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[Analysis] A PvP Analysis on Level 40+ Pokémon in Master League
And now for something completely different! I try very hard to make my analysis articles entertaining as well as informative. But I'll be straightforward up front: this is not going to be my typical style of analysis. I began this before Christmas in preparation for the return of Master League to GO Battle League, and what you're going to see below is largely a listing of my findings as I sought to answer a question I know many have right now: what will be the impact of Level 40+ Pokémon in a league with uncapped CP? Is it worth trying to get into, and if so, what kind of investment are we talking about here? WHAT should we invest in to get the most bang for our buck, the best return on investment? Do we have to take things all the way up to 50, or can we dip a couple toes in those waters, invest SOME but not ALL, and still compete? So, I started at the top, with the big Legendaries pegged out at Level 50, but that was only a small part of the story. I then moved into something that is probably much more helpful: an analysis on Legendaries/Mythicals and then non-Legendaries at Level 45 and below, a much more reasonable investment, to start to answer those loaded questions. End of the day, I can guarantee this will not fully answer those (or your) questions, but this SHOULD be a way to get you on the right track and give you at least a working knowledge going into these unknown and somewhat scary waters. That's the goal, anyway! So again, apologies on my somewhat rambling style of getting there (finally catching COVID last week and currently trying to fight it off hasn't helped 😷), but let's see how this goes! Initially, just a list of Level 50 Legendaries, but I promise things get a little more user-friendly as I started to hit a little bit of a stride.... MEWTWO Level 50 Psystrike/Shadow Ball Mewtwo loses to Lugia, Ho-Oh, Kyogre, Origin Giratina (it beats Altered!), Dragonite, and sometimes Garchomp (requires successful baiting). Palkia ties. Level 50 Psystrike/Ice Beam Mewtwo loses to Metagross, Lugia, Ho-Oh, Kyogre, and Origin Giratina. Palkia again ties. Level 50 Psystrike/Focus Blast Mewtwo loses to Lugia, Ho-Oh, Metagross, Origin Giratina, Kyogre, and Dragonite. Kyogre can lose and Palkia is now a slight win for Mewtwo. THE GIRATINAS Level 50 Altered Giratina looks best with SC/DC/AP, with close losses only to Dialga, Snorlax, and Groudon. Note the lack of Togekiss! Giratina now wins that, as well as picking up wins against Lugia, Dragonite, Garchomp, Mamoswine, and Origin Giratina. Level 50 Origin Giratina is perhaps even scarier, losing only to Dragonite, Snorlax, and sometimes Garchomp. Once again, Togekiss is now in the win column, as well as Dialga, Palkia, Zekrom, Rhyperior, and Mamoswine. DIALGA Level 50 Dialga is surprisingly not as dominant as you may expect. Still loses to Fighers (Machamp, Conkeldurr), Ground (MS Rhyperior, Groudon, Swampert), plus Mamoswine, Ho-Oh, Melmetal, and Metagross. Heatran is a 1 HP win, so often that will flip too. Other than that, really the only losses at Level 40 that flip to wins at Level 50 are Mewtwo, Garchomp, and Snorlax. GROUDON Level 50 Groudon loses to Dragonite, Ho-Oh, Lugia, and of course Kyogre. New wins are Palkia, Garchomp, and a former tie with Origin Giratina. THE BIRDS Level 50 Lugia has only Steels (Dialga, Melmetal, Metagross, and Heatran) to worry about... it now wipes out the rest of the ML core meta, picking up wins against Palkia, Zekrom, and Origin Giratina. Level 50 Ho-Oh still loses to Kyogre, Origin Giratina, Zekrom, and sometimes Garchomp, and has to be careful how it plays against Level 40 Ho-Oh or it can actually lose that too by debuffing itself. HEATRAN...? Level 50 Heatran is still surprisingly tepid, still losing to Kyogre, Palkia, and Swampert, Groudon and Rhyperior, Machamp, Snorlax, both Giratinas, Garchomp, Zekrom, and even Steels Dialga and Melmetal (and likely a partridge in a pear tree, if that were meta). The only new win going from Level 40 to 50? The mirror match. This one is a total dud. THE WATERS Level 50 Kyogre loses out to Dialga, Origin Giratina, Zekrom, Palkia, Dragonite, and Thunder Kyogre. If the Level 50 Kyogre has Thunder, it now loses to Altered Giratina but obviously picks up the mirror match versus any smaller Kyogre. However, that potential win over A-Gira and a win over Lugia are its only pickups going from 40 up to 50. Level 50 Palkia looks potentially terrifying, with ONLY Togekiss listed among Level 40s that beat Palkia. Dialga can tie, but that's it. In truth, though, perhaps that shouldn't be quite so shocking, as even Level 40 Palkia is arguably a bit underrated. New wins for Level 50 include Dialga, Melmetal, Altered Giratina, Dragonite, and Zekrom. ZEKROM Speaking of which, Level 50 Zekrom retains losses against Togekiss, Dialga, Swampert, Mamoswine, Mewtwo (with Ice Beam), and sometimes Garchomp. The new wins include Rhyperior, Altered Giratina, and Dragonite, the last of which can JUST barely beat Level 40 Zekrom. Now as I said, a lot of this is academic at this point, as these are not currently catchable and therefore there's no way to get XL candy beyond the handful of Rare XLs from leveling yourself above 40, or the occasional toss-in you may get--if you're lucky!--from transferred or maybe trading. (Has that been re-enabled yet? I see conflicting reports.) But there IS one Legendary/Mythical that IS catchable right now, and in decently large quantities... MELMETAL. MELMETAL You can catch dozens of Meltan every week if you want to, so this is one where you could legit start stockpiling XL candy. (And even better, we're entering the winter months in much of the world with potential for snowy weather, so that means boosted Meltan and even higher probability of XL candy during those periods.) What do you get for your troubles? Well, Level 50 Melmetal tacks on some improbable wins, like Mud Slap Rhyperior and Ho-Oh, as well as any version of Kyogre and of course the mirror match. It does still lose to the Fighters, the Giratinas, Swampert, Groudon, Garchomp, Zekrom, and Metagross, so there are certainly still several limitations here. But yes, leveling up Melmetal does make enough sense to be worth it, if you're willing to make the commitment and grind for it. But again, still mostly academic. Even for Melmetal, with the current system, it will take a good long while to amass the 270+ XL candy to push all the way up to the new max at Level 50. You MIGHT be able to push up into the low 40s in time for it to matter for GBL, so what sort of gains do you get from that? Let's start this time with Mel, the most easily achievable, and then work our way backwards. MELMETAL (Part II: Electric Boogaloo) You already pick up the mirror as soon as you go to Level 40.5, not surprisingly. But you only need hit Level 41.5 to start beating Kyogre (with any combination of moves). That is "only" 30 XL candy and 30,000 dust (or less if you best buddied your Melmetal and it's already a bit above 40), which may actually be achievable with some good Meltan catches, especially if you already got started on that. You have to go all the way up to Level 45.5 to pick up the next new win (Ho-Oh), so that's out of reach for now. But getting Melmetal mirrors and Kyogre seem potentially worth it for an early XL candy investment. A quick run through the others, just in bullet form. I'll spare you (and the Reddit servers!) the links and just hit these in quick succession:
KYOGRE has to go up to Level 44 to gain a win (Altered Giratina).
PALKIA can beat Dragonite starting at Level 41, which some of you may have already Best Buddied your way into. The next pickup I see is Melmetal, but not until Level 43.5.
ZEKROM has to go all the way up to Level 45 before it flips a (non-mirror) matchup, finally beating Level 40 Dragonite.
ALTERED GIRATINA can beat Level 40 Origin Giratina starting at Level 41.5, just a hair beyond the old BB max-out. Again, 30,000 dust and 30 XL candy... hard to get soon, but you can see the light at the end of that tunnel, at least. The next two are out there but significant, with Mamoswine at Level 43.5 and then Togekiss at Level 44. Noticing a pattern already where many are hitting a nice sweet spot somewhere between Levels 43 and 45....
ORIGIN GIRATINA actually tracks pretty similarly. At Level 41.5, it picks up Groudon, and then again hits that sweet spot right at Level 44 with wins over Dialga (moveset irrelvant) and Zekrom.
MEWTWO keeps that trend alive. With Ice Beam, it gains Rhyperior at Level 42.5, and then Swampert and (somehow) Heatran at--you guessed it!--Level 44. (A quick aside: that Heatran win is actually just accomplished with triple Psystrike, so assume that win is always there once Mewtwo hits 44.) Similar gains with Shadow Ball, getting Rhyperior at 42.5 and Swampert at Level 44 (and Heatran again). With Focus Blast it has to go a bit further, not seeing a new win (other than the Level 44 Heatran) until Level 44.5 (Groudon) and then Garchomp half a level later at Level 45.
DIALGA has some early gains but then a decent gap, with the first new wins showing at Level 43 (Snorlax) and 43.5 (Ice Beam Mewtwo), but then no more until Level 45.5 (and that's only Heatran).
LUGIA can best Level 40 Origin Giratina at Level 43, but that's it until you get way high into the 40s.
HO-OH sees some very early results. At Level 40.5, it can already overcome Dragonite and Thunder Dialga, and then it also potentially picks up Garchomp starting at Level 41.5, and the next pickup is Lugia at Level 44.5. And as before, Ho-Oh has to be careful how it plays the mirror versus lower level Ho-Oh, as throwing the first Brave Bird probably spells disaster, and that is reflected by winning the mirror at Level 40, and then losing it at Level 40.5 before picking it up again starting at Level 41, though with the opponent not throwing Brave Bird at all! Sims really struggle with this one.
GROUDON also has some very interesting sim results that will require some time to explain. It starts off easy, with good news coming quickly after 40, as Origin Giratina (and Groudon itself, of course) flip to wins as early as Level 40.5. But then something weird happens. Starting at Level 41.5, Groudon somehow LOSES a win that it had at lower levels, and there are no self-debuffing tricks at play in this case. So how can that be? To sum it up as simply as possible, the opponent in question is Togekiss, and what's happening is a weird simulation glitch. As Groudon reaches 41.5, Togekiss switches from using Ancient Power and Groudon sneaking in a fourth and final Fire Punch, to now using a different charge move once Groudon hits Level 41.5 (I honestly have no idea why, sorry!) and that throws off the timing JUST enough that Groudon now falls short of that fourth Fire Punch and dies. In reality, the way for Togekiss to play that is to just straight Charm Groudon down, which means a victory for Kiss all the way up until Groudon hits a bulk point at Level 44.5 (dropping Charm to 12 damage instead of 13) and is able to live long enough to reach that extra knockout Fire Punch again. Whew! That one took some digging.
TL;DR #1:
So to sum all that up, here are some conclusions I can draw, basically a TL;DR to much of the above:
Most Legendaries have a key pickup or two somewhere in the Level 43-45 range, and then plateau there a bit until finding more success in the upper 40s as they approach 50. I didn't list all those results here specifically, but getting beyond Level 45 is tough anyway with the prohibitive costs, so I tried to highlight 45 and down, which is at least somewhat more reasonable.
The Legendaries with the most immediate gains are Ho-Oh and Groudon, which gain new wins (two for Ho-Oh and one for Groudon) at Level 40.5. Ho-Oh also picks up Garchomp at Level 41.5, and so with potentially three new wins for "only" 30,000 dust and 30 XL candy, Ho-Oh looks like the big winner overall.
Other "bargains" that net multiple wins below Level 45 are the Giratinas, with both versions netting three new wins by the time they hit Level 44, and then Palkia and Mewtwo, with two wins by the time they hit 43.5, and Dialga who gets two wins by the time it reaches Level 44.
NOW, before your brains start leaking out of your ears (well, any more than they already are), let's blow through some NON-Legendary Master League contenders and see where they shake out. As this has already run a bit long, I will try to highlight on those who stand to gain the most at Level 45 or lower.
SWAMPERT sees a massive jump when going from Level 40 up to Level 50, but there's a catch: only two of those wins come below Level 45, A-Giratina at Level 42 and Groudon at Level 44.5. Those last four wins don't start showing up until Level 48.5 and higher. Ouch. In Premier, it does sneak past Haxorus at Level 41, but then its only other notable picklup is not until Level 44 (Glaceon). Swampert is not one to level up just a bit beyond 40 to see big results... you need to take it nearly all the way up.
DRAGONITE is a poor candidate for XLing in open Master League. Other than the mirror match, it doesn't see any new wins until Level 47 (Dialga) and then the only other new win (over Mewtwo) comes at Level 49. It IS more promising in Premier Cup though, with new wins over Glaceon at Level 42.5, Scizor at Level 43, and Shadow Magnezone at Level 44.
On the plus side, we have MACHAMP. It sees gains as early as Level 40.5 (Magnezone, even if baited, though it can win even at 40, albeit barely, if it just goes straight Counter), and then at 41.5 (now having enough bulk to beat Level 40 Haxorus), and TWO gains at Level 43 (Dragon Breath Gyarados and Mamoswine). The original Fighting *champ looks to be a very good investment for super sizing with XL candy!
CONKELDURR sees some nice returns right away, beating the mirror and Haxorus as well at Level 40.5, but it doesn't see another gain until Level 44.5 (Typhlosion).
SNORLAX looks potentially very promising as an XL candy investment. With Earthquake (generally the preferred second charge move for open ML, primarily due to its ability to roll over Dialga), Lax can start to beat Level 40 Ho-Oh at Level 41.5, Lugia at Level 43, and then Rhyperior, Melmetal, AND Togekiss at Level 44.5. With Superpower instead of Earthquake, generally preferred in Premier Cup, it beats Rhyperior earlier (Level 42), and it's also worth noting that Lax beats Gyarados with either Dragon Breath or Waterfall at Level 41 (with just Body Slam). If you're going to invest in a good Snorlax, it's probably safe to stop at Level 44.5 for a while, since the only gains it has after that are Garchomp (two full levels later, at 46.5, and only if it doesn't get baited) and Zekrom all the way up at Level 49.5.
Incredibly, Togekiss doesn't see any new wins until Level 49, when it finally beats Dialga, and then it also gets Mewtwo at Level 49.5. But yeah... not a great max out (again) candidate, it would seem.
Similarly, SHADOW GARDEVOIR sees only one (non-mirror) win before Level 45, taking out Swampert at Level 41.5. Seems that Charmers in general don't benefit all that much from leveling beyond 40
RHYPERIOR (running with Mud Slap/Surf/Rock Wrecker) sees gains at Level 41.5 (Conkeldurr), Level 43 (Lugia, Haxorus, and Shadow Snorlax), and Level 44.5 (Altered Giratina!), but has a ways to go to achieve more beyond that. Smack Down Rhyperior has less to gain, with only Zekrom at Level 44 (and nothing of note in Premier Cup).
MAMOSWINE has to go a ways to find success, but then finds a bunch in that 43-45 sweet spot, with Snorlax and Heatran at Level 42.5, Mewtwo at Level 43.5, Conkeldurr at Level 44, and finally Lugia at Level 44.5. In Premier Cup, it also picks up Charizard and Shadow Gardevoir along the way. Mamoswine starts out looking very lackluster at Level 40, but by the time it gets near Level 45, Mamo looks quite respectable... against Level 40 competition, at least.
CHARIZARD is a little lackluster in ML at Level 40, but by the time it gets to Level 45 it looks quite a bit better. Level 41.5 is a BIG one for Zard, as it picks up Dialga, Snorlax, AND Typhlosion, and then Glaceon at Level 45.
And there are others, of course... but I need to wrap it up here. First off, I am actively fighting off COVID-19 (finally hit our household days before Christmas... Happy Holidays indeed!), and secondly, Master League is almost upon us (less than 24 hours away now!) and I want to get this out with a little time to prep. Additionally, I think I've probably fried your brains by now--this was much more dry than most of my writeups, for which I apologize--and also, others I could look at like Garchomp and Magnezone are very bait-heavy and it is therefore hard to properly show them in sims, and what is shown doesn't show drastic improvement anyway. (Take Zone, for example, which looks the same at Level 45 as it does at Level 40 anyway.) Besides, hopefully by now I accomplished my primary goal anyway: showing that if you choose to invest in XL Pokémon, you don't HAVE to go full bore to 50 to see big improvements... and there are a few (like the Charmers) that you may want to just leave alone at Level 40 (or 41 for Best Friends) anyway. Level 45 seems a reasonable enough cutoff point, and there are many that you can go far below even that and see some good pickups. I will atempt to do a quick TL;DR to summarize all the non-Legendaries above:
TL;DR #2:
As with the Legendaries, a lot of the non-Legendaries find great success in the Level 43-45 range. However, many of them also find success earlier. The best ones are MACHAMP and RHYPERIOR (MS/S/RW), which both pick up four significant new wins by the time they hit Level 43, which may actually be achievable at 64,000 stardust and "only" 64 XL candy. If you already have them best buddied up to Level 41, then you save yourself 20,000 and 20 XL candy. Charizard is close, picking up three wins at Level 41.5.
MAMOSWINE only nets two wins below 43, but then gets three more by the time it gets to Level 45. Similarly, Earthquake SNORLAX only achieves two new wins at Level 43 or below, but then picks up three more at Level 44.5. Dragonite gets three new wins before Level 45, but only against things typically seen in Premier Cup rather than open ML (Shadow Zone, Glaceon, Scizor).
Some of those who need to be leveled above 43 to see real gains include the Charmers (TOGEKISS has to go all the way up to Level 49, and SHADOW GARDEVOIR gets only Swampert early on and then nothing for a long time), SWAMPERT (only two wins below 45 and then none again until after Level 48), and CONKELDURR (only one win below Level 43, another right before it hits 45, and then nothing for a little while beyond that).
WHEW. Okay, yeah, I know this one was a bit of a chore to get through... believe me, it took many days of plowing through literally hundreds of sims to write it too! 😫 But if you did, I sincerely hope this is of benefit to you moving forward into the brave new world of Master League XL. This season, we get a choice not to dabble in Master at all yet, as we can instead stick with Holiday Cup (which, as a reminder, I did an in depth--and much less dry--analysis on as well!). But if you intend to forge into the wilds of ML now--or we're forced to in the future--now you have at least a little more knowledge on what to expect (or not!) from Pokémon leveled beyond 40. Good luck! I do have an analysis (which is much more my usual style) in the works on Genesect with its various Techno Blasts, and you can expect that this week. Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of COVID stays this knowledge courier from completion of my appointed rounds! Until then, you can always find me on Twitter with near-daily PvP analysis nuggets (or Patreon if you're into that). And as always, please feel free to comment here with your own thoughts or questions and I'll try to get back to you. I am hoping this will spawn some good discussion on things I missed... as long as this analysis was, I feel in some ways like I just scratched the surface of all the implications. 😬 Stay safe out there, Pokéfriends. Thanks again for reading, and catch you next time! Much more fun than catching coronavirus! 😷 EDIT: As a quick aside, yes, this simulates against a field of Level 40 Pokémon, not Level 40+. I had to start somewhere, and simulations with mass Level 41+ Pokémon don't really exist yet, so I had to go in reverse and show Level 40+ 'mons versus the current competition. I would like to go back and do Level 40+ vs Level 40+ grids down the line, but for now this was the best I could really do. In truth, at least early on here, I would expect many things will NOT be far above 40, if leveled with XL candy at all yet. Future weeks with Master League will probably see much more widespread XL 'mons, but for now this may actually be close to what you'll actually face: a majority of Level 40 opponents with the occasional 41+ here and there. But we'll find out in about 22 hours!
Hey guys, so today is the final installment of the Top 100. I've combined the final 20 into one so that way it doesn't go past Christmas. Anyway let's get straight to it. Here is how each player ranks per position so far, and here is the list of players left per team: 1 BRI, 2 CBR, 1 MAN, 3 MEL, 1 NTH, 1 NEW, 1 NZL, 1 PAR, 4 PEN, 1 SOU, 1 STG, 2 SYD, 1 WST Let's get straight into it! #20 Daly Cherry-Evans – (Manly Warringah Sea Eagles) (Previously #6) Ah, Cherry Bomb. When your support players fell around you, you had those days where you just tried to do too much. But that being said, DCE had a quietly remarkable 2020. Lodging over 20 try assists and the most tackle breaks for a half (on over 50% of his runs!), DCE's decision-making seemed to have improved when he opted to run or try and look for scoring options...albeit it didn't always pay off. However, the starting half for the worst Queensland team ever thoroughly deserved his spot. He had to be a volume kicker given he had a revolving door of halves partners with Lachlan Croker, Cade Cust, Dylan Walker and a brief stint of Josh Schuster, and through that would register a staggering 8000 kicking metres, a number only surpassed by Nathan Cleary, who took 55 more kicks in play. DCE has had his issues documented - he is not a solo carry of a team, and targeting his passing can be an avenue to win. However, don't discount his ability to read defenses and pick the right option a vast majority of the time, as he was involved in over 1/3rd of Manly's points this season, with his 28 tries + try assists, 12 successful conversions and his eventual game-winning field goal against Sydney. Keep an eye out on him to continue this run of form with a restocked cast of backs in 2021, and perhaps bring them back to finals contention, if not glory. #19 Harry Grant – (Wests Tigers) (Previously n/a) The Rookie of the Year played some phenomenal footy this year. Loaned to the Tigers by Melbourne, he went on to start 15 games at #9 for the Tigers. Started the season with a bang, scoring the first try of his first match in Round 3 against the Sharks. He will be back at the Storm next year to replace Cameron Smith. Running the Tigers team around like a veteran this year, maybe the Storm won’t struggle as much without Cam as first thought. #18 Cameron McInnes – (St George Illawarra Dragons) (Previously #26) The Dragons skipper has easily been the club’s most consistent player for the past several years. The Botany Rams junior took out both the club’s Player of the Year Award and Red V Members’ Player of the Year Award for a second consecutive season and was named in Brad Fittler’s extended New South Wales State of Origin squad for the first time. Standing at just 177-centimetres, the 26-year-old has quickly made a name for himself as one of the competition’s toughest, most consistent players. The one-time Rabbitoh transitioned back-and-forth between hooker and lock at different stages of the season and left his mark on games regardless of the number on his back. McInnes was the competition leader in tackles made at the conclusion of the season with 880, making them at a 94% clip – which was sixth among player who had made at least 100 tackles. His unrelenting attitude and supreme conditioning make him one of the most valuable defenders in rugby league. With ball in hand, McInnes is a smart runner of the football and provides as good service as any from dummy-half. As a lock, his yardage skyrocketed, and he found success digging in behind the ruck to generate quick play-the-balls. There’s a reason why McInnes is so highly regarded at the club. #17 Payne Haas – (Brisbane Broncos) (Previously #5) In a season to forget for Brisbane fans in 2020, there was still a diamond in the rough and that was Payne Haas. Payne Haas continues his incredible form from 2019 being one of the best forwards of the year while in a team that had some of the worst attacking stats of the season. It is becoming increasingly obvious that Payne Haas is not a human but a machine that consumes metres, chocking in 1368.6 metres in post contact metres from a total running metres for the season of 2978. Out of the 17 matches he played only in 1 game did he not make at least 100 running metres with his average for the season being 175 running metres per game. With some more experience under his belt, Payne Haas is on his way to being one of the best forwards in the game. #16 Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – (New Zealand Warriors) (Previously #3) Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (more known as RTS or something I came up with Artie S) has potentially had the toughest season out of any NRL player of all time with what he went through in the 2020 season without his family and being the only player in the Warriors team who went to Australia to last the full season without family. Placing 3rd last season in the Top 100, RTS has fallen a few places but he still had a really good year as the Warriors had a shock better season that not many people would’ve expected because of his consistent stats. RTS average metres went up from 2019 averaging 220 meters a game from 18 games with only 1 game below 150 meters per game and a massive 334 meters against the Dogs in Round 15, RTS went on to score 5 tries and a goal in 2020 which included a run of 4 tries in 3 games. RTS will once again be a key player in 2021 as he should have his family for the whole year and he should only become better as the forward pack stocks rise in the Warriors where he has the potential to have a better year than his Daily M year and help the Warriors become a powerhouse club over the next few years. #15 Isaah Yeo – (Penrith Panthers) (Previously n/a) Isaah has been a phenomenal find in 2020, the position change to lock being a masterstroke from the Penrith brains trust. He was a fan favourite before this year, but his relentless work rate and tireless attitude has truly endeared himself to the rest of the competition. Initially a second rower by trade, his move to the middle has resulted in him earning a fantastic 140 metres a game and 94% tackle efficiency. Yeo's consistency earned him a deserved NSW callup at the end of the season, and the Panthers' success is owed in part to the Dubbo grafter. #14 Josh Papalii – (Canberra Raiders) (Previously #15) Should be higher. How about this bloke. The game’s best prop for 2 years running. He is the heart of soul of this Raiders side. When the side's backs are against the wall, Josh will demand the ball and drag the side kicking and screaming up field. Punishing in defence and ruthless inside 10m in attack. A man this big shouldn’t have the foot work and speed he does. Just ask Jamal Fogarty. That tackle was a player at the peak of his game. Up by a very comfortable margin he refused to let them have an easy score. Averaging 148m a game with 55 of them being post contact he usually with 3 players hanging off him. The One True Big Papa has been in a rich vein of try scoring for a prop with 5 tries this year which puts him 6 away from Dane Gagai's career total. Let that sink in. His work in attack doesn't slow down his defensive efforts either with 96.2% tackle efficiency and all of them bruising. He only managed to miss 13 tackles for the whole year. 13!. The Raiders are a very different and scary side when he is on the field. #13 Jason Taumalolo – (North Queensland Cowboys) (Previously #4) Not much needs to be said about the Auckland-born Tongan international that hasn't already been waxed lyrical season upon season. For such a prolific impact player, his minutes (hovering around 70 per week) are astounding, especially considering the reliance his North Queensland outfit have on his shoulders. Some say this year was an off year for the enforcer. 207 metres per game, 88 post-contact metres per game, and a total of 53 tackle breaks surely puts that misconception to rest. Easily one of the most eternally reliable forwards of the modern era, Taumalolo has endured one of the Cowboys' worst seasons in recent memory and come out of it with complete dignity intact. Worth every penny and more. #12 Luke Keary – (Sydney Roosters) (Previously #9) Keary is such a pivotal part of the Roosters. Wearing the #6 but still being the clear chief playmaker, Keary is the full package. 160 kicks for 3,445 metres, 12 offloads, 24 tackle busts, 74 runs for 821 metres and 20 try assists. When Keary touches the ball, he can make things happen in a variety of ways. It will be interesting to see how he goes next year with a cloud over which young half will line up alongside Keary. #11 Jarome Luai – (Penrith Panthers) (Previously n/a) Think back to just before the season began. There was a huge debate as to whether or not Matt Burton or Jarome Luai would partner Nathan Cleary in the halves. Round 1 came around, and Ivan Cleary stuck with Luai. Fast forward to now, and Luai was one of the best players in the league in the year 2020, and it would seem ridiculous to have thought to drop him, despite the talent Matt Burton is. One of the leagues most improved players, he played a pivotal role in helping lead the side around, playing side kick to Nathan Cleary. Luai finished 3rd in the league for try assists with 23 (which doesn’t even top his team), alongside 52 tackle busts and 18 offloads. Able to control the game when Cleary is out or goes missing, he is one of the best players in the game right now. So we've hit the halfway point, this is who is left... 1 CBR, 3 MEL, 1 NEW, 1 PAR, 2 PEN, 1 SOU, 1 SYD #10 Ryan Papenhuyzen – (Melbourne Storm) (Previously #71) “Paps” had an extraordinary year, which was capped off with a Clive Churchill Medal after a man of the match performance in a Grand Final winning side. His first year starting, he has proven himself to be one of the best players in the game. 11 tries, 13 try assists, 3,463 metres off of 341 runs, 18 line breaks and 78 tackle busts. One of the most dangerous players in the league, it will be exciting watching him develop and grow his game. #9 Cody Walker – (South Sydney Rabbitohs) (Previously #50) Cody Walker flew under the radar for me and I was shocked to see him this high up. But seeing his second half of the season, it is no surprise he is here. His rich vein of form saw him score 10 tries, 24 try assists and 68 tackle busts. Being partnered next to Adam Reynolds freed him up to do less kicking and focus more on his running game, which saw him run 1,410 metres off of 157 runs. It will be interesting to see if he can find the consistency to maintain this ranking. #8 Api Koroisau – (Penrith Panthers) (Previously n/a) The form hooker of 2020, Api was as dynamic as ever this season. The diminutive rake was instrumental in Penrith achieving their high finish and took advantage of his forward pack's hitups without fail. While his serviceability at Manly was well known across his 4 seasons there, it was only this year where his name was genuinely thrown around in origin conversations, testament to his good form. With the second most receipts in the league, his links to first receiver was a feature of his attack, while he didn't neglect his responsibility in defence, with an enormous average of 50 tackles per game. The Fijian international has stepped up in 2020, and it's clear to see why. #7 Kalyn Ponga – (Newcastle Knights) (Previously #27) Ponga being ranked here is interesting. One of the more highly criticised players in the league, he still managed to finish ranked 7th. 10 tries with 16 try assists, he is the most creative player on the Newcastle roster. One of the more dynamic runners in the league, he made 276 runs for 2,726 run metres, and his evasive running style led him to have 14 line breaks, 113 tackle busts and 9 offloads. One of the most hyped players in the league, where will he be ranked next year? #6 Clint Gutherson – (Parramatta Eels) (Previously #32) I don’t think anyone expected Gutho to be ranked this high. One of the runners up for the Dally M, he had an incredible year leading Parramatta around the park. Even though Parra dropped off at the end of the year, Gutherson was their shining light. 340 runs for 3,567 run metres shows just how much effort Gutherson put into his season. 10 tries with 19 try assists, alongside 59 tackle busts and 21 offloads show how good he was in support alongside his running game. It will be interesting to see where he is listed next year, as to whether he can maintain this play or not. #5 Jack Wighton – (Canberra Raiders) (Previously #37) After winning the CCM in a beat side last year people wondered if Jack had truly peaked as a player. Jack said no and won the 2020 Dally M medal. A truly remarkable ball runner possessing the strength of a 2nd Rower, the speed of a winger and that left foot step, he just kept on trucking. Usually over the top of people. With 102m running average a game, Jack really takes the work off the forwards and why not, it's his greatest strength and led him to a career high 13 tries with 4 doubles. Don't let his running game fool you into thinking he's 1 dimensional, his kicking radar got far more accurate as the season went on and netted himself 2 40/20's along the way and very much took ownership of this Raiders side after Hodgson ruptured his ACL. He also an ability to position himself between the half and 2nd rower to take some impressive aerial kicks. Jack still keeps living up to his reputation as a noted defender, a big hitter who can scramble well saw him missing only 45 for the year. Wighton of the Week has a whole new meaning and it's kinda scary. One of the games genuine elite halves. #4 Cameron Munster – (Melbourne Storm) (Previously #11) Munster pushed his way up to 4th on the list and has cemented himself as one of the games best players. A danger in all facets of the game (running, kicking, passing) he can do it all. 156 runs for 1,388 metres along with 53 tackle busts and 18 offloads show that Munster is a danger running the ball. His 110 kicks for 2,959 metres show that he can put boot to ball to control a game, combined with his 11 try assists show he can set his teammates up to score with ease. Excellent season from Munster, will he still be able to maintain this ranking in 2021? #3 Cameron Smith – (Melbourne Storm) (Previously #2) Has Cam played his last season? That remains to be seen at this stage. But his illustrious career at the Storm is over it seems as a player. At 37 years of age, you’d think he would slow down. You’d be wrong. 184 points scored, 17 try assists, Cam was great at helping his team score points as well as set them up. He was no slouch in defence, making 600 tackles with only 25 missed. Free to join the refereeing ranks for real now, whether or not he retires, he is a great of the game and the arguable GOAT and the game will be weird without him. #2 James Tedesco – (Sydney Roosters) (Previously #1) James Tedesco is still the best player in the league despite this ranking, don’t let that fool you. The Sydney fullback is still arguably the most important player, not just to the Roosters, but the league. Towards the end of the year, he switched it on and hit a purple patch and tried to carry the Roosters. He made 371 runs for 3,798 metres (both most in the league), along with 127 tackle busts (also the most in the league), alongside 24 offloads (18th) and 16 line breaks (13th). Scoring 11 tries himself, he also had 15 try assists, he is a spark for the Roosters and is their most important player. #1 Nathan Cleary – (Penrith Panthers) (Previously #49) On the 29th of April 2020, young Penrith halfback Nathan Cleary features in a TikTok video, showcasing him dancing with friends, breaking Covid-19 protocol and subsequently undermining his position as a role model in the public eye. Just over 5 months earlier, his father was controversially employed as head coach of his club, calling into question professionalism and separation of family and work. Cleary had just endured two tough seasons, especially in the representative arena, where many doubted his selection and were arguably vindicated, based on his absent performances in origin. Is this guy really that good, or just a beneficiary of a handy surname? 2020 was to be his most important year yet, and he's already started it in the most immature way possible. Flash forward 6 months, and by October he leads an elite pack of footballers to their first grand final in years. Funny how things can change. Nathan's season was a tour de force in more ways than one can imagine. His gelling with previously fringe 5/8 Jarome Luai was a textbook example of a match-made-in-heaven halves combination - while Luai is no complete footballer, his skillset complemented Cleary's with vivacity and dynamism, and vice versa. He led his pack with his kicking game with an average kick metres of 495 per game; his game management skills at the forefront of this. Most notably, however, his 17 try assists and 11 line break assists were the real mitochondria in Penrith's incredible run to the grand final. But it is indeed a cruel twist of irony that Cleary ended the year tragically stumbling at the last dance, mere months after it kicked off with a misguided dance of his own. In the end, 2020 was bittersweet for Nathan. Penrith's failure to defeat Melbourne in the grand final was disappointing; but shan't take away from the fact they wouldn't be there if not for him. Similarly, NSW's failures under his direction in Origin highlighted his need to prove himself in big matches; however, one should not forget the achievement that this is the first year he truly deserved selection to the side on merit alone. The bright side? Nathan is 23. In that time, he's played 100 first grade games, 8 origins and led a young spine to a premiership grand final. It remains to be seen whether he can make his mark as a truly elite echelon halfback, but in the meantime, being simply a quality one is nothing to sneeze at. So, NRL, as a result, it pleases me to officially say that Nathan Cleary is your 2020 player of the year. And that is all for the Top 100 list for 2020, I hope everyone enjoyed it. Here is the TL:DR of the list for those who don't want to read. Let me know what your thoughts on how close it was to what you would have, and have a great Christmas everyone.
A PvP Analysis on Level 40+ Pokémon in Master League
And now for something completely different! I try very hard to make my analysis articles entertaining as well as informative. But I'll be straightforward up front: this is not going to be my typical style of analysis. I began this before Christmas in preparation for the return of Master League to GO Battle League, and what you're going to see below is largely a listing of my findings as I sought to answer a question I know many have right now: what will be the impact of Level 40+ Pokémon in a league with uncapped CP? Is it worth trying to get into, and if so, what kind of investment are we talking about here? WHAT should we invest in to get the most bang for our buck, the best return on investment? Do we have to take things all the way up to 50, or can we dip a couple toes in those waters, invest SOME but not ALL, and still compete? So, I started at the top, with the big Legendaries pegged out at Level 50, but that was only a small part of the story. I then moved into something that is probably much more helpful: an analysis on Legendaries/Mythicals and then non-Legendaries at Level 45 and below, a much more reasonable investment, to start to answer those loaded questions. End of the day, I can guarantee this will not fully answer those (or your) questions, but this SHOULD be a way to get you on the right track and give you at least a working knowledge going into these unknown and somewhat scary waters. That's the goal, anyway! So again, apologies on my somewhat rambling style of getting there (finally catching COVID last week and currently trying to fight it off hasn't helped 😷), but let's see how this goes! Initially, just a list of Level 50 Legendaries, but I promise things get a little more user-friendly as I started to hit a little bit of a stride.... MEWTWO Level 50 Psystrike/Shadow Ball Mewtwo loses to Lugia, Ho-Oh, Kyogre, Origin Giratina (it beats Altered!), Dragonite, and sometimes Garchomp (requires successful baiting). Palkia ties. Level 50 Psystrike/Ice Beam Mewtwo loses to Metagross, Lugia, Ho-Oh, Kyogre, and Origin Giratina. Palkia again ties. Level 50 Psystrike/Focus Blast Mewtwo loses to Lugia, Ho-Oh, Metagross, Origin Giratina, Kyogre, and Dragonite. Kyogre can lose and Palkia is now a slight win for Mewtwo. THE GIRATINAS Level 50 Altered Giratina looks best with SC/DC/AP, with close losses only to Dialga, Snorlax, and Groudon. Note the lack of Togekiss! Giratina now wins that, as well as picking up wins against Lugia, Dragonite, Garchomp, Mamoswine, and Origin Giratina. Level 50 Origin Giratina is perhaps even scarier, losing only to Dragonite, Snorlax, and sometimes Garchomp. Once again, Togekiss is now in the win column, as well as Dialga, Palkia, Zekrom, Rhyperior, and Mamoswine. DIALGA Level 50 Dialga is surprisingly not as dominant as you may expect. Still loses to Fighers (Machamp, Conkeldurr), Ground (MS Rhyperior, Groudon, Swampert), plus Mamoswine, Ho-Oh, Melmetal, and Metagross. Heatran is a 1 HP win, so often that will flip too. Other than that, really the only losses at Level 40 that flip to wins at Level 50 are Mewtwo, Garchomp, and Snorlax. GROUDON Level 50 Groudon loses to Dragonite, Ho-Oh, Lugia, and of course Kyogre. New wins are Palkia, Garchomp, and a former tie with Origin Giratina. THE BIRDS Level 50 Lugia has only Steels (Dialga, Melmetal, Metagross, and Heatran) to worry about... it now wipes out the rest of the ML core meta, picking up wins against Palkia, Zekrom, and Origin Giratina. Level 50 Ho-Oh still loses to Kyogre, Origin Giratina, Zekrom, and sometimes Garchomp, and has to be careful how it plays against Level 40 Ho-Oh or it can actually lose that too by debuffing itself. HEATRAN...? Level 50 Heatran is still surprisingly tepid, still losing to Kyogre, Palkia, and Swampert, Groudon and Rhyperior, Machamp, Snorlax, both Giratinas, Garchomp, Zekrom, and even Steels Dialga and Melmetal (and likely a partridge in a pear tree, if that were meta). The only new win going from Level 40 to 50? The mirror match. This one is a total dud. THE WATERS Level 50 Kyogre loses out to Dialga, Origin Giratina, Zekrom, Palkia, Dragonite, and Thunder Kyogre. If the Level 50 Kyogre has Thunder, it now loses to Altered Giratina but obviously picks up the mirror match versus any smaller Kyogre. However, that potential win over A-Gira and a win over Lugia are its only pickups going from 40 up to 50. Level 50 Palkia looks potentially terrifying, with ONLY Togekiss listed among Level 40s that beat Palkia. Dialga can tie, but that's it. In truth, though, perhaps that shouldn't be quite so shocking, as even Level 40 Palkia is arguably a bit underrated. New wins for Level 50 include Dialga, Melmetal, Altered Giratina, Dragonite, and Zekrom. ZEKROM Speaking of which, Level 50 Zekrom retains losses against Togekiss, Dialga, Swampert, Mamoswine, Mewtwo (with Ice Beam), and sometimes Garchomp. The new wins include Rhyperior, Altered Giratina, and Dragonite, the last of which can JUST barely beat Level 40 Zekrom. Now as I said, a lot of this is academic at this point, as these are not currently catchable and therefore there's no way to get XL candy beyond the handful of Rare XLs from leveling yourself above 40, or the occasional toss-in you may get--if you're lucky!--from transferred or maybe trading. (Has that been re-enabled yet? I see conflicting reports.) But there IS one Legendary/Mythical that IS catchable right now, and in decently large quantities... MELMETAL. MELMETAL You can catch dozens of Meltan every week if you want to, so this is one where you could legit start stockpiling XL candy. (And even better, we're entering the winter months in much of the world with potential for snowy weather, so that means boosted Meltan and even higher probability of XL candy during those periods.) What do you get for your troubles? Well, Level 50 Melmetal tacks on some improbable wins, like Mud Slap Rhyperior and Ho-Oh, as well as any version of Kyogre and of course the mirror match. It does still lose to the Fighters, the Giratinas, Swampert, Groudon, Garchomp, Zekrom, and Metagross, so there are certainly still several limitations here. But yes, leveling up Melmetal does make enough sense to be worth it, if you're willing to make the commitment and grind for it. But again, still mostly academic. Even for Melmetal, with the current system, it will take a good long while to amass the 270+ XL candy to push all the way up to the new max at Level 50. You MIGHT be able to push up into the low 40s in time for it to matter for GBL, so what sort of gains do you get from that? Let's start this time with Mel, the most easily achievable, and then work our way backwards. MELMETAL (Part II: Electric Boogaloo) You already pick up the mirror as soon as you go to Level 40.5, not surprisingly. But you only need hit Level 41.5 to start beating Kyogre (with any combination of moves). That is "only" 30 XL candy and 30,000 dust (or less if you best buddied your Melmetal and it's already a bit above 40), which may actually be achievable with some good Meltan catches, especially if you already got started on that. You have to go all the way up to Level 45.5 to pick up the next new win (Ho-Oh), so that's out of reach for now. But getting Melmetal mirrors and Kyogre seem potentially worth it for an early XL candy investment. A quick run through the others, just in bullet form. I'll spare you (and the Reddit servers!) the links and just hit these in quick succession:
KYOGRE has to go up to Level 44 to gain a win (Altered Giratina).
PALKIA can beat Dragonite starting at Level 41, which some of you may have already Best Buddied your way into. The next pickup I see is Melmetal, but not until Level 43.5.
ZEKROM has to go all the way up to Level 45 before it flips a (non-mirror) matchup, finally beating Level 40 Dragonite.
ALTERED GIRATINA can beat Level 40 Origin Giratina starting at Level 41.5, just a hair beyond the old BB max-out. Again, 30,000 dust and 30 XL candy... hard to get soon, but you can see the light at the end of that tunnel, at least. The next two are out there but significant, with Mamoswine at Level 43.5 and then Togekiss at Level 44. Noticing a pattern already where many are hitting a nice sweet spot somewhere between Levels 43 and 45....
ORIGIN GIRATINA actually tracks pretty similarly. At Level 41.5, it picks up Groudon, and then again hits that sweet spot right at Level 44 with wins over Dialga (moveset irrelvant) and Zekrom.
MEWTWO keeps that trend alive. With Ice Beam, it gains Rhyperior at Level 42.5, and then Swampert and (somehow) Heatran at--you guessed it!--Level 44. (A quick aside: that Heatran win is actually just accomplished with triple Psystrike, so assume that win is always there once Mewtwo hits 44.) Similar gains with Shadow Ball, getting Rhyperior at 42.5 and Swampert at Level 44 (and Heatran again). With Focus Blast it has to go a bit further, not seeing a new win (other than the Level 44 Heatran) until Level 44.5 (Groudon) and then Garchomp half a level later at Level 45.
DIALGA has some early gains but then a decent gap, with the first new wins showing at Level 43 (Snorlax) and 43.5 (Ice Beam Mewtwo), but then no more until Level 45.5 (and that's only Heatran).
LUGIA can best Level 40 Origin Giratina at Level 43, but that's it until you get way high into the 40s.
HO-OH sees some very early results. At Level 40.5, it can already overcome Dragonite and Thunder Dialga, and then it also potentially picks up Garchomp starting at Level 41.5, and the next pickup is Lugia at Level 44.5. And as before, Ho-Oh has to be careful how it plays the mirror versus lower level Ho-Oh, as throwing the first Brave Bird probably spells disaster, and that is reflected by winning the mirror at Level 40, and then losing it at Level 40.5 before picking it up again starting at Level 41, though with the opponent not throwing Brave Bird at all! Sims really struggle with this one.
GROUDON also has some very interesting sim results that will require some time to explain. It starts off easy, with good news coming quickly after 40, as Origin Giratina (and Groudon itself, of course) flip to wins as early as Level 40.5. But then something weird happens. Starting at Level 41.5, Groudon somehow LOSES a win that it had at lower levels, and there are no self-debuffing tricks at play in this case. So how can that be? To sum it up as simply as possible, the opponent in question is Togekiss, and what's happening is a weird simulation glitch. As Groudon reaches 41.5, Togekiss switches from using Ancient Power and Groudon sneaking in a fourth and final Fire Punch, to now using a different charge move once Groudon hits Level 41.5 (I honestly have no idea why, sorry!) and that throws off the timing JUST enough that Groudon now falls short of that fourth Fire Punch and dies. In reality, the way for Togekiss to play that is to just straight Charm Groudon down, which means a victory for Kiss all the way up until Groudon hits a bulk point at Level 44.5 (dropping Charm to 12 damage instead of 13) and is able to live long enough to reach that extra knockout Fire Punch again. Whew! That one took some digging.
TL;DR #1:
So to sum all that up, here are some conclusions I can draw, basically a TL;DR to much of the above:
Most Legendaries have a key pickup or two somewhere in the Level 43-45 range, and then plateau there a bit until finding more success in the upper 40s as they approach 50. I didn't list all those results here specifically, but getting beyond Level 45 is tough anyway with the prohibitive costs, so I tried to highlight 45 and down, which is at least somewhat more reasonable.
The Legendaries with the most immediate gains are Ho-Oh and Groudon, which gain new wins (two for Ho-Oh and one for Groudon) at Level 40.5. Ho-Oh also picks up Garchomp at Level 41.5, and so with potentially three new wins for "only" 30,000 dust and 30 XL candy, Ho-Oh looks like the big winner overall.
Other "bargains" that net multiple wins below Level 45 are the Giratinas, with both versions netting three new wins by the time they hit Level 44, and then Palkia and Mewtwo, with two wins by the time they hit 43.5, and Dialga who gets two wins by the time it reaches Level 44.
NOW, before your brains start leaking out of your ears (well, any more than they already are), let's blow through some NON-Legendary Master League contenders and see where they shake out. As this has already run a bit long, I will try to highlight on those who stand to gain the most at Level 45 or lower.
SWAMPERT sees a massive jump when going from Level 40 up to Level 50, but there's a catch: only two of those wins come below Level 45, A-Giratina at Level 42 and Groudon at Level 44.5. Those last four wins don't start showing up until Level 48.5 and higher. Ouch. In Premier, it does sneak past Haxorus at Level 41, but then its only other notable picklup is not until Level 44 (Glaceon). Swampert is not one to level up just a bit beyond 40 to see big results... you need to take it nearly all the way up.
DRAGONITE is a poor candidate for XLing in open Master League. Other than the mirror match, it doesn't see any new wins until Level 47 (Dialga) and then the only other new win (over Mewtwo) comes at Level 49. It IS more promising in Premier Cup though, with new wins over Glaceon at Level 42.5, Scizor at Level 43, and Shadow Magnezone at Level 44.
On the plus side, we have MACHAMP. It sees gains as early as Level 40.5 (Magnezone, even if baited, though it can win even at 40, albeit barely, if it just goes straight Counter), and then at 41.5 (now having enough bulk to beat Level 40 Haxorus), and TWO gains at Level 43 (Dragon Breath Gyarados and Mamoswine). The original Fighting *champ looks to be a very good investment for super sizing with XL candy!
CONKELDURR sees some nice returns right away, beating the mirror and Haxorus as well at Level 40.5, but it doesn't see another gain until Level 44.5 (Typhlosion).
SNORLAX looks potentially very promising as an XL candy investment. With Earthquake (generally the preferred second charge move for open ML, primarily due to its ability to roll over Dialga), Lax can start to beat Level 40 Ho-Oh at Level 41.5, Lugia at Level 43, and then Rhyperior, Melmetal, AND Togekiss at Level 44.5. With Superpower instead of Earthquake, generally preferred in Premier Cup, it beats Rhyperior earlier (Level 42), and it's also worth noting that Lax beats Gyarados with either Dragon Breath or Waterfall at Level 41 (with just Body Slam). If you're going to invest in a good Snorlax, it's probably safe to stop at Level 44.5 for a while, since the only gains it has after that are Garchomp (two full levels later, at 46.5, and only if it doesn't get baited) and Zekrom all the way up at Level 49.5.
Incredibly, Togekiss doesn't see any new wins until Level 49, when it finally beats Dialga, and then it also gets Mewtwo at Level 49.5. But yeah... not a great max out (again) candidate, it would seem.
Similarly, SHADOW GARDEVOIR sees only one (non-mirror) win before Level 45, taking out Swampert at Level 41.5. Seems that Charmers in general don't benefit all that much from leveling beyond 40
RHYPERIOR (running with Mud Slap/Surf/Rock Wrecker) sees gains at Level 41.5 (Conkeldurr), Level 43 (Lugia, Haxorus, and Shadow Snorlax), and Level 44.5 (Altered Giratina!), but has a ways to go to achieve more beyond that. Smack Down Rhyperior has less to gain, with only Zekrom at Level 44 (and nothing of note in Premier Cup).
MAMOSWINE has to go a ways to find success, but then finds a bunch in that 43-45 sweet spot, with Snorlax and Heatran at Level 42.5, Mewtwo at Level 43.5, Conkeldurr at Level 44, and finally Lugia at Level 44.5. In Premier Cup, it also picks up Charizard and Shadow Gardevoir along the way. Mamoswine starts out looking very lackluster at Level 40, but by the time it gets near Level 45, Mamo looks quite respectable... against Level 40 competition, at least.
CHARIZARD is a little lackluster in ML at Level 40, but by the time it gets to Level 45 it looks quite a bit better. Level 41.5 is a BIG one for Zard, as it picks up Dialga, Snorlax, AND Typhlosion, and then Glaceon at Level 45.
And there are others, of course... but I need to wrap it up here. First off, I am actively fighting off COVID-19 (finally hit our household days before Christmas... Happy Holidays indeed!), and secondly, Master League is almost upon us (less than 24 hours away now!) and I want to get this out with a little time to prep. Additionally, I think I've probably fried your brains by now--this was much more dry than most of my writeups, for which I apologize--and also, others I could look at like Garchomp and Magnezone are very bait-heavy and it is therefore hard to properly show them in sims, and what is shown doesn't show drastic improvement anyway. (Take Zone, for example, which looks the same at Level 45 as it does at Level 40 anyway.) Besides, hopefully by now I accomplished my primary goal anyway: showing that if you choose to invest in XL Pokémon, you don't HAVE to go full bore to 50 to see big improvements... and there are a few (like the Charmers) that you may want to just leave alone at Level 40 (or 41 for Best Friends) anyway. Level 45 seems a reasonable enough cutoff point, and there are many that you can go far below even that and see some good pickups. I will atempt to do a quick TL;DR to summarize all the non-Legendaries above:
TL;DR #2:
As with the Legendaries, a lot of the non-Legendaries find great success in the Level 43-45 range. However, many of them also find success earlier. The best ones are MACHAMP and RHYPERIOR (MS/S/RW), which both pick up four significant new wins by the time they hit Level 43, which may actually be achievable at 64,000 stardust and "only" 64 XL candy. If you already have them best buddied up to Level 41, then you save yourself 20,000 and 20 XL candy. Charizard is close, picking up three wins at Level 41.5.
MAMOSWINE only nets two wins below 43, but then gets three more by the time it gets to Level 45. Similarly, Earthquake SNORLAX only achieves two new wins at Level 43 or below, but then picks up three more at Level 44.5. Dragonite gets three new wins before Level 45, but only against things typically seen in Premier Cup rather than open ML (Shadow Zone, Glaceon, Scizor).
Some of those who need to be leveled above 43 to see real gains include the Charmers (TOGEKISS has to go all the way up to Level 49, and SHADOW GARDEVOIR gets only Swampert early on and then nothing for a long time), SWAMPERT (only two wins below 45 and then none again until after Level 48), and CONKELDURR (only one win below Level 43, another right before it hits 45, and then nothing for a little while beyond that).
WHEW. Okay, yeah, I know this one was a bit of a chore to get through... believe me, it took many days of plowing through literally hundreds of sims to write it too! 😫 But if you did, I sincerely hope this is of benefit to you moving forward into the brave new world of Master League XL. This season, we get a choice not to dabble in Master at all yet, as we can instead stick with Holiday Cup (which, as a reminder, I did an in depth--and much less dry--analysis on as well!). But if you intend to forge into the wilds of ML now--or we're forced to in the future--now you have at least a little more knowledge on what to expect (or not!) from Pokémon leveled beyond 40. Good luck! I do have an analysis (which is much more my usual style) in the works on Genesect with its various Techno Blasts, and you can expect that this week. Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of COVID stays this knowledge courier from completion of my appointed rounds! Until then, you can always find me on Twitter with near-daily PvP analysis nuggets (or Patreon if you're into that). And as always, please feel free to comment here with your own thoughts or questions and I'll try to get back to you. I am hoping this will spawn some good discussion on things I missed... as long as this analysis was, I feel in some ways like I just scratched the surface of all the implications. 😬 Stay safe out there, Pokéfriends. Thanks again for reading, and catch you next time! Much more fun than catching coronavirus! 😷
Giant Ass Shang-Chi Rant (spoilers for a bunch of Shang-Chi comics for anyone that cares, but I know no one really does)
Hello, time for me to ramble about my favorite Marvel character Shang-Chi. Over the years, Shang-Chi has been incredibly underutilized which I thought was weird since Marvel was trying to focus on pushing diversity, but seemingly forgot about their most famous male Asian character (and when I say most famous that's only because who the fuck actually knows any Asian Marvel characters). Before this comic and the recent Agents of Atlas comics (where Shang is basically a cameo character), Shang-Chi basically just appeared in random comics to say epic one liners. To be fair though, he does have some really badass quotes, but it's such a waste of a cool character to have him punch a few times and then look pretty for the camera. I know a lot of characters deserve more attention, but I'm biased so Shang deserves it more. Shang-Chi has recently gotten a miniseries to promote the character more before his upcoming movie, but before I gush about Gene Luen Yang's Shang-Chi miniseries, here's context to the character's modern appearances. Shang's lore recently has been pretty god awful and Marvel just didn't know what to do with him. To give you a general summary of Shang-Chi, he's the son of THE Yellow Peril villain, Fu Manchu. He was created to become the ultimate living weapon (move over Iron Fist) and was raised to practically worship his father Fu Manchu. After killing an old dude under his dad's order, he learned that killing people was actually a bad thing to do and that his dad wasn't actually a good person. Cue redemption arc with him joining the MI6 and becoming a mix of Bruce Lee and James Bond as a kung-fu fighting super spy. Numerous story arcs of Shang involves him fighting his dad, not killing him, or killing him, but then he comes back to life. This most definitely didn't become boring after the millionth time so I was incredibly happy when Marvel decided to recycle this storyline for Shang-Chi's appearance in Secret Avengers. To make matters worse, Shang literally doesn't do anything noteworthy this comic and becomes a damsel-in-distress after he gets captured by his dad's goons and by the way his dad's name is now Zheng Zu for legal purposes. The one good thing about this story arc is that they seemingly kill his dad off for good. Fortunately, the next Secret Avengers series treats Shang better by giving him a nice little fight scene. Before Secret Avengers however, Shang-Chi had a big role in the Civil War Heroes for Hire and to a lesser extent in Marvel Knights. Marvel Knights is really forgettable and not really worth discussing, but it has Shang directly scaling to this bullet timing feat, so that gives it points in my book. Heroes for Hire is actually a really fun book and has some badass moments for Shang-Chi. This book sets up Shang's most interesting romance he ever has. Shang's trying to avoid killing like he used to in the old days but his love interest, Tarantula, is an assassin who kills a lot. Surely this will be a very healthy relationship. Well, the series ends with Shang breaking his one rule for her but this is never followed up. They never make another appearance with one another and Shang never mentions her ever again. Shang-Chi's most important role in modern comics, other than Heroes for Hire and Secret Avengers, is becoming a full-fledged Avenger in Hickman's run. He's basically a glorified cameo character, but the little appearances he does make are all really good actually. He even gets what's probably his coolest fight in his battle against Gorgon in Avengers World. Hickman's run also features what's probably the biggest moment for Shang in recent history where he gets the power to duplicate himself. But as I mentioned before, Marvel really doesn't know what they're doing with Shang. This seems to be a giant status quo changing moment for the character, but these powers are literally only in one other comic where he beats some mooks and that's it. These powers are then never mentioned again. Recently Marvel remembered they had Asian characters and decided to pander to their Asian audience heavily by making a new Agents of Atlas, a team comprised coincidentally of only Asian heroes. In this, Shang is literally a background character that punches mooks and that's it. Other than these stories and the some attempts Marvel made to revive his run that I'll talk about later, Shang has made some minor appearances in random comics. He appeared in a Black Panther comic that was god awful. The issue practically ended with Shang giving Black Panther permission to bang his sister. This comic also features equally great moments like Luke Cage not knowing who Shang-Chi is, despite being part of the same team in Marvel Knights and having a mutual best pal in Danny Rand, and also the scene of Shang's dad being a racist asshole. While Fu Manchu/Han/Zheng Zu has always been portrayed as an asshole, he isn't shown to be racist and even adopts a black orphan as his son (who also became a Silver Surfer villain for some reason). So yeah that comic sucked. Shang also appears in Spider-Island to teach Peter the Way of the Spider which has been left forgotten similar to how Marvel forgets about Shang-Chi. Shang makes a pretty recent appearance in a Domino comic where he served as a love interest and then ditched Domino, renouncing her as his pupil, because she killed a villain that was trying to kill her. Tbh kind of a dick move Shang. I'll give Marvel props for at least trying to gauge interest in a Shang-Chi comic through their different miniseries of him. Too bad one of them completely sucked and the others were one offs. The one that sucked was Deadly Hands of Kung Fu, where they basically shit on the previous Shang-Chi stories. Not only is Shang drawn as a brown haired white guy in parts of the comic for some reason, but they kill off his primary love interest, Leiko Wu. Leiko's last appearance had her and Shang going their separate paths with her marrying a James Bond knockoff, but this story ignores that and for reason she's in love with a one off Shang-Chi villain who has maces chained around his hands. She then becomes resurrected as a vengeful ghost for some reason. This story is very convoluted and thankfully, it's just getting swept under the rug by Gene Luen Yang. The other revival of Shang-Chi's run was Master of Kung Fu #126 which was actually really enjoyable. It didn't take itself seriously at all and had a super wacky villain who was a goofy evil doctor named Mel Prasis as in malpractice. His goal was to kidnap Shang-Chi to absorb his skills into a machine to then create an army of kung-fu octopi. Just a balls to the walls premise that also gave Shang a monkey sidekick that exclusively aims for the eyes. My only complaint of this issue was that there wasn't more. The goofiness of this comic was something I really missed from the early Master of Kung Fu comics where Shang had the stupidest villains like Razorfist or Shadow Stalker. The other one off Shang-Chi comic was in Bizarre Adventures #2 which had a pretty neat premise. Shang-Chi arrives in a ghost city to engage in an epic martial arts showdown with an unnamed old man. It's a silly but awesome fight which actually has Shang-Chi and the old guy be portrayed as very strong. Which brings in another example of how Marvel doesn't know what to do with Shang. Originally Shang was portrayed as a Marvel peak human like Captain America. He was definitely one of the upper level peak humans by feats (insert self plug to my respect thread of Shang-Chi here) but at the end of the day, he had no powers. Some modern comics keep this trait and portray him as such with him being on the level of other Marvel street tiers. But nowadays Shang is being portrayed as basically a chi user like Iron Fist despite them never directly addressing him as one. So now we get randomly get scenes like this where you no longer can call Shang peak human. We also get scenes where Shang is portrayed as superior to Iron Fist, but now he shoots Hadokens and charged chi attacks, but again he's treated more like a nonpowered human in other appearances like Agents of Atlas. Now time to talk about Yang's Shang-Chi series. It's not finished as of now, but the issues so far have done a great job at reinventing the character and answers a lot of Shang's backstory. Fun fact, Shang was born in New York in an underground fortress that emulated China, but every comic after that has ignored that and this comic confirms he was born in China. I kinda miss how stupid that part of his backstory was, but this change does make more sense. This book also ignores Shang's other siblings in favor of new ones by introducing a new part to his lore. Shang's dad Zheng Zu was part of a secret organization that protected China called the Five Weapons Society. Shang was born as part of this society unbeknownst to him as the heir of the House of the Deadly Fist. Shang was raised there along with his sister who later became the heir of the House of the Deadly Hammer, with Shang have other siblings he never knew being part of the Deadly Staff, Sabre, and Dagger. This is a rather interesting addition to Shang's backstory as it adds a little more oomph to his dad's organization instead of it being your everyday generic evil martial art ninja secret society. Gene basically gets rid of Shang's more problematic origins with his dad being a racist caricature and creates a whole new cast for Shang to interact with, because tbh his old cast in the original Master of Kung Fu comics was ass. This comic will also probably set the stage for future comics and it practically confirms Shang is a chi user and he's definitely portrayed as pretty fucking strong in this comic. This is probably gonna upset the two other Shang-Chi fans in the world, but I'm all for it cuz I'm a sucker for over the top action. The comic's premise is also captivating to read as it reveals that Zheng Zu's successor is chosen by him from beyond the grave when the current heir, the head of the Deadly Staff, is murdered by Shang's sister, the head of the Deadly Hammer. But instead of choosing her, Zheng Zu mysteriously chooses the traitor son who directly had a hand in his death, Shang-Chi, as his heir. This leads to Shang's sister, the only sibling he ever knew, attempting to kill him to take over as leader with Shang finally meeting his other siblings from the Deadly Sabre and Dagger. This is probably premise wise the coolest story Shang has ever been in and I'm excited to see how it plays out. Plus, I think it gives Shang-Chi the coolest costume he's ever had as Marvel's finally trying to move away from him being a Bruce Lee knockoff. So yeah, thank god for Gene Luen Yang.
Detroit Manager Jason Varitek wins Manager of the Year!
SP Casey Mize finishes 2nd in CYA voting.
SP Kumar Rocker receives CYA consideration.
RF Yaya Chentouf finished 5th in MVP voting.
2B Willi Castro and SP Casey Mize received MVP consideration.
SP Kumar Rocker represents the USA in the WBC.
RP Brett de Geus represents the USA in the WBC.
3B Jordan Diaz represents Columbia in the WBC.
CF Jairo Pomares represents Cuba in the WBC.
2B Willi Castro represents Puerto Rico in the WBC.
Offseason Transactions
Owner gave us a $14,000,000 budget increase, but we have huge arbitration estimates for Castro and Mize. League News:
RF Ramon Laureano signs with the Cubs for $130M/6.
C Francisco Mejia signs with the Brewers for $24M/7.
3B Yoan Moncada signs with the Cardinals for $136M/5.
RP Joe Jimenez signs with the Cardinals for $5.6M/2.
SP Chris Paddack signs with the Phillies for $103M/5.
SP Matthew Boyd signs with the Astros for $32M/3.
1B Josh Bell signs with the Twins for $13.4M/2.
SS Trevor Story signs with the Nationals for $116M/5.
SP Pablo Lopez signs with the Phillies for $113M/5.
SS Carlos Correa signs with the Rockies for $74M/5.
SP Tyler Mahle signs with the Red Sox for $82M/5.
SS Willy Adames stays with the Rays for $111M/6.
SP Dinelson Lamet signs with the Rangers for $92M/5.
SP C.C. Sabathia and OF Manny Ramirez make the HoF.
Detroit Departures:
RP Drew Carlton
SP/RP Sandy Alcantara
Detroit Trades: Trade #1 Detroit receives: SP Jackson Phipps, $3,500,000 Oakland receives: SP Franklin Perez, RP Hector Flores, RP Luis Araujo I've been meaning to deal Perez for awhile now due to his fragile status and after seeing that he couldn't cut it in the rotation for me, I decided to move him. Phipps looked great in the rotation and in the bullpen last year, whereas Perez looked elite in the pen but not in the rotation. I need the cheap, controlled contract in my rotation. Trade #2 Detroit receives: SP Luke Weaver (COL retains 60%), SS Aiverson Rodriguez Colorado receives: C Jake Rogers, 1B Brandon Smith Colorado has been trying to move Weaver all season and I finally decided to see what they wanted. I'm looking for a reliable fifth arm and I think Weaver gives me that. He's had four straight seasons of performance slightly better than league average, including the most recent in a horrible park for pitchers. He's been a bit unlucky according to his FIP vs ERA+, so I'm hopeful he'll be even better for us than he was for the Rockies, plus, it's a one-year rental and Colorado is paying for 60% of the bill. I'm pretty jazzed about Rodriguez too, he had a good enough year in A+ to head to AA next year and he has elite defensive abilities, which I could use in a future short stop. All in all it costs me a first base prospect who can't play the field at all and my backup catcher - which means I can clear the role for Romo to go ahead and come to the major league level. Trade #3 Detroit receives: RP Isaiah Magwood, 2B Cody Schrier, $3,000,000 Arizona receives: 2B Marcus Chiu, SP Beau Burrows Burrows has looked legit for me in AAA the last two seasons, both in relief and as a starter. Chiu is at a logjam at 2B in my prospect pipeline, with both being 28, I don't see them with a future on my team. Burrows may be a steal for the Diamondbacks, but I love the prospects I'm getting in return. Trade #4 Detroit receives: RP Connor Jones, $350,000 St. Louis receives: RF Yusniel Diaz I wanted Diaz to be more for me, but he never really got it done at the MLB level. He continued to be decent in AAA, but I think he's a AAAA guy. Maybe he'll flourish in St. Louis, but I like the chances of Jones being good for me for a bit in the pen. Trade #5 Detroit receives: RP Jorge Alcala (OAK retains 75%) Oakland receives: SP Michael Baumann Alcala was a 2.3 WAR reliever last year and I think he could be even better with Vazquez behind the dish. Baumann is coming off of a 6 month injury - so he could be good, but my scout is out on him and the injury scares me. Trade #6 Detroit receives: RP DL Hall, $1,000,000 Arizona receives: RP David McKay McKay is coming off of a 6 month injury that cost him all of last season and is denying going to AAA. Hall gives me some option years and a nice MLC that I can use as an extra starter or bullpen arm. Trade #7 Detroit receives: RP Andrew Dalquist, SS Layant Tapia Chicago receives: RP David Parkinson I don't have enough spots on my major league roster or my 40 man, so Parkinson is another casualty of this. I grab a couple of prospects to restock the pitching reserves and Tapia helps out some of my more barren levels in the minors right now. Plus it clears the spot on the 40-man and Parkinson hasn't been good in the majors. Trade #8 Detroit receives: RP Levi Kelly, SS Nicolas Perez, $4,000,000 Arizona receives: SP Tarik Skubal Arizona wants Skubal as a starter and I don't think he's going to crack the rotation this year, not with the money I decided to pay Weaver. I may regret that, but Skubal's personality profile leaves a lot to be desired despite his solid year in the rotation last year. Kelly gives me a more natural bullpen arm as his replacement at the major league level, which I like - he's also more cost controlled and younger. Perez has obvious upside - he's a future gold glover at short stop and I'll just pray the hit tool improves to go along with it. Detroit Additions: C Christian Vazquez - I had to give him $7,500,000 over 2 years, presumably due to the gold glove. I wasn't ready to risk moving his ability behind the plate. 2B Willi Castro - I may have jumped the gun here, but I decided to extend Castro. I'll pay him $118M over 5 years, which I believe will be much cheaper than if I'd let him continue through his last arbitration season. I didn't do this with Casey Mize and his initial demands are 40M+, so this is a reaction to that.
Spring Training
We have $11.9M available for the season, $12,000,000 for the draft and $5,500,000 for international amateurs. We're spending the maximum allowed on development.
Regular Season
First Half We're projected to win 94 games this season and finish 10 games back of the Indians. Damn them. That should make us the second best team in the AL, according to the predictions. Willi Castro is projected as a top hitter, while Mize and Manning are projected to be top pitchers. I'm hopeful that Rocker joins that as well. We open against the Astros and take a 4-3 win in extra innings. I hope that we are this tough all season. We start off strong, going 8-1 through our first three series' leading up to a matchup with our division foes in Cleveland, who are also 8-1. I expected a fight, but we punched them in the mouth right away and secured a series sweep. If we can play like this, it's going to be a phenomenal season. Our twelve game winning streak ends with a loss to the Athletics, but we sit at 13-2 following the run, which is better than expected. The Royals are off to a hot start as well and sit in 2nd in the division, but our first matchup with them results in a sweep for us and pushes them 5 games back and into a tie with the Indians. As April ends, we sit at 25-8, a comfortable 4 game lead on the Royals. The Indians are struggling at 16-17 and 9 games back. I expect they'll sort it out though, but we look really nice after April. Notably, Evan White leads the league with a .378 average, but Mike Moustakas is off to a hot start with 18 homeruns for the Twins, an 88 homerun pace. On May 8th we decide to move Jackson Phipps into the pen, who has been struggling, and give Genesis Cabrera a shot in the rotation again, where he hasn't featured heavily since 2022. We also optioned Kyle Dohy to AAA and brought up Jonathan Bowlan again. Into June though and we're sitting pretty at 43-18, 6 games up on the Royals and an astounding 13 games up on the struggling Indians. The team is 1st in runs scored and 1st in runs against, something I'd love to see continue. We also feature the best zone rating and fewest errors, and also have the top base running team. We seem to be doing well. 2025 Draft We're becoming accustomed to picking lower in the draft and this year we have the 26th pick. We select SP Zach Stephens in the first round, RP Mitch Naron in the 2nd, CF Drew Burress in the 3rd, CF Jim O'Connor in the 4th and CF Jerry Turner in the 5th. Second Half We continue rolling into June, but midway through the month we lose Isaac Paredes for two months with a bruised kneecap. He's put up 2.8 WAR and was on pace for 6.3, so that's a tough loss. Luckily we have Jordan Diaz and he's ready to go, so he'll slot in at third base. We bring up Addison Barger. We carry a 63-24 record into July, comfortably sitting in 1st place with a 10 game lead over the Royals. The Indians sit at 43-44 and seem completely out of it, 20 games back of the division. The Red Sox make a trade to acquire Tyler Glasnow to bolster their rotation. The White Sox ship Eloy Jimenez to the Toronto Blue Jays. Joey Gallo gets moved to the Angels for Luis Rengifo. The Diamondbacks ship SP Zac Gallen to the Brewers near the deadline. Gallen extends with the Brewers for 7 years and $134,000,000. We hold firm at the deadline and go into August at 79-36. Near the end of the month we lose RP Jackson Phipps for 8-9 weeks, which is one of the pitchers we can most afford to lose. We call up RP Michael Bienlien. On September 7th, we've officially clinched the division already - but there is still some alarming news in our division. Namely, that both wild card spots have already been clinched in the AL too - by the Kansas City Royals and the, you guessed it, Cleveland Indians. Both teams from my division. In fact, the team that was 43-44 and looked toast? They are finishing the season with a 97-65 record. An astounding turnaround. We should feel more comfortable heading into the playoffs, but I do not.
Playoffs
We're able to stay at home and watch the Wild Card, which, of course, goes as we feared it would. The Indians defeat the Royals 10-3. They're coming. That means that while the Rangers and Red Sox battle, we get to face the second best team in the AL for our first matchup. The team that sent us home last year and is the back-to-back defending champion. Division Series Here they are. The damn Indians. It's mostly the same scary core. Francisco Lindor - Jose Ramirez - Aristides Aquino - Triston Casas - the deadly middle of the order. Only now they've added Nolan Jones and Jake Bauers to the end of that, who both hit 40 homeruns. They led the league in homeruns as a team and were 2nd only to us in runs scored. How about runs against? They were 2nd only to us. This is powerhouse versus powerhouse. Game 1 - Indians def. Tigers, 3-0 Of course, we lose at home - to Shane Beiber, who we beat every time during the regular season. He shut us down here. We can't have this, not like this. Game 2 - Tigers def. Indians, 11-2 Alright, this is what we need out of the league's best offense. Riley Greene drove in three runs in the first and we never looked back - I love jumping on their starter early. We saw four bullpen arms, so let's hope that helps us as we go. Game 3 - Indians def. Tigers, 2-1 I mean.. this hurts. Rocker throws a gem and they get a run on Levi Kelly to win it. They threw a bullpen game against us and still won, due to Espino getting hurt. I cannot believe they silenced our bats with a full bullpen outing in back to back games. Now we are on the ropes and we should be the favorites. Game 4 - Tigers def. Indians, 3-0 Luke. Weaver. Offseason acquisition that I had hoped was better for us than he was in Coors. Well, he earned some of his paycheck in this one, going eight innings and only allowing 3 hits. No runs. What a performance. He helped us force a game 5, where it will all come down to Casey Mize versus Shane Beiber. Game 5 - Tigers def. Indians, 2-1 Huge sigh of relief! They scored in the first, and Riley Greene blasted a two-run shot in the bottom half of the inning to get us the lead. Thankfully, we never gave up that lead despite our offense being silenced. Mize and Beiber both went 7 innings and gave up 5 hits each. They both struck out 7. Our bullpen, de Geus and Kelly, shut it down. They didn't allow a hit. We survived. Barely. It should be easier from here on, but nothing is ever easy in the playoffs. But, for the first time under my leadership, we're heading to the League Championship Series! Willi Castro was named series MVP. League Championship Series We matchup with the Boston Red Sox who were middle of the pack in the AL, but won the AL East. They're led by Rafael Devers and Didi Gregorius on offense, with Andrew Heaney and Tyler Glasnow in the rotation. They're without Blake Snell, Tyler Mahle, Darwinzon Hernandez and Victor Arano, all pitchers. Game 1 - Tigers def. Red Sox, 5-3 Willi Castro and Riley Greene provide the run support and Manning gives us enough of a performance to hold onto our lead. The bullpen shuts it down, allowing only one hit. This is a nice win in the first game. The Red Sox starter, Tanner Houck , was injured. Game 2 - Tigers def. Red Sox, 4-1 Rocker was awesome, going six innings and giving up one run. He might be who I count on the most nowadays. It's him or Mize for sure. White and Castro added homeruns to help us out on offense. Our bullpen is once again lights out. Starting 2-0 is much nicer in this series. Game 3 - Red Sox def. Tigers, 6-2 Weaver just got left out there too long, giving up some early runs and then he gets beat up later in the game. We should've gone to the pen sooner. We also should've scored more runs, but Heaney shackled us a bit. We're okay, we'll bounce back. Game 4 - Tigers def. Red Sox, 9-5 We had our ace on the bump. They had Glasnow. There were 32 hits in this game. We had to go the pen early, after four and a third, but our bullpen is pretty fresh. In fact, they don't give up a run over the rest of the game. Boston gets five innings out of Glasnow, but they had some bumps in the pen, including when, after going into the 11th inning tied, we managed the four runs that would win us the game. Isaac Paredes had 6 hits, which sets an AL playoff extra-inning game record. Mountcastle tied the record with 5 strikeouts and Castro tied the record for doubles, with 3. We are one game away from the World Series! Game 5 - Red Sox def. Tigers, 4-0 We had 9 hits to their 6. We just couldn't string them together. Tanner Houck threw a complete game, saving their bullpen, and shutting us down. Matt Manning gave up the four that cost us the game, which we could afford to lose. We have Rocker on the mound next game and I'd like to close it out there and not go to Game 7. Game 6 - Tigers def. Red Sox, 4-3 Extra innings baby! We're going to the World Series! Rocker was great, as was Ward for the Red Sox. Our bullpen was decent, but it was Noah Syndergaard out of the pen for the Red Sox who gives up the final RBI to Willi Castro in the 10th. Yet, before that even happened - we trailed 3-0 heading into the bottom of the 9th. Castro walked and Chentouf doubled. Greene flew out and then an Evan White homerun tied the game to even give us the chance. What a game. What a series win. Willi Castro was Series MVP. World Series The San Diego Padres eliminated the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series. The Padres are great, maybe the best team in baseball. Our 108 wins and their 112 are the best offerings from each league. These are the teams that should be here. It feels right, even if I'm still surprised at our performance this year. The Padres finished 1st or 2nd in all hitting categories in the NL. They had the NL's best pitching staff. We share these accolades in the AL. It's an absolute showdown. They are led by C.J. Abrams and Fernando Tatis Jr. on offense. We are led by Willi Castro, Evan White and Yaya Chentouf. Our pitching staff is anchored by Mize, Rocker and Manning, while theirs is headlined by the even better Mackenzie Gore and Luis Patino. Gore featured a ridiculous 1.49 ERA this season. The next best mark in the league was a 2.62. Rocker's 2.87 led the AL. Gore is insane. He's scheduled for Games 3 and 7, while Patino is ready for Games 1 and 5. Our star power is more balanced, but theirs is higher. It's juggernaut versus juggernaut. It's the World Series! Game 1 - Tigers def. Padres, 5-0 What a start we have here, with Mize throwing a gem - giving up just four hits and no runs over 8 innings. Genesis Cabrera closed down the 9th for us. Patino was nearly as good, going six innings and only allowing one run on two hits - a solo homerun by Jordan Diaz in the 1st inning. We didn't know that would be enough at the time, but the offense added four more runs against the San Diego bullpen, highlighted by Chentouf's two-run dinger. We needed this win against Patino and Mize delivered. We have Manning versus Gore in game two, as both were moved up in the order due to getting enough rest, it should be a tough one for our offense. Game 2 - Padres def. Tigers, 2-0 Well, I knew it'd be tough - I was hopeful we'd get on the board, but we could only manage three hits. Gore went the distance, complete game shutout, striking out six and walking none. He's just too good. Manning only surrendered two, but that was enough. De Geus and Kelly were solid out of the pen. The extra day of rest means that Rocker is available for Game 3, which is good news for us. Game 3 - Padres def. Tigers, 7-1 Well, shit. We only managed one run, which was unearned, but the Padres got ahold of Rocker in the 6th, chasing him and then putting up three more runs on Zack Hess. We really needed this one, Rocker gave us the advantage and we just didn't have it on either side here. We've got Luke Weaver facing off with Dylan Cease next. Game 4 - Padres def. Tigers, 10-5 Weaver was decent, enough to keep us in it, but Levi Kelly got blasted for five runs. He's been good all year and in the postseason, so it hurts, but it happens. We put up five runs and couldn't get a win, the type of game we've won all year by relying on our bullpen. This one hurts - we're definitely on the ropes now and are win or go home the rest of the way. It's an uphill climb. Game 5 - Padres def. Tigers, 4-3 What can you do? Mize was decent, Patino was decent and we went into extras. We just gave up a run and then couldn't get one as an answer. We fought, taking it into the 11th, and came up short. Our best versus their best, they just came out on top. Fernando Tatis Jr. was named World Series MVP. Full Playoffs Detroit Achievements
RP Levi Kelly wins Rookie of the Month for April.
SP/RP Genesis Cabrera, SP Casey Mize, RP Levi Kelly, RP Brett de Geus, 2B Willi Castro, LF Evan White and RF Yaya Chentouf are named to the All-Star game.
SP Justin Powell, C Dale Burton and RF Ronnie Ruth are named to the All-Star Prospects game.
RP Levi Kelly wins Rookie of the Month for June.
SP Kumar Rocker wins Pitcher of the Month for June.
SP Casey Mize wins Pitcher of the Month for July.
SP Kumar Rocker led the AL in ERA, K/9 and H/9.
RF Yaya Chentouf led the AL in RBI.
2B Willi Castro led the AL in OBP.
SP Casey Mize led the AL in Wins.
RP Brett de Geus led the AL in Games and Holds.
Season Recap
We finally won the division. We were the best team in the American League. We made it out of the Division Series and all the way into the World Series. We ran into a buzzsaw. It happens. We were the 2nd best team in the entire league and we came in 2nd place to the best team in the league. I suppose you can't be too mad at that. It's frustrating for sure, but it's baseball - we'll find a way to get back.
Hitters
Starting Lineup 3B Isaac Paredes Paredes gave us 3.6 WAR, nearly matching his 4 WAR season from the year prior. Which, seems pretty good. When you factor in that he missed two months with injury and only played 92 games, it's pretty incredible. He was having an even better year and while his arbitration number will go up, I think he's probably good to stay around until he doesn't have arbitration years left. His personality traits aren't great, but he's only 26.5 and still playing solid. CF Kyle Isbel I give up on Isbel. Three seasons I've thought his ratings would make up for what I was seeing on the field. Well, now the ratings have slipped a bit, probably to a more accurate level - he just doesn't hit as well as I'd hoped, nothing like how he raked in the minors. I'll try to move him this offseason or non-tender him. My owner wants me to upgrade in center field and I want to also. 2B Willi Castro What more can I ask of Willi? He has literally gotten better every season that he's played for me. He's signed for the next five seasons and that might come back to bite me, but he's been the franchise's key piece ever since I took over and is crucial to our success. He gave us 8.4 WAR this season, right after a 7.4 WAR campaign last year. His bat was awesome this year and he played solid defense again, though I don't think he'll repeat as gold glove at second. RF Yaya Chentouf This will be a bit of a trend this season, but, Yaya improved on an already impressive year last year, bumping his WAR by 1 to 6.4 this year. His bat was almost exactly as effective and he improved in the field. He's one of my favorite finds for this team and though he's gotten off to a start at an older age, he's still on a minimum and could be around for a long time if the power holds on. DH Riley Greene Greene was a much better DH than Isbel was last year and isn't in need of replacement (like Isbel). He's also a more than capable fielder, playing 50+ games in left this year. His WAR wasn't as high as last year, but he was also in the field all of last year, so I'm not too surprised. He's young and has a cheap contract, while also playing well. No complaints here. 1B Ryan Mountcastle Remember that trend? Mountcastle had his best year yet! Nearly 5 WAR as a 1B is a pretty sweet deal. The bat was on fire this year and wasn't even that far off of his average BABIP, so it could be sustainable. He's gonna get a sizable contract bump in arbitration, but he had a career year, so I can't let him get away just yet. LF Evan White Evan White is back baby! He was helped out by a super high BABIP in the early years, which definitely came down, but damn if I don't love a 6 WAR Evan White. He was great in left and even above average in center field too. He continues to be a cheap and controlled contract, so he'll definitely be back. SS Ke'Bryan Hayes The trend! Hayes had his best year yet, finally getting some BABIP luck. Finally an above average hitter, he was also a much better fielder in his 2nd full year at shortstop. In fact, my owner wanted me to upgrade at shortstop... from Hayes. Hayes completed the goal - upgrading from himself. I'd say a 0.6 WAR to 4.1 WAR jump will do that for you. It's nice to have him back. C Christian Vazquez What can you say about Vazquez? He doesn't hit. He doesn't even field that well. But I look at my pitching staff and how I featured the least runs against, best rotation and best bullpen and I can't help but put a lot of the credit on Vazquez. He's got a cheaper team option for next year, which I'll likely be executing to bring him back. The defense hasn't fallen off and that's all he's here for. Bench/Replacements C Drew Romo He was terrible at the plate, great in the field and replaces most of what Vazquez does for the pitching staff. He'll continue to be my backup. 3B Jordan Diaz Diaz was less of a backup and more of a full-time starter - he played in about 20 more games than Paredes due to Isaac's injury. He was good in that time, a league average hitter and fielder at third. If I do decide to move on from Paredes, the drop to Diaz really isn't that bad. He's cheap and controlled for longer. RF Luis Matos Matos was a much better hitter this time around and I trusted his ratings even though he had been bad in AAA last year. He's still young, he's still cheap, but he's a solid outfielder and a good bat. I like having him around. 2B Addison Barger Barger got called up while Paredes was hurt and was serviceable. He's not the world's worst second baseman, but not someone I want out there every day. He's been tearing up AAA though, so he needs a shot somewhere. LF Sammy Siani Sammy was acquired at the beginning of my tenure and has tore it up at every level. He was great in AAA last year and I just didn't have a spot for him, but I brought him up when I had a roster space and he performed decent-ish in a tiny sample size. He needs more playing time, but I'm loaded in the outfield. He's fragile, so maybe I see if he has any value. DH Bryant Packard I got so tired of Isbel that I called up a 2nd DH. Packard was good enough that he might get the nod next year if I don't find something better. He was above average in 44 games, nearly a full WAR and if he can keep that up, he's valuable. He can't play in the field at all though.
Pitchers
Rotation SP Casey Mize Mize was one of the few players who wasn't "better" than the past season, but he was still a dang good pitcher. He gave us 5.4 WAR, led in wins and was one of the AL's best. He has insane contract demands and I don't think there is any way I can meet them, so he'll likely be gone, but should net me a pick. I hate to lose him, but I just can't bring him back. SP Kumar Rocker Rocker makes losing Mize hurt quite a bit less. He's on a minimum and in his sophomore campaign he quietly replicated his incredible rookie campaign, posting a 4.7 WAR and leading the AL in ERA, K/9 and H/9. I mean, yes? That's more than I can ask for. He's likely the team's ace next season. SP Matt Manning The Robin to Mize's Batman, Manning took a third seat this year to Rocker, but could be back in the sidekick role next year. He cranked out a 4.4 WAR season after missing much of last year to injury and while he'll command a high arbitration amount, I don't think I can lose him and Mize in the same offseason. SP Luke Weaver I expected Weaver to be better for us than he was for Colorado and I was right. The FIP came down a bunch and the luck went right with it to give him a 3.1 WAR season for us as a fourth starter. I'm happy with that. He was a rental though and won't be back next year. He might net me a pick. SP Jackson Phipps Phipps wasn't cutting it early on in the rotation, but he transitioned to the pen well. Then he got hurt, so he didn't get to finish out the season, but he gave us 1 WAR in 39 appearances. He was as good for us as he was in Oakland, so I still feel like he'll pan out and should get some more looks next season. Bullpen RP Jorge Alcala Alcala was basically just as good for me as he was for the Athletics, which is what I had hoped for. He was a bit unlucky on BABIP comparatively, jumping 30 points, but he was still a 1.4 WAR pitcher in relief. I'll take it, but I don't know if I want to pay him nearly 4M in arbitration. RP Genesis Cabrera Cabrera has had an interesting road with me. He was pulled up in 2022 and was a 33 game starter, posting a 3 WAR. Then he suddenly just couldn't cut it in the rotation and became a nearly full-time reliever. He wasn't great at that, but I gave him another shot and he performed well last season. He got off to a hot start this year and when Phipps struggled, I gave him another shot. His ERA was unlucky as a starter, but he pitched well all season as evidenced by his 81 FIP- and 4.04 FIP. It was his best season in the majors yet from that standpoint and he gave us 2.5 WAR with 24 starts and 16 relief appearances. The arbitration estimate is cheap and I probably need him to fill a slot in the rotation next year, especially as my only lefty right now. RP Kyle Dohy There is always at least one - a reliever who was solid and suddenly can't cut it anymore. This year, Dohy fits that bill. He was awful and I didn't give him much of a leash either. Then he wasn't good in AAA either. At 29, he may be on his way out. RP Zack Hess Hess was about the most unlucky guy in the league. He had a 6.04 ERA, but his FIP was a 4.00 and his FIP- was an 81. He was good. It just didn't fall right for him. He's cheap and still solid, I bet he bounces back. RP Connor Jones Jones didn't really perform like Alcala did as far as trade returns go. He certainly wasn't bad, in fact he was good - I just had hoped for more I suppose. He's a high movement pitcher who gave up a career high in homeruns. That's concerning. RP Levi Kelly Levi Kelly was pretty unlucky in a brief stint with Arizona last year, but seemed solid to me. Well, he wasn't unlucky for us and was even more dominant. A 2.67 FIP and 54 FIP- tell the tale. 2.9 WAR reinforces it. He was a stellar reliever, one of the league's best - getting an All-Star nod and was a two-time Rookie of the Month. RP Jack Little Jack wasn't that great in 22 appearances and got sent down. He didn't see the field much and is Fragile now. I don't think he's gonna be sticking around. RP Gerson Moreno Moreno was better this year than last, but, he also only saw 11 outings. That was a result of a loaded bullpen that saw him become a specialist only - a role he was good at, but wasn't needed as much. I'm not sure if that's worth keeping around or not, but he's a solid reliever nonetheless. RP Brett de Geus Brett gave us 2.2 WAR last year and I said we'd give him more opportunities - that usually goes bad for me. This time it didn't, he answered in kind and gave us 3.0 WAR in 78 appearances. He'll continue getting opportunities. RP Michael Bienlien Michael got called up late due to his AAA performance. He wasn't bad, but it's a small sample size. RP Jonathan Bowlan I should've learned last year. I'm done with Bowlan, I don't care how good he does in AAA. He's gone.
Prospect Watch
SP Justin Powell - Well, it was only R+, but he was solid finally. He's the #1 rated prospect in the MLB right now. He's Fragile. He has low work ethic. I don't know what to do with him. He looks like he should be incredible. Should be. A big if he develops into his ceiling. If he stays healthy. I don't want to flip him because he could be a superstar, but, there are so many red flags. RF Ronnie Ruth - Take a look at how Ronnie progressed this year. If he hits that hitting tool ceiling? Look the heck out. The personality information isn't great, but at least it's not work ethic or intelligence, but the hit tool looks otherworldly. He'll be in A+ for sure. BNN ranks him 11th. SP Zach Stephens - The new draftee performed in A- and will go to A right away. BNN says he's the 87th best prospect. 3B Alex Santa Cruz - An IFA signing in 2023, Cruz was in the DSL this year and played well. He'll jump stateside to a rookie league or perhaps R+, but BNN likes him inside the top 100 and the hit tool and run tool are awesome. Defense leaves a bit to be desired though. SP Doug Wade - Wade didn't pitch that well in A, but he'll go up to AA and we'll see what he has. He looks like he's got some major league pitches already and keeps the ball in the park. SP/RP Rolando Sirit - Rolando was thrown to the wolves in A+ and never stood a chance. I've remedied that issue, but he wasn't there again and instead dominated in AA. He's right on the line between starter and reliever, but he looks pretty solid right now and could feasibly be in the bullpen for the Tigers next year. SP Ryan Hagenow - Ryan had a down year in AA 2 years ago but was solid in AAA this year. Does he deserve a shot at the major league level? Perhaps. Will I need him up? Possibly. I think there is a good chance we take a chance on him for the Tigers in 2026. RF Ismael Mena - Mena was great in AAA after being good in AA too. He's progressed nicely and my scout thinks he's basically a league-average hitter and fielder while being a great baserunner. The trouble is finding a spot for him in the majors, but he might be ready to try. CF Petey Halpin - My 2nd round pick in 2020 has finally made his way to AAA and performed well. He carried a high BABIP, but, he was well above average so that should even out. Again, he's an outfielder and I have a plethora of them right now, so I don't know what to do about that or how to get him in the lineup, but I'd like to somehow. RP Mel Rodrigues - Mel has been starting, but he's really a reliever. He could be a great one. I just wish he'd stop throwing the changeup! He's almost ready right now, but he hasn't thrown above A-. I'll plug him into A+ next year and see how that goes. RP Isaiah Magwood - Magwood looks ready right now according to my scout. He was unlucky in AA, but was solid. He might find his way into the bullpen at the major league level, if not he'll try AAA. OF Mike Gode - Gode continued his good progression and will go to AA. He looks like a solid bat, but he's bad in the field, so that'll be an issue. LF/P Cole Wagner - I know that I should just convert Wagner to a full-time hitter, which he does seem better at, but he keeps pitching well at every level too, so I'll keep him going to AAA. I know he probably won't be a two-way player forever, but the dream is still alive!
Future Outlook
My payroll continues to trend upward. We're going to lose Mize and Weaver. We have some choices to make about some minor league players who look ready but may not have slots open. We went to the World Series on a budget and we still have one of the league's lowest, so we still have to pinch pennies.
(OC) Indianapolis Colts Top 5: Quarterbacks (2021 Update)
Last offseason I delved into who were the top 5 players at each position in Indianapolis (not Baltimore) Colts history. I made a list for each position group which I'll add as links at the end of this article. Each offseason I'll try to update the lists that I feel need to change. As I mentioned last year this list is purely my opinion as a die hard fan since the early Manning days, and if you think I have no clue what I'm talking about, please feel free to let me know. Fun fact, out of the 26 QBs to start a game for the Indy Colts there are only 8 players that have a winning record. Three of them are Colts legends Josh Freeman, Gary Hogeboom, and Craig Erickson.
The Colts had their franchise QB in Andrew Luck, but leading up to the 2017 season it was revealed during the preseason Luck had a shoulder injury which would eventually lead to him missing the entire 2017 season. This left the Colts scrambling as they knew QB Scott Tolzien was not the answer at QB, so 8 days before the start of the season the new GM Chris Ballard traded 1st round bust Phillip Dorsett for 3rd string QB for the Patriots Jacoby Brissett. Brissett had looked at least competent spot starting for the suspended Tom Brady and hurt Jimmy Garoppolo in 2016, so he was the best option the Colts had available so close to the beginning of the season.
Colts Career
Bringing in a new QB for a team 8 days before the start of the season and asking him to play is like asking a train engineer to launch a rocket to the moon, so Tolzien started week 1 for Colts. He continued to not impress going into week 2, and was replaced for Brissett. Brissett was an improvement, but it was clear he was overwhelmed by the change of scenery and the rest of the Colts roster and staff was not talented enough to make up for it. He finished with competent numbers: 3,098 yards, 13 TDs, 7 INTs, 58.8% completion rate, 6.6 Y/A, but was merely a game manager for a bad team as the Colts finished 4-12. Andrew Luck was ready to return in 2018 and the Colts were willing to give Brissett the benefit of the doubt and kept him on as the backup. The Colts saw a major resurgence with Luck and an incredible draft and free agent class by Chris Ballard, leading to their first playoff appearance since 2015, eventually losing to the Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs. The Colts were looking to improve going into 2019, but a now too familiar announcement led up to the season when it was revealed a calf injury was going to cause Andrew Luck to retire 2 weeks before the start of the regular season. The spotlight was once again shown on Jacoby Brissett, who was asked to take over Luck's team. Fortunately this time Brissett was able to get all the first team reps in the preseason leading up to week 1 and was much more familiar with the system. That familiarity paid off as Brissett led the Colts to a 5-2 start, including wins over playoff teams like the Texans and Titans along with the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Brissett was not putting up All-Pro numbers, but had clearly improved from 2017 and was still not making game losing mistakes. Through week 9 he had 190 YPG, 11 TDs, and 6 INTs, and and the eye test had shown he was a good leader and could occasionally make big plays when needed. However, after a knee sprain in week 10 he was clearly not the same player. His injury either hampered his physical abilities or his confidence but his poor play for the rest of the season allowed the Colts to fall to 7-9, including an embarrassing 34-7 loss to the Saints that I made the trip over to New Orleans for and watched as Brissett sailed the ball over every receiver's head. Brissett was the backup to Philip Rivers in 2020, occasionally coming in for QB draw plays, and while he is still beloved in the locker room, he will likely be moving on via free agency to a team that wants to give him more opportunities to play. The consensus among Colts fans though is that we would love to keep him around not only because he's a solid backup, but because of his leadership and cultural impact.
I believe I'm with the majority of Colts fans in that when I see Jacoby Brissett I see somewhat of a tragic figure. He got thrown to the wolves in 2017 and did the best he could, but was basically set up to fail. It's honestly not too much of a stretch to say his play through week 9 of 2019 was the best QB play by an Indy Colts QB not named Manning, Luck, or Harbaugh. You could tell he was well-liked by both fans and teammates, especially through the first half of 2019, but his limitations as a player were clear. Colts fans have been spoiled in the 21st century by 2 all-time great QBs, so any deviation from that, especially when it's not by a QB we drafted #1 overall, will be seen as a major failure. I think people came down a little too hard on Jacoby by the end of 2019, and that he's still a solid pro capable of being the QB on a winning team in the right situation. However, he showed in the 2nd half of 2019 that situation is probably not in Indy going forward. He is still beloved in the locker room and by fans as of 2020, as he was the Colts' Man of the Year award nominee.
The Colts were still searching for answers at the QB position after the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck and the uneven play of Jacoby Brissett in the 2019 season. The Colts roster was too solid to tank for a high pick, so they likely needed to search for a QB either via trade or free agency. After 16 years with the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers, multiple Pro Bowls, multiple playoff runs, and 224 straight starts, Philip Rivers had a down year with the Chargers going 5-11, so they decided to let him go. Rivers thought he still had something left in the tank, so he went with the relatively known option of hooking up with his former OC (Frank Reich) and QB Coach (Nick Sirianni) in Indy in a tumultuous offseason for a pretty solid $25 million, 1-year deal.
Colts Career
Rivers got off to a rocky start in 2020, going 3-2 with 4 TDs and 5 INTs. Many fans were worried we were getting the washed up looking 2019 Phil Rivers and were stuck in another year of mediocracy. Fortunately by leading a furious comeback against Cincinnati in Week 6, Rivers finally started to click with the offense. Bolstered by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, Rivers looked a lot more like the 2018 Pro Bowler than the 2019 player nearly out of the league. Unfortunately, in the 2020 signature win against the Green Bay Packers, Rivers sustained a toe injury that would remove whatever small amount of mobility he had left. However, if there's one thing Philip Rivers doesn't do, it's miss football games. That dude is a nearly literal iron man, and continued his NFL starting streak of 240 games (Tied for 3rd best all-time) for all 16 games of the 2020 season. Rivers provided a steady hand and worked well within the offense to help guide the Colts to the playoffs via a 2020 playoff first, a #7 Wild Card spot. Rivers and the Colts played well against a white hot Buffalo Bills team, but it wasn't enough to overcome what turned out to be a legit Super Bowl contender. Rivers, content with his pile of accolades and children, decided to retire from the NFL (with the potential rehab from his toe injury likely playing a large role in that decision).
Many people were skeptical of paying a seemingly washed-up QB that much money, even if it was a one-year deal. However, Colts fans all needed to remember to trust the binder™. Slightly older Colts fans may not have liked Rivers much for his constant antagonism and knocking the Colts out of the playoffs in the 2007 and 2008 seasons, but we quickly learned to love his quirky nature once he was on our team. Philip Rivers on the Colts will likely be a fun trivia question as the years go by, as Rivers will always be remembered as a Charger first, but Philip Rivers' Colts year was a great swan song for a Hall of Fame level career.
The Colts had come out of the Eric Dickerson/Jeff George era looking like an absolute dumpster fire. The Colts had been in Indy for 10 years and Indy was still very much a basketball town. The only signature player the Indy Colts had was Eric Dickerson, and he had a very sour exit in 1992 after 2 bad years. The Indianapolis Colts were still in the woods, searching for the player that could give their franchise hope that they would be treated as a legitimate threat in the NFL and generate significant interest from the fanbase. That hope came from an unlikely source in Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh had led the Chicago Bears to 2 playoff appearances in the late Mike Ditka-era, but his play had fallen off and by 1994 he looked somewhat washed. The desperate Colts made a surprisingly wise decision in not drafting QBs Heath Schuler or Trent Dilfer. Instead they drafted future Hall of Fame RB Marshall Faulk to replace Eric Dickerson (this is the "Who the hell is Mel Kiper?" draft) and signing Jim Harbaugh.
Colts Career
Harbaugh didn't come out guns blazing in 1994 as he traded starting duties with Green Bay castoff Don Majkowski. Harbaugh put up decent numbers but the Colts finished 4-5 in games Harbaugh started, 8-8 overall. Harbaugh entered the 1995 season as no sure thing, the Colts actually traded their 1996 first round pick for young Tampa QB Craig Erickson in another baffling trade for an unproven QB. Erickson and Harbaugh competed for the starting position in training camp and Erickson was selected as the starter by head coach Ted Marchibroda. Erickson played poorly the first 2 weeks, being replaced and outplayed by Harbaugh in both games. By week 3 Harbaugh was the full time starter and didn't look back. Harbaugh was showing that he meshed well with new Offensive Coordinator Lindy Infante as Harbaugh put up some of the most efficient passing numbers of any QB in the NFL in 1995: 2,575 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs, 63.7% completion rate, and a league leading passer rating of 100.7 (ahead of guys like Brett Favre, Troy Aikman, Steve Young, and Dan Marino). Even more importantly he was a becoming the tough effective leader to energize the entire team, leading the Colts to 4 game winning drives that season, including one over the 1994 Super Bowl champion 49ers. The Colts were just outside of the playoffs going into week 17, but Harbaugh led the Colts to a win over the Drew Bledsoe led Patriots in the RCA Dome to sneak the Colts into the playoffs at 9-7. Harbaugh earned his first Pro Bowl appearance along with NFL Comeback Player of the Year. The Colts were going into the playoffs as 5.5 point underdogs against the San Diego Chargers, a team they had just lost to in week 16. However, thanks to 3 TDs from Harbaugh and an out-of-nowhere 147 yard, 2 TD performance from rookie FB Zach Crockett, the Colts overcame the odds. They were heading into a gauntlet of Arrowhead stadium against the best defense in the league and a Marcus Allen led 13-3 Kansas City Chiefs. In an ugly game where the wind chill was -15oF, luck worked in the Colts favor. Harbaugh didn't throw well, but picked up several key 1st down with his legs. He had 1 INT and 3 fumbles, but fortunately lost 0. Chiefs QB Steve Bono had 3 INTs and K Lin Elliot went 0/3 on field goals in a season where he made 80%. Colts K Cary Blanchard made 1/3, and that was enough to upset the heavily-favored Chiefs 10-7. Harbaugh's most defining moment as the Colts QB would come in the AFC Championship against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Harbaugh's cinderella story continued on against Bill Cowher and Neil O'Donnell's Steelers. The Colts and Steelers traded scores throughout the game. With 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter, Harbaugh threw a dime to WR Floyd Turner for a 47 yard touchdown to put the Colts up 16-13. Unfortunately the Colts couldn't run out enough clock on their next drive and the Steelers rushed down the field for the go-ahead score to put them up 20-16. Harbaugh wasn't done yet. With 88 seconds needing 84 yards, Harbaugh willed the Colts down the field to the Steelers' 29-yard line for a hail mary shot with 5 seconds left. Harbaugh tossed up a prayer that was very nearly caught by Colts WR Aaron Bailey, but he couldn't come up with it. The Cinderella story was over, but it was a defining moment for the Colts franchise. The 1995 Colts were within a hair of making the Super Bowl, and that 1995 playoff run led by Harbaugh created a real fanbase for them. Harbaugh's stats regressed some in 1996, but he still led the Colts to a 9-7 record and the playoffs, this time getting whooped by the Steelers in the wild card. In 1997 his stats improved some but the wheels fell off of the team as they started off 0-10, eventually falling to 3-13. Fortunately their record would net them the #1 pick in the 1998 draft. After it was clear the Colts were using the pick on QB they traded Harbaugh to the Ravens.
“A lot of people use (the word) ‘culture,’ but the attitude, everybody was team-first, from the front office, together with the coaches, together with the ownership, together with the players, the equipment staff, the training staff, I mean it felt like we were family.” - Jim Harbaugh on 1995 I don't think enough can be said about the effect of Harbaugh and that 1995 team had on the Colts. He gave us our first source of pride in the Colts and set the tone for the franchise to not be the laughingstock of the league. He paved the way for the decades of excellence that came after. Harbaugh will never be a HoF QB, but his effect on the Colts is severely underrated. For more details on the 1995 Cinderella season, read this IndyStar article: https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2016/01/21/1995-indianapolis-colts-jim-harbaugh-aaron-bailey-afc-championship-game-ted-marchibroda/78291676/
After a serious neck injury to franchise stalwart Peyton Manning, the Colts went from perennial playoff contender to nearly winless in 2011. It was unknown if Manning would ever be the same QB again, so the Colts opted to release their most valuable player and use their #1 pick in 2012 on a QB. There was some debate on possibly drafting the Heisman winner out of Baylor, Robert Griffin III, but new GM Ryan Grigson made no doubt in the fact that he was drafting Andrew Luck. Son of former Oilers QB Oliver Luck, Andrew Luck blossomed under head coach Jim Harbaugh to revitalize the Stanford football program while also graduating with a bachelor's degree in architectural design. Luck was hailed by nearly every scout as a can't miss prospect, having nearly every physical tool you want from a QB along with a clear handle on the mental and intangible aspects of the game.
Colts Career
Expectations for Luck were high going into 2012, but not so for the team overall. Many experts put the Colts at or near the bottom of all power rankings. Not only had the team lost Peyton Manning that year, but also many key pieces from the Manning era such as Pierre Garçon, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, and Gary Brackett. To make matters worse, new head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia and missed weeks 5-16. However, despite all odds, Luck led the Colts to an 11-5 record. Interim Head Coach Bruce Arians proved to be a diamond in the rough by helping Luck turn a 2-14 team that lost multiple starters into a playoff team. Luck's stats weren't always pretty: 23 TDs, 18 INTs, 54.1% completion rate, and a 76.5 rating, but he could clearly make plays happen with an absurd 7 game winning drives. The miracles came to an end with a shellacking by the eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs, but this season proved Luck would be no bust, he was a force to be reckoned with. Luck continued to grow in 2013 and 2014, improving in every category to crescendo in 2014 with a league-leading 40 TDs, 16 INTs, 61.7% completion rate, and a 96.5 rating. In 2013 he led the Colts to his first playoff victory in spectacular fashion. After being down 38-10 early in the 3rd quarter to the Alex Smith led Chiefs, Luck led a furious and unbelievable comeback 45-44 victory. Any Colts fan could tell you after seeing all the comeback victories Luck had led to never count him out, and he cemented that in this game. In 2014 Luck led the Colts past their old god of Peyton Manning in Denver in the divisional round, but were given a thorough ass-whooping in the AFC Championship by the soon-to-be Super Bowl champions New England Patriots in what is now infamously known as the "Deflategate Game." Andrew Luck was a very physical player and was known to take many hits, sometimes making spectacular plays through those hits. However, that punishment started to pile up and wasn't helped by GM Ryan Grigson's poor draft classes and inability to build a competent offensive line to block for Luck. This culminated in the injury plagued 2015 and 2016 seasons. Luck only played 7 games in 2015 and severely regressed in every statistical category, clearly hampered by various injuries such as a lacerated kidney. Luck's stats improved in 2016, but the team did not as they finished 8-8, partially due to an astounding 7% sack of Luck. Either some of Luck's good fortune had finally run out or the team and culture built by GM Grigson had completely failed to support their superstar QB. Owner Jim Irsay bet on Luck and fired Grigson after 2016. Hopes were high heading into 2017, but unfortunately an unknown snowboarding accident aggravated a previous shoulder injury for Luck. News was very slow to come out, but fans were shocked to find out he would likely miss the entire season 8 days before week 1. New GM Chris Ballard made a quick trade for Jacoby Brissett, but fans were worried after 3 years of being hampered by injuries Luck may never be the same player. In 2018 we believed those doubts were proven wrong. Luck had an incredibly resurgent season, leading the new look Colts back into the playoffs for the first time since 2014 with a 10-6 record. Luck's numbers were back to form: 39 TDs, 15 INTs, and career bests of 67.3% completion rate and 98.7 rating. Fans were pleased to finally see Luck playing behind a solid offensive line that prevented which prevented him from being sacked for 5 weeks and giving him a career low 2.7% sack rate. Luck led the Colts to a Wild Card win over the Deshaun Watson's Texans, but were stopped in the cold in Arrowhead against Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs. However, hopes were high leading into 2019 that the structure given by GM Chris Ballard would protect Luck and allow him to lead us to our Super Bowl. Sadly that did not work out as Luck appeared to have a calf injury leading up to the 2019 season. Fans held out hope he would be ready to go for the start of the season, but after the years of rehabbing Luck had finally had enough. 2 weeks before the season opener during a preseason game against the Chicago Bears it was leaked that Luck planned to retire. Fortunately his backup Jacoby Brissett was put in a better position to take his place as opposed to 2017, but the sudden and unexplained retirement of their franchise QB right before the season led to some fans to boo Luck as he left the field at Lucas Oil Stadium for the last time.
Andrew Luck will forever be one of the greatest "what if?" stories in American sports history. Unlike many "what if?" stories, we got to see what we could have had with Luck. What the Colts had in Luck from 2012-14 along with 2018 was nothing short of incredible and it was clear he was improving to potentially become one of the greatest QBs in NFL history. Instead he's a tragic story where fans will forever be left to wonder what could have been with Andrew Luck. Would Luck have brought the Colts back to the Super Bowl if he he didn't play the majority of his career under the poor management of GM Ryan Grigson and HC Chuck Pagano? All we do know is that his sack rate under Grigson was 5.5%, and in one year on GM Chris Ballard's team it was 2.7%, coincidentally also one of his best statistical seasons. Peyton Manning's sack rate for his career? Tied for the NFL record with Dan Marino at 3.13%. Maybe if Luck had been better protected and coached better to avoid hits he could have made it up there with Manning, but as fans he'll forever be a "what if?" Luck seems like a smart and content man who's just starting a family, so I doubt he will ever return for any team. Even if he did we'll forever be robbed of what the best version of Andrew Luck could have been. However, in his short time here, he delivered enough incredible moments to give us hope and make us love the team. I, along with hopefully many other fans, will forever love Andrew Luck for his time with the Colts and am grateful for a helluva run.
The Indianapolis Colts under Jim Harbaugh had finally established themselves as a legitimate team, but the Colts knew Harbaugh wasn't the long-term answer at QB. He was 35 going into the 1998 season and had just led the Colts to a 3-13 season, bad enough for the #1 overall pick. There was some debate about drafting Heisman finalist out of Washington, Ryan Leaf, but new GM Bill Polian made no doubt in the fact that he was drafting Peyton Manning. Leaf had some incredible athletic abilities, but there were some doubts raised about his ability to handle the mental aspects of the game. He also basically made the decision for the Colts when he skipped their draft interview, a passive-aggressive declaration he wouldn't play for the Colts. Peyton Manning, son of former Saints QB Archie Manning, was also a Heisman finalist out of Tennessee. No scout doubted Manning's ability to become a franchise QB in the NFL, but some wondered about his potential ceiling due to a complete lack of running ability and some arm strength concerns. However, he was clearly one of the most mature and mentally ready players to ever come out of college for any position. "I'll leave you with this thought. If you take me, I promise you we will win a championship. If you don't, I promise I'll come back and kick your ass" -Peyton Manning to Colts GM Bill Polian on the day before the 1998 draft
Colts Career
The 1998 Colts were still a pretty bad team overall, and the rookie Manning was not enough to overcome that. He had one of the best statistical rookie seasons ever: 3,739 yards, 26 TDs, 28 INTs, 6.5 Y/A, and a 56.7% completion rate, setting records for yards, TDs, and INTs (yards and TDs are currently held by Andrew Luck and Baker Mayfield respectively). However, the deficiencies of the team and Manning's record number of interceptions helped give the Colts a 3-13 record, including a week 5 win over Ryan Leaf's San Diego Chargers. Fortunately Manning helped lead one of the biggest turnarounds in NFL history in 1999, turning the 3-13 Colts in 1998 into the 13-3 Colts in 1999. People weren't exactly ready to give up on Manning after 1998, but 1999 was critical for showing Manning could improve and be at the helm of a winning team. Partially this was helped by sending Hall of Fame RB Marshall Faulk to St. Louis in exchange for the draft pick to select Hall of Fame RB Edgerrin James, who had a phenomenal rookie year. The Colts ended up losing to the Tennessee Titans in the playoffs, who had just completed the Music City Miracle the week before and would come within an ass hair of winning the Super Bowl against the Greatest Show on Turf St. Louis Rams. Manning was up and down from 2000 to 2002, still posting good stats but missing the playoffs in 2001 ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-oSFYxDGKy8 ) and having first round exits in 2000 and 2002. Whispers started turning into legitimate arguments about how Peyton Manning was a good stats, dome team, regular season QB that just didn't have it in the playoffs. In 2003 Manning started his absurd streak of 12+ win seasons (7 years) and picked up his first MVP award, the first (and still only) Indy Colt to win it. He also got his first playoff wins in 2003, but was quickly put to shame in a 4 INT performance in the AFC Championship against the Patriots, now known by Colts fans as "The Ty Law Game." The 2004 season is well known by Colts fans for cementing Manning among the all time greats. Manning was white hot all year, throwing for 4,557 yards 49 TDs, 10 INTs, and a 121.1 rating while only getting sacked 13 times. The 49 TDs was a record, which has since been broken by Tom Brady and Manning again while a member of the Broncos. Manning won MVP for the 2nd year in a row, but once again disappointed in the playoffs with a 0 TD, 1 INT performance against the Patriots in the divisional round, losing 20-3. Those arguments of Manning's postseason jitters were starting to feel more and more like reality for Colts fans. They knew they had their franchise QB, but his inability to perform in the playoffs continued to be baffling. 2005 was supposed to be the season that changed all that. Manning's numbers came back to earth somewhat, but he still posted a very efficient performance (104.1 rating) for a much improved overall team. GM Bill Polian had proved his days building the "Four Falls over Buffalo" Bills dynasty was no fluke, he now had a team with the #2 scoring offense and the #2 scoring defense. This was the year to break the Manning postseason curse. Unfortunately in one of the most upsetting games of my life, the Colts could not break that curse against the Steelers in the divisional round. Manning played relatively well: 58% completion rate, 290 yards, and 1 TD with no INTs, but watching the game the Colts struggled to maintain momentum and get stops against the rookie Ben Roethlisberger. Despite the inconsistent play, the Colts still had a shot. Steelers HoF RB Jerome Bettis attempted to ice the game with a goal line carry, but fumbled for the first time all year. With the entire Steelers offense stuffing the line, Colts CB Nick Harper was free to pick up the ball with a nearly open field ahead of him. Normally Nick Harper is one of the faster players on the field, however, as every Colts fan knows, Harper had been stabbed in the leg by his wife in a "supposedly accidental" altercation the night before. This possibly allowed the falling down Ben Roethlisberger to catch Harper by his shoe strings, preventing the nearly sure thing TD by Harper to put the Colts ahead. Instead Manning led the Colts into basically chip shot field goal position for one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history (Mike "Idiot Kicker" Vanderjagt) to tie the game. We all know what happened next. It was a shocking loss to say the least, and it was hard to blame it all on Manning, but it still felt like there was some sort of mystical VooDoo curse hanging over Manning and our franchise. If the Colts couldn't win it all in 2005 it felt like they never would. 2006 wasn't looking like anything special compared to the past few seasons, especially considering the defense regressed from #2 in scoring in 2005 to #23 in 2006. Manning was still putting up great numbers, but those were starting to feel like an exercise in futility. Fortunately the Colts caught fire at the right time, with oft-injured All-Pro Safety Bob Sanders getting healthy towards the end of the season and the trade deadline addition of Buccaneers DT "Booger" McFarland. That momentum pushed them to an AFC Championship, where Manning would match up against the source of his ultimate playoff failures, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Fortunately, this time it was in the RCA Dome, not Foxborogh, MA. Manning and the Colts started off cold, being down 21-3 at one point after a Manning pick-6, but the Colts rallied behind some incredibly orchestrated drives by Manning to finally get the monkey off his back. On a last second drive, Manning drove the Colts down the field to put them ahead 38-34 with 1 minute to go. A Marlin Jackson interception of Tom Brady sealed it, Manning and the Colts were going to the Super Bowl for the first time in Indy history. Manning played well in the Super Bowl, winning the MVP against the league-best Chicago Bears defense. Manning continued his solid play in 2007 and 2008, including his 3rd MVP in 2008. Both seasons ended with heartbreaking first round playoff exits to the San Diego Chargers, 2008's being the "Sproles and Scifres Game." 2008 also showed the first signs of physical weakness from Manning, having a knee surgery before the season that led to a slow start for the Colts. That was not the case in 2009, as Manning led the Colts to start the season 14-0. In a decision that's still derided today, new head coach Jim Caldwell decided to effectively bench Manning along with many other starters rather than go for the perfect season to prevent any injuries. Many had seen the Patriots in 2007 nearly complete the perfect season, but fall in heartbreaking fashion in the Super Bowl against a less talented Giants team. Caldwell, like many others, decided that any rust from not playing for nearly a month was worth the decreased risk of injury to his stars. That decision nearly backfired in spectacular fashion as the Colts were behind the New York Jets (a team they effectively let into the playoffs by letting them win in week 16) in the AFC Championship game until Manning led a furious comeback. It all ended poorly in the Super Bowl however as Manning threw a pick-6 to Tracy Porter that still haunts my dreams to Tracy Porter, allowing the Colts to lose to Drew Brees and his stupid baby and the New Orleans Saints. 2010 was one of the first signs of weakness from Manning. He had apparently injured his neck on this play in 2006 ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gjdmww3vgM ) on a hit that would now be extremely illegal. Manning apparently aggravated that injury in the lead up to the 2010 season, and it showed in the stats as he had how lowest rating since 2002 (91.9). For most other QBs a rating of 91.9 is a pretty solid season but for Manning it was a massive fall. This led to a quick playoff exit to the Jets in the first round. In the lead up to the 2011 season, Manning had several surgeries to relieve the pain in his neck which led to him missing the entire season. It was unknown if he would ever be the same QB again, or even play again. Manning's absence showed how incredibly important he was to the franchise, the only major difference between the rosters in 2010 and 2011 is Manning, yet the Colts went 10-6 in 2010 and 2-14 in 2011. This poor record led to the Colts earning the #1 pick in the 2012 draft, which fueled their decision to release Manning and draft a QB in 2012 (Chandler Harnish...and Andrew Luck).
"Fellas, if 18 goes down, we're fucked, and we don't practice fucked." -Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore on why the backup QBs don't get more reps Nothing to me cements Peyton Manning's role in Indy as much as this quote. Even his first 5 years before he became an all-time great, that was still the best sustained stretch of QB play in Indy Colts history. Once he ascended to another level in 2003, it was clear we needed to put every egg we could find into his basket. Manning was the perfect franchise QB: a steady presence on and off the field, consistent delivery of either incredible numbers or game winning performances (usually both), and he made nearly everyone else on the team a better player. His drive and commitment to team victory made him the guy every franchise needs if they want to field a consistently great team. Peyton had somewhat of an authoritarian leadership style, my way or the highway, but you can do that when you show that you're willing and able to give every ounce of yourself to the team and deliver the kind of results that he can. I think some people are disappointed in the Manning Era considering how historically great his stats are but he was 1-1 in Super Bowls in 12 years here. Honestly I think that's not too far off for any all-time QB. Drew Brees is 1-0, Brett Favre is 1-1, Aaron Rodgers is 1-0, Fran Tarkenton is 0-3, Jim Kelly is 0-4, Dan Marino is 0-1, all of these guys are all-time great franchise QBs but it's not abnormal for them to only win 1 or lose several. There are some exceptions: Tom Brady (6-3), Joe Montana (4-0), Terry Bradshaw (4-0), and Troy Aikman (3-0), but honestly you could trade any of the former QBs for Terry Bradshaw and they would also probably be 4-0. There's lots of luck in every playing career, and some get luckier than others. The only season I'd say the Colts were "robbed" of a Super Bowl is 2005, otherwise I think Manning's Colts career went about as good as it could have. 2021 Removal: Formerly #5 Jack Trudeau at best was a game manager who handed the ball off to Dickerson and a competent long-term backup. He's not terrible, but wasn't really much more than a placeholder Honorable Mentions: Matt Hasselbeck (5-3 record, probably our best backup ever) and Dan Orlovsky (just for saving us from a completely defeated season). Dishonorable Mentions: Jeff George and Kerry Collins (being very bad at QB isn't very uncommon for Indy Colts QBs, but these guys were so bad and toxic they dragged down the abilities of everyone on the team and are actively hated by most fans) TL;DR:
Jacoby Brissett - Bad situation, flashes of solid play
Philip Rivers - Parachuted in and gave us one solid season
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