEN
example.KIWI
example.KM
example.KN
example.KOELN
example.KOMATSU
example.KOSHER
example.KP
example.KPMG
example.KPN
example.KR
example.KRD
example.KRED
example.KUOKGROUP
example.KW
example.KY
example.KYOTO
example.KZ
example.LA
example.LACAIXA
example.LADBROKES
example.LAMBORGHINI
example.LAMER
example.LANCASTER
example.LANCIA
example.LANCOME
example.LAND
example.LANDROVER
example.LANXESS
example.LASALLE
example.LAT
example.LATINO
example.LATROBE
example.LAW
example.LAWYER
example.LB
example.LC
example.LDS
example.LEASE
example.LECLERC
example.LEFRAK
example.LEGAL
example.LEGO
example.LEXUS
example.LGBT
example.LI
example.LIAISON
example.LIDL
example.LIFE
example.LIFEINSURANCE
example.LIFESTYLE
example.LIGHTING
example.LIKE
example.LILLY
example.LIMITED
example.LIMO
example.LINCOLN
example.LINDE
example.LINK
example.LIPSY
example.LIVE
example.LIVING
example.LIXIL
example.LK
example.LOAN
example.LOANS
example.LOCKER
example.LOCUS
example.LOFT
example.LOL
example.LONDON
example.LOTTE
example.LOTTO
example.LOVE
example.LPL
example.LPLFINANCIAL
example.LR
example.LS
example.LT
example.LTD
example.LTDA
example.LU
example.LUNDBECK
example.LUPIN
example.LUXE
example.LUXURY
example.LV
example.LY
example.MA
example.MACYS
example.MADRID
example.MAIF
example.MAISON
example.MAKEUP
example.MAN
example.MANAGEMENT
example.MANGO
example.MARKET
example.MARKETING
example.MARKETS
example.MARRIOTT
example.MARSHALLS
example.MASERATI
example.MATTEL
example.MBA
example.MC
example.MCD
example.MCDONALDS
example.MCKINSEY
example.MD
example.ME
example.MED
example.MEDIA
example.MEET
example.MELBOURNE
example.MEME
example.MEMORIAL
example.MEN
example.MENU
example.MEO
example.METLIFE
example.MG
example.MH
example.MIAMI
example.MICROSOFT
example.MIL
example.MINI
example.MINT
example.MIT
example.MITSUBISHI
example.MK
example.ML
example.MLB
example.MLS
example.MM
example.MMA
example.MN
example.MO
example.MOBI
example.MOBILY
example.MODA
example.MOE
example.MOI
example.MOM
example.MONASH
example.MONEY
example.MONSTER
example.MONTBLANC
example.MOPAR
example.MORMON
example.MORTGAGE
example.MOSCOW
example.MOTORCYCLES
example.MOV
example.MOVIE
example.MOVISTAR
example.MP
example.MQ
example.MR
example.MS
example.MSD
example.MT
example.MTN
example.MTPC
example.MTR
example.MU
example.MUSEUM
example.MUTUAL
example.MUTUELLE
example.MV
example.MW
example.MX
example.MY
example.MZ
example.NA
example.NAB
example.NADEX
example.NAGOYA
example.NAME
example.NATIONWIDE
example.NATURA
example.NAVY
example.NBA
example.NC
example.NE
example.NEC
example.NET
example.NETBANK
example.NETFLIX
example.NETWORK
example.NEUSTAR
example.NEW
example.NEWS
example.NEXT
example.NEXTDIRECT
example.NEXUS
example.NF
example.NFL
example.NG
example.NGO
example.NHK
example.NI
example.NICO
example.NIKE
example.NIKON
example.NINJA
example.NISSAN
example.NISSAY
example.NL
example.NO
example.NOKIA
example.NORTHWESTERNMUTUAL
example.NORTON
example.NOW
example.NOWRUZ
example.NOWTV
example.NP
example.NR
example.NRA
example.NRW
example.NTT
example.NU
example.NYC
example.NZ
example.OBI
example.OFF
example.OFFICE
example.OKINAWA
example.OLAYAN
example.OLAYANGROUP
example.OLDNAVY
example.OLLO
example.OM
example.OMEGA
example.ONE
example.ONG
example.ONL
example.ONLINE
example.ONYOURSIDE
example.OOO
example.OPEN
example.ORACLE
example.ORANGE
example.ORG
example.ORGANIC
example.ORIENTEXPRESS
example.ORIGINS
example.OSAKA
example.OTSUKA
example.OTT
example.OVH
example.PA
example.PAGE
example.PAMPEREDCHEF
example.PANASONIC
example.PANERAI
example.PARIS
example.PARS
example.PARTNERS
example.PARTS
example.PARTY
example.PASSAGENS
example.PAY
example.PCCW
example.PE
example.PET
example.PF
example.PFIZER
example.PG
example.PH
example.PHARMACY
example.PHILIPS
example.PHOTO
example.PHOTOGRAPHY
example.PHOTOS
example.PHYSIO
example.PIAGET
example.PICS
example.PICTET
example.PICTURES
example.PID
example.PIN
example.PING
example.PINK
example.PIONEER
example.PIZZA
example.PK
example.PL
example.PLACE
example.PLAY
example.PLAYSTATION
example.PLUMBING
example.PLUS
example.PM
example.PN
example.PNC
example.POHL
example.POKER
example.POLITIE
example.PORN
example.POST
example.PR
example.PRAMERICA
example.PRAXI
example.PRESS
example.PRIME
example.PRO
example.PROD
example.PRODUCTIONS
example.PROF
example.PROGRESSIVE
example.PROMO
example.PROPERTIES
example.PROPERTY
example.PROTECTION
example.PRU
example.PRUDENTIAL
example.PS
example.PT
example.PUB
example.PW
example.PWC
example.PY
example.QA
example.QPON
example.QUEBEC
example.QUEST
example.QVC
example.RACING
example.RAID
example.RE
example.READ
example.REALESTATE
example.REALTOR
example.REALTY
example.RECIPES
example.RED
example.REDSTONE
example.REDUMBRELLA
example.REHAB
example.REISE
example.REISEN
example.REIT
example.REN
example.RENT
example.RENTALS
example.REPAIR
example.REPORT
example.REPUBLICAN
example.REST
example.RESTAURANT
example.REVIEW
example.REVIEWS
example.REXROTH
example.RICH
example.RICHARDLI
example.RICOH
example.RIGHTATHOME
example.RIO
example.RIP
example.RO
example.ROCHER
example.ROCKS
example.RODEO
example.ROGERS
example.ROOM
example.RS
example.RSVP
example.RU
example.RUHR
example.RUN
example.RW
example.RWE
example.RYUKYU
example.SA
example.SAARLAND
example.SAFE
example.SAFETY
example.SAKURA
example.SALE
example.SALON
example.SAMSCLUB
example.SAMSUNG
example.SANDVIK
example.SANDVIKCOROMANT
example.SANOFI
example.SAP
example.SAPO
example.SARL
example.SAS
example.SAVE
example.SAXO
example.SB
example.SBI
example.SBS
example.SC
example.SCA
example.SCB
example.SCHAEFFLER
example.SCHMIDT
example.SCHOLARSHIPS
example.SCHOOL
example.SCHULE
example.SCHWARZ
example.SCIENCE
example.SCJOHNSON
example.SCOR
example.SCOT
example.SD
example.SE
example.SEAT
example.SECURE
example.SECURITY
example.SEEK
example.SELECT
example.SENER
example.SERVICES
example.SES
example.SEVEN
example.SEW
example.SEX
example.SEXY
example.SFR
example.SG
example.SH
example.SHANGRILA
example.SHARP
example.SHAW
example.SHELL
example.SHIA
example.SHIKSHA
example.SHOES
example.SHOP
example.SHOPPING
example.SHOUJI
example.SHOW
example.SHOWTIME
example.SHRIRAM
example.SI
example.SILK
example.SINA
example.SINGLES
example.SITE
example.SJ
example.SK
example.SKI
example.SKIN
example.SKY
example.SKYPE
example.SL
example.SLING
example.SM
example.SMART
example.SMILE
example.SN
example.SNCF
example.SO
example.SOCCER
example.SOCIAL
example.SOFTBANK
example.SOFTWARE
example.SOHU
example.SOLAR
example.SOLUTIONS
example.SONG
example.SONY
example.SOY
example.SPACE
example.SPIEGEL
example.SPOT
example.SPREADBETTING
example.SR
example.SRL
example.SRT
example.ST
example.STADA
example.STAPLES
example.STAR
example.STARHUB
example.STATEBANK
example.STATEFARM
example.STATOIL
example.STC
example.STCGROUP
example.STOCKHOLM
example.STORAGE
example.STORE
example.STREAM
example.STUDIO
example.STUDY
example.STYLE
example.SU
example.SUCKS
example.SUPPLIES
example.SUPPLY
example.SUPPORT
example.SURF
example.SURGERY
example.SUZUKI
example.SV
example.SWATCH
example.SWIFTCOVER
example.SWISS
example.SX
example.SY
example.SYDNEY
example.SYMANTEC
example.SYSTEMS
example.SZ
example.TAB
example.TAIPEI
example.TALK
example.TAOBAO
example.TARGET
example.TATAMOTORS
example.TATAR
example.TATTOO
example.TAX
example.TAXI
example.TC
example.TCI
example.TD
example.TDK
example.TEAM
example.TECH
example.TECHNOLOGY
example.TEL
example.TELECITY
example.TELEFONICA
example.TEMASEK
example.TENNIS
example.TEVA
example.TF
example.TG
example.TH
example.THD
example.THEATER
example.THEATRE
example.TIAA
example.TICKETS
example.TIENDA
example.TIFFANY
example.TIPS
example.TIRES
example.TIROL
example.TJ
example.TJMAXX
example.TJX
example.TK
example.TKMAXX
example.TL
example.TM
example.TMALL
example.TN
example.TO
example.TODAY
example.TOKYO
example.TOOLS
example.TOP
example.TORAY
example.TOSHIBA
example.TOTAL
example.TOURS
example.TOWN
example.TOYOTA
example.TOYS
example.TR
example.TRADE
example.TRADING
example.TRAINING
example.TRAVEL
example.TRAVELCHANNEL
example.TRAVELERS
example.TRAVELERSINSURANCE
example.TRUST
example.TRV
example.TT
example.TUBE
example.TUI
example.TUNES
example.TUSHU
example.TV
example.TVS
example.TW
example.TZ
example.UA
example.UBANK
example.UBS
example.UCONNECT
example.UG
example.UK
example.UNICOM
example.UNIVERSITY
example.UNO
example.UOL
example.UPS
example.US
example.UY
example.UZ
example.VA
example.VACATIONS
example.VANA
example.VANGUARD
example.VC
example.VE
example.VEGAS
example.VENTURES
example.VERISIGN
example.VERSICHERUNG
example.VET
example.VG
example.VI
example.VIAJES
example.VIDEO
example.VIG
example.VIKING
example.VILLAS
example.VIN
example.VIP
example.VIRGIN
example.VISA
example.VISION
example.VISTA
example.VISTAPRINT
example.VIVA
example.VIVO
example.VLAANDEREN
example.VN
example.VODKA
example.VOLKSWAGEN
example.VOTE
example.VOTING
example.VOTO
example.VOYAGE
example.VU
example.VUELOS
example.WALES
example.WALMART
example.WALTER
example.WANG
example.WANGGOU
example.WARMAN
example.WATCH
example.WATCHES
example.WEATHER
example.WEATHERCHANNEL
example.WEBCAM
example.WEBER
example.WEBSITE
example.WED
example.WEDDING
example.WEIBO
example.WEIR
example.WF
example.WHOSWHO
example.WIEN
example.WIKI
example.WILLIAMHILL
example.WIN
example.WINDOWS
example.WINE
example.WINNERS
example.WME
example.WOLTERSKLUWER
example.WOODSIDE
example.WORK
example.WORKS
example.WORLD
example.WOW
example.WS
example.WTC
example.WTF
example.XBOX
example.XEROX
example.XFINITY
example.XIHUAN
example.XIN
example.XN--11B4C3D
example.XN--1CK2E1B
example.XN--1QQW23A
example.XN--30RR7Y
example.XN--3BST00M
example.XN--3DS443G
example.XN--3E0B707E
example.XN--3OQ18VL8PN36A
example.XN--3PXU8K
example.XN--42C2D9A
example.XN--45BRJ9C
example.XN--45Q11C
example.XN--4GBRIM
example.XN--55QW42G
example.XN--55QX5D
example.XN--5SU34J936BGSG
example.XN--5TZM5G
example.XN--6FRZ82G
example.XN--6QQ986B3XL
example.XN--80ADXHKS
example.XN--80AO21A
example.XN--80ASEHDB
example.XN--80ASWG
example.XN--8Y0A063A
example.XN--90A3AC
example.XN--90AE
example.XN--90AIS
example.XN--9DBQ2A
example.XN--9ET52U
example.XN--9KRT00A
example.XN--B4W605FERD
example.XN--BCK1B9A5DRE4C
example.XN--C1AVG
example.XN--C2BR7G
example.XN--CCK2B3B
example.XN--CG4BKI
example.XN--CLCHC0EA0B2G2A9GCD
example.XN--CZR694B
example.XN--CZRS0T
example.XN--CZRU2D
example.XN--D1ACJ3B
example.XN--D1ALF
example.XN--E1A4C
example.XN--ECKVDTC9D
example.XN--EFVY88H
example.XN--ESTV75G
example.XN--FCT429K
example.XN--FHBEI
example.XN--FIQ228C5HS
example.XN--FIQ64B
example.XN--FIQS8S
example.XN--FIQZ9S
example.XN--FJQ720A
example.XN--FLW351E
example.XN--FPCRJ9C3D
example.XN--FZC2C9E2C
example.XN--FZYS8D69UVGM
example.XN--G2XX48C
example.XN--GCKR3F0F
example.XN--GECRJ9C
example.XN--H2BRJ9C
example.XN--HXT814E
example.XN--I1B6B1A6A2E
example.XN--IMR513N
example.XN--IO0A7I
example.XN--J1AEF
example.XN--J1AMH
example.XN--J6W193G
example.XN--JLQ61U9W7B
example.XN--JVR189M
example.XN--KCRX77D1X4A
example.XN--KPRW13D
example.XN--KPRY57D
example.XN--KPU716F
example.XN--KPUT3I
example.XN--L1ACC
example.XN--LGBBAT1AD8J
example.XN--MGB9AWBF
example.XN--MGBA3A3EJT
example.XN--MGBA3A4F16A
example.XN--MGBA7C0BBN0A
example.XN--MGBAAM7A8H
example.XN--MGBAB2BD
example.XN--MGBAYH7GPA
example.XN--MGBB9FBPOB
example.XN--MGBBH1A71E
example.XN--MGBC0A9AZCG
example.XN--MGBCA7DZDO
example.XN--MGBERP4A5D4AR
example.XN--MGBPL2FH
example.XN--MGBT3DHD
example.XN--MGBTX2B
example.XN--MGBX4CD0AB
example.XN--MIX891F
example.XN--MK1BU44C
example.XN--MXTQ1M
example.XN--NGBC5AZD
example.XN--NGBE9E0A
example.XN--NODE
example.XN--NQV7F
example.XN--NQV7FS00EMA
example.XN--NYQY26A
example.XN--O3CW4H
example.XN--OGBPF8FL
example.XN--P1ACF
example.XN--P1AI
example.XN--PBT977C
example.XN--PGBS0DH
example.XN--PSSY2U
example.XN--Q9JYB4C
example.XN--QCKA1PMC
example.XN--QXAM
example.XN--RHQV96G
example.XN--ROVU88B
example.XN--S9BRJ9C
example.XN--SES554G
example.XN--T60B56A
example.XN--TCKWE
example.XN--UNUP4Y
example.XN--VERMGENSBERATER-CTB
example.XN--VERMGENSBERATUNG-PWB
example.XN--VHQUV
example.XN--VUQ861B
example.XN--W4R85EL8FHU5DNRA
example.XN--W4RS40L
example.XN--WGBH1C
example.XN--WGBL6A
example.XN--XHQ521B
example.XN--XKC2AL3HYE2A
example.XN--XKC2DL3A5EE0H
example.XN--Y9A3AQ
example.XN--YFRO4I67O
example.XN--YGBI2AMMX
example.XN--ZFR164B
example.XPERIA
example.XXX
example.XYZ
example.YACHTS
example.YAHOO
example.YAMAXUN
example.YANDEX
example.YE
example.YODOBASHI
example.YOGA
example.YOKOHAMA
example.YOU
example.YOUTUBE
example.YT
example.YUN
example.ZA
example.ZAPPOS
example.ZARA
example.ZERO
example.ZIP
example.ZIPPO
example.ZM
example.ZONE
example.ZUERICH
example.ZW