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My Opinion on Technical Analysis, AMA!

TL-DR:
I'm a former retail Day Trader with 15 years experience. I've also worked as a Professional Stockbroker. I believe that technical analysis is a scam promoted by brokers in order to generate trading revenue from retail traders who are unable to afford access to the real news and data that moves stocks. I'll be online for the next 8 hours - AMA.
Edit 24 hours later:
I've literally been inundated with messages asking for my website and I just don't see why I shouldn't provide it. I've made the whole thing free - there are no paywalls. It's at news.broker
Post:
This opinion is unpopular amongst those who are somehow convinced that technical analysis does work. These individuals either rely on the scam in order to generate their income off the fees generated by retail traders OR have invested so much time and effort into learning technical analysis and the ability to quickly identify chart patterns that they unable to admit they might be wrong. I present this opinion after more than 15 years of trading experience both as a self-employed Day Trader and as a Professional Stockbroker. I am now a Financial Journalist and offer this insight in the hope that it convinces some people to wake up and see technical analysis for the fraud it is.
Now before I go on I want to first state that charts, by their definition, offer a visual depiction of historical stock price movement and are therefore very useful when it comes to analysing and researching stocks. Determining an entry and exit point using a stock chart and a few lines here and there is an excellent way of assessing previous levels of support and resistance when done properly and according to the timeframe upon which you wish to hold the stock.
Technical analysis is a good tool when used properly to determine the entry and exit price points of a stock that has already been selected to invest or trade using other forms of analysis.
In my first 2 or 3 years of being a Day Trader, I was convinced technical analysis was some kind of secret mystery that if mastered would lead to generating consistent profits. I figured that the short term trading of stocks was different to longer term investing and that a different approach was required to be successful. This false and incorrect belief was supported in the official literature provided by my broker in the guise of educational resources and I found plenty of guru's online and in person with very compelling arguments as to why I should pay them money to buy their books, courses, home study kits or overseas seminars.
I viewed technical analysis as being a new way of trading stocks. A secret that only a few people 'in the know' knew about and definitely something that could be learned and mastered on its own in order to become a successful trader. Who wouldn't want what I have just written? It sucks people in like a cult - people who just want to learn how to trade which I believe wholeheartedly is a noble and smart endeavour that strikes at the heart of entrepreneurship.
I attended seminars, purchased books, downloaded charting software and even stood up in front of a University presentation being conducted by a well known fund manager in an attempt to argue that his proven value investing philosophy was second to technical analysis. I thought it was the most purest form of generating insight into a stock price because it took it 'already took in all of the factors' - whatever the hell that means.
I would spend hours each night going through the stock chart of every single listed equity trading in the ASX/S&P 200 index (I live in Australia) and would apply various studies in order to determine what to trade the next day. I'd search for elusive breakouts, stocks that were about to hit previous support or resistance levels. The fundamentals didn't bother me because as far as I was concerned, technical analysis already included that and by the time a retail trader gets word of the news about a stock, it has already moved (there is unfortunately an element of truth in that - read on). I didn't really consider the fact that for a chart pattern to develop, the price must have also already moved somewhat.
My false belief as I touched on earlier was supported by my broker and again at the seminars my broker sent me to. In my opinion this was solid information/education because the people telling me were market professionals and much more experienced and educated than I was. I didn't consider that my broker only generates money when I generate fees from executing trades - it never entered my mind that this information could be a load of BS.
Thankfully, I had (and still have) a genuine and almost obsessive passion for business and the financial markets. I love reading company annual reports and conducting research and so in between looking at chart patterns and colouring in lines I would also look at the fundamentals of the business out of pure curiosity. As part of this process, I would pick up on certain things that would get me bullish or bearish about a stock - a product launch, a law suit or an industry forecast for example. As I gained experience trading I would slowly place more and more emphasis on the fundamentals until one day I saw the light.
A stock moves either up, down or sideways. Generally up or down - therefore, any type of analysis is going to be correct roughly 50% of the time. I would view all my profitable trades as solid examples of correctly applying technical analysis and I would view all loosing trades as being mistakes. For me, tefhncial analysis was perfect and when it didn't work it was because I hadn't properly applied it.
After about 2 or 3 years of trading using technical analysis exclusively, I began incorporating more and more fundamental analysis and kind of broke even most of the time. I worked as a Security Guard part-time to fund my life, but my full-time job and career was trading. I say this because for the first few years I really didn't make any serious profits, though I didn't lose much either so I kept persisting.
In my 4th or 5th year of trading I did well as I incorporated more fundamental analysis and less technical analysis but during the GFC in 2008 lost a fair bit of money. I returned to doing security work but still kept trading. Then I came into quite a bit of cash, quit my job and became a 'full-time trader' where I subsequently lost around $80,000 in one year.
I was devastated and about to quit everything and go back to being a security guard when I received a telephone call from Bloomberg one day offering me a free trial of their Professional terminal. I had no idea the cost and didn't ask. The operator figured I was loaded since I had spent $80k on the market in a short period of time and had set-up a Pty Ltd / LLC company for taxation reasons.
Within a few hours a courier arrived at the door with a colourful keyboard and a fingerprint authentication device that looked like something out of a 007 movie. I downloaded Bloomberg and switched on the terminal. My life pretty much changed that moment.
I now had access to the exact same financial news, economic data and research enjoyed by Wall Street brokers. As I said before I didnt quite understand what I had, but as I was about to quit everything anyway I genuinely didn't care. I still remember receiving a breaking news alert on the terminal within the first few moments regarding the very first Takarta airbag recall. I decided to short the stock as a test trade and within the next few months that position alone paid for the next 2 years of terminal access.
I couldn't believe the power I now had and I lived it up big time. I travelled to China, Hong Kong and stayed at luxury hotels. I flew business class and everyone who told me to get a real job and stop gambling on the market now looked at me differently. I had made it as a Day Trader and was now in the class of a 'sophisticated investor ' permitting me to various benefits and investment opportunities.
Truth be told, Day Trading even when successful gets a little lonely and boring. I saw a job advertisement for a boutique Stockbroking firm in Sydney and applied using a few years of broker statements and sent my email via Bloomberg's IM directly to the CEO. I had 3x gruelling interviews and got the job. I didnt do too well at being a broker and actually got put in charge of creating a morning news briefing and research reports for clients. It was at this point I realised my real passion in life was writing about financial news and the stockmarket. To cut a long story short I quit my job as Broker and started my own financial news website- which I have never disclosed on Reddit and will never do so in the future - there is no underlying motive for posting this. I just want to say my point if view.
As a Professional Broker, we did not use technical analysis unless the client requested it OR when determining support and resistance. It just doesn't work for anything else and the level of research, news, analytics and data made available to institutions is considerably better than what is made available to retail traders.
So why is technical analysis promoted so heavily? For a few reasons.
Firstly, your broker only makes profit when you trade. It is therefore in their best interest to get you trading and generating fees as much as possible. In order to get you to do this, they must provide you with some kind of motivation or explanation as to why to buy or sell a stock. The financial news industry is quite different to other news and whilst insider trading is illegal- it is far more common than you would think and comes in various shapes and forms.
I consider insider trading to be acting on information not made available to the general public right now. For me, that includes a news story that has only been published to a select few people who can afford a subscription that costs the same as the price or a new car. The law has a different definition that favours the elite.
I believe that retail traders should have access to the very same information, at the same time, as institutional traders. Organisations such as Bloomberg or Reuters should NOT be allowed to withhold their news stories to subscribers for a period of time like they do. $24k per year for a subscription is ridiculous for most people and places this valuable information well out of reach. This is the kind of information that moves the financial markets - NOT chart patterns resembling a human torso (head & shoulders) or the stars in the night sky (gann).
To put it simply: Fundamental Analysis such as news, financial statements, broker recommendations, industry forecasts, product releases, trademark/copyright registrations, dividend announcements, research reports, law suits, fiscal policy, management changes, new regulations, COVID-19, opinion polls, regulatory action, fines and penalties, patent grants, consumer sentiment, predictions for interest rate changes and other economic calendar events - the list is endless. It is these that moves the financial markets - NOT chart patterns!
Anybody who has worked in a professional level finance job knows what I'm saying is 100% true and correct. It is only uneducated, uninformed, inexperienced retail traders who buy into the technical analysis BS. Unfortunately, many of these traders either get a few wins and genuinely believe their own hype OR are just excellent liars and choose to promote their BS strategy using very professional looking and convincing arguments. I'm certain many will respond to this post calling me an idiot.
I've quit trading and I'm not a broker. I'm an independent financial journalist and have ZERO investment holdings in any listed or non-listed company. I invest my money in AUD because it is my local currency and I own Gold - that's it. I'm 100% independent and I charge $1.00 for 12 months of access to my website which as I said is NOT given out on this reddit account. I've written this very lengthy post to provide some insight into the scam that is technical analysis.
I'll be on for the next 8 hours or so, go ahead and AMA if you have questions. Thanks.
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Quarter 3 2020 – Net worth up 4.3%, 92.8% savings rate

Quarter 3 2020 – Net worth up 4.3%, 92.8% savings rate
TLDR; One of those journey posts. Net worth above pre-crash highs; savings rate good, dividends slashed.

https://preview.redd.it/dyx3pgzid5s51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f60257e419469c2847c8effa40ab191bb3166ae6

Quarter 3 2020 – Net worth update: Up $103,000

After last quarter’s incredible reversal in fortunes, this last quarter has seemed positively sedate. There have been a few bouncy days here and there on the markets, but no definitive trends upwards or downwards (though I’m sure some chartists would disagree).
Instead, the whole world is waiting with bated breath for news of a vaccine or treatment that puts coronavirus to bed.
I was actually quite shocked at how well the Australian share market held up overall during reporting season. There were some winners, but most results were pretty weak-to-dire. And while you can argue that the market had already baked-in the results in the prices, who can honestly say with a straight face that August/September 2020 had the same outlook as January 2019? Sorry, I digress.
While world governments seem to be still grappling with the health aspects of coronavirus, imminent economic collapse seems to have been averted. I’ll have some more thoughts on possible ramifications from what has already happened later in the month though.
On the balance of things, I’m still quite pessimistic about the shape of domestic and international recovery. A vaccine is still a while away from being approved, let alone rolled out to the masses (mid-to-late 2021 before us plebs get access?). Government debt globally has skyrocketed. And in the personal finance space in Australia at least, the continued scaling back and eventual demise of JobKeeper payments will be one to watch. At stake is only the local economy, house prices, job security, and the state of the ASX.
At least Brexit seems to be going well. Oh, wait. And who knows what’ll happen next month in the American election now that the President has taken a turn. But it won’t be boring regardless of what happens. 2020 keeps on giving.
So with another three months in the record books, how has our net worth fared for Q3 2020?

Our financial goals

Before going further, here’s a reminder to our current early retirement goals. We’re looking to retire early before the age of 45 (and we’re currently 35 and 36) with a pre-tax FatFIRE passive income of $150,000 a year. Our net worth target is comprised of the following assets:
  • $2,000,000 in shares
  • $600,000 in two investment properties
  • $700,000 in superannuation
  • $1 million primarily place of residence
  • Total asset goal = $4,300,000.
You can track our net worth in our previous posts.

July-September: Shares

In personal news, we dipped our toes into the ETF waters for the first time. We made purchases of $15,000 and $20,000 for a pair of internationally-focussed passively managed funds that have a dividend focus. They were both trading at around a 20% discount to their pre-crash highs, so hopefully they’ll be a good long term investment.
Next week I’m writing an article about how domestic shares can have an often unacknowledged level of international market exposure. However, our portfolio hasn’t got sufficient international exposure from that alone give us diversification. So it was time to branch out with some international-only holdings. In fact, about 80% of our remaining share investments will be in funds with an international focus.
That said, we’re not entirely out of the domestic share market investment game. We also took up a Retail Entitlement Offer for one of our smaller share holdings. But that only came to just under $1,000.
After starting the quarter with $1,044,000 in our share portfolio, how did it end?
On 30 September, we had a share portfolio worth $1,091,000 – up $47,000 or 4.5% on Q2. As part of that, in addition to the $36,000 in share purchases mentioned above, we also received dividends – some of which were reinvested.
However, you’ll need to wait for our upcoming Q3 income and expenses report to see what our dividend income came to. Spoiler alert though: it’s not pretty.
All in all though, it wasn’t a bad result, given the ASX200 finished the quarter down around 1.4%. Far better than the devastation we saw back in January-March at least.

July-September: Superannuation

As mentioned above, the local markets finished slightly down for the quarter. So how did our superannuation fare?
Well, we started Q3 on $423,000 and ended with $447,000 – an increase of $24,000 or 5.6%.
Only about a quarter of that is from employer contributions – as we’re not making extra contributions to our superannuation. So that’s great outperformance! Even more impressively, that’s more than the $428,000 that we started the year on before it hit the fan in February.
Given that superannuation is a bit of a black box, it’s hard to tell why it outperformed so much. But I know that a large chunk of my personal super is in international shares, so maybe that explains it.
So while our share performance hasn’t been anything terrific, at least superannuation is turning up to the party.

July-September: Primary place of residence

Property prices have been surprisingly resilient amid the damaged economy. We’re still seeing properties in our area going on sale. How many are forced? Who knows. But prices don’t seem to be falling – yet anyway – in our area. In fact, apparently Brisbane house prices went up 0.5% in September – crazy!
But what do our go-to property sites have to say about our house price?
Well, Onthehouse.com.au prices it at $775,000 – identical to both Q1 and Q2. Conversely, an ANZ property report said our house is worth $711,000 (down $2,000 on Q2, but up $40,000 on Q1).
Like in the past, using a rule of not moving the price unless we have a pair of sources agreeing on a price move in the same direction, we’ll keep the house price at $655,000.
We still think prices in the $700,000s are too much, but would gladly take it when it comes time to sell.
In terms of calculating our net worth, our mortgage is fully paid off in regards to having money in an offset account. So the full capital value is ours in that ledger.

July-September: Investment properties

With our PPoR maintaining its value, what about our two investment properties?
Last quarter they rose back to where they were in Q1, and the story was much the same in Q3:
  • Onthehouse.com.au – combined value $700,000 ($700,000 in Q2 2020).
  • ANZ – combined value $616,000 ($617,000 in Q2 2020).
With the ANZ property report coming down just a fraction and Onthehouse.com.au holding firm, we’ll keep the combined values at $605,000.
Unlike our home, these properties do have mortgages on them with money owing. We started the quarter owing $369,000, but that dropped to $367,000 over the three months.
That gives us total equity of $238,000, an increase of $2,000 or 0.8%.
Also stay tuned for a series of articles on our investment properties starting in the next month or so. We’re going to be talking about the finances behind them in greater detail for the first time.

Financial state of the union

We finished Q2 2020 with a net worth of $2,358,000. Here’s how things look three months later after Q3 2020:
Asset Value
Shares $1,091,000
Superannuation $477,000
Investment properties value $605,000
Investment properties debt -$367,000
Primary place of residence $655,000
Total $2,461,000
We landed on $2,461,000, an increase of $103,000 or 4.3%.
Like our superannuation, that’s actually a small increase now on the numbers we saw at the end of 2019 that was our previous all-time high.
While it’s good to actually be making some level of progress at last, it just makes me feel a bit like 2020 has been a bit of a waste. All that work and saving for practically nothing. But, that’s a first world privileged problem to have at the moment.
All in all, a good quarter on the net worth front. Next up we’ll have our Q3 income and expenses report. Sadly, the news there – particularly for our vital dividend income – is much, much worse.
BLOG POST LINK: https://hishermoneyguide.com/quarter-3-2020-net-worth-update/

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Q3 2020 income and expenses: 92.8% savings rate

Life has slowed in the HHMG household. We’re not locked down like we were in April-May, but we’re still keeping socially distant, and minimising going out and about. With vulnerable parents, our actions don’t only risk impacting ourselves. However, it’s terrific to see the reduction in coronavirus cases in Australia over the past few months. Fingers tightly crossed we don’t see another large outbreak like the one that occurred in Victoria.
That said, the individual days go by quickly enough. It’s nice being able to watch TV over lunch, for instance. And you can’t beat regular cat hugs.
However, with an office only 10 steps away from bed, things are kind of all merging into one. It’s a bit disconcerting that this working from home, Covid-normal has now been in our lives for over six months.
The best news of all is that 2020 is 75% done. We can’t wait to see the back of it. Surely 2021 can’t be any worse?
But while the year has been memorable for practically all the wrong reasons, what about our finances? If you saw our Q3 net worth update, you would have seen that we recovered to our pre-crash highs. Sadly though, the news is less good in this update.

July-September: Income and side hustles

In good news, my wife Ellie managed to score herself a minor pay rise from mid-year, bringing in almost $80 a week extra after tax. It’s not a huge amount, but it’s better than what I achieved: triple doughnuts or $0.00, with a pay freeze until next year. Frankly in this economic climate, any increase is a minor miracle, so great work Ellie!
Currently neither of our jobs are under imminent threat. But from next year onwards, we’re both quite worried that we’ll be under the termination microscope. I’m desperately trying to cling on long enough to achieve long service leave in early 2021 to give us a bit more of a monetary buffer if I was retrenched and needed to find a new job in a dire jobs market. Ellie has already reached long service (once again beating my efforts).
We’re also currently trying to max-out our annual leave balances as much as possible to use them as an alternative bank account in case we lose our jobs. It just seems prudent in the current environment.
However, let’s talk money. For our salaries, we had six pay cycles in Q3 – one down on Q2. In total our salaries earned us $38,062 after tax for the quarter. That’s a small increase of $936 or 2.5% on last year.
Coronavirus continues to impact our bottle collection efforts for this year. We managed to make one trip during the quarter, collecting $83.40. We’re only picking up a few here and there these days, with most coming from our parents. That’s well down on the $235 we had this time last year. The blog itself earned $249.89, entirely from Google Adsense payments from ads displayed and clicked.
After seeing our income from online surveys increasing, Ellie also published an article during the quarter on what online surveys are and which ones we use. True to form, our income from them for the quarter hit a new high of $460. That’s an increase of $175 on this time last year. Q4 is already shaping up well on that front as well.
Our side hustles amounted to $793.29 for the quarter, giving us a total active income of $38,855.29 between July and September. That compares to $37,765 last year – an increase of $1,090.29 or 2.9%.
And that, folks, is about as good as the news today is going to get.

July-September: Dividends

Time to take a deep breath.
Okay, that was more like an apprehensive wince.
Q3 is usually an important quarter for our dividends – the biggest of the year when many stocks provide final distributions. Naturally, this year is like no other that we’ve experienced. So let’s see what the damage is while comparing the previous two years:
Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020
DRP/DSSP reinvested/Direct debit, excluding franking credits $15,465.78 $16,439.23 $10,218.59
Ouch.
A total of $10,218.59 for July-September represents a dividend reduction of $6,220.64 or 37.8%.
That’s not good. Like we’ve said before, our goal is for share dividends to make up the bulk of our early retirement income. So losing well over a third of that is… bad.
While our Q3 2020 net wealth rose above pre-crash levels, clearly this is an area we’ve gone backwards in.
Our high exposure to the banks is really our biggest undoing here. Thankfully over the last two years we’ve been investing heavily away from them, knowing it was potentially a fatal flaw. In this instance, it has proven to be the case with one hell of a stress test.
Instead we’ve recently been investing in Listed Investment Companies, and only during this last quarter did we buy our first ETFs. On the LIC front, things are actually quite encouraging. These quarterly dividends only reflect three out of six LIC dividends we’re receiving in this half of the year. All of our LIC holdings have now announced dividends, and the biggest cut to dividends was “only” *cough* by about a third, while a couple have actually increased their dividends. So at least the strategy to invest in LICs for their ability to smooth dividends seems to be paying, well, dividends.
All in all, pretty sobering results, but we’re not too depressed yet. We’ve previously discussed that we always expected there to be some lean years once we hit early retirement, and 2020/21 is looking to be a prototype of that.
In retirement, as long as we’ve got enough income coming in to cover our basic living expenses (which will be larger than they currently are), we’ll still have a great life – with the ability to cut back further if required.
In addition to dividends, once we FIRE we’ll also have some rental property income coming in. As telegraphed in our earlier Q3 net worth update, we’re providing an update on these properties in the coming month or two to give a better idea of how things stand there. So a bad result with dividends alone won’t necessarily sink our early retirement hopes either.
That said, from the dividends that have been announced it looks like Q4 will be a little brighter than the drubbing we just experienced. However, one thing that’s certain is that dividends won’t rebound overnight. The second half of this financial year will be very interesting.
\The numbers listed above are ‘somewhat net’ – for the purposes of calculating our savings rate. It includes franked and unfranked dividends – but not* franking credits (which are essentially pre-paid tax credits). For the unfranked dividends (and a small additional 7% portion of the franked dividends due to our marginal tax rates), we pay additional tax towards the end of the calendar year. For reference, we received an additional $3,409.69 in franking credits for the period – giving us a total of $13,628.28 in gross dividends for the quarter.\*

July-September: Expenses

Let’s take a look at our expenses for Q3 2020, with a comparison to Q3 2019:
[EXPENSE CHART IN BLOG POST]
In total we spent $3,528.22 for the quarter, compared to $4,272.89 last year – a decrease of $744.67 or 17.4%. While at face value that should be lauded, in reality our car service (Q3 last year) was pushed forward a month this year (to Q2). So really our spending is roughly flat, which we’re still happy about. That said, there are a few stories behind the numbers worth mentioning.
Our electricity usage went up 28.3% due to working from home. However, our bill was only 19% more expensive thanks to a government relief payment for households due to coronavirus. But with 13.4kWh per day consumption, it’s indicative of what sort of daily usage we’d have in retirement if we were home all day. It adds up having extra TV time over lunch, the microwave and kettle running a few times extra a day, and a couple of computers running non-stop when they previously weren’t. In other news, we’re swapping electricity retailers in October to what should be a slightly cheaper plan. We’ll see how things change next quarter.
Speaking about working from home, both Ellie and I will be claiming the Australian Taxation Office’s shortcut method to claim $0.80 per worker, per hour worked from home between 1 March and 30 June when we lodge our tax returns in Q4 to get some of those extra expenses back! Though look into your tax options to work out what works best for you.
We also started the process of swapping internet plans to the NBN (long story – we’re still not on it and won’t be for a while – more details in Q4). We were only a couple of months short of getting kicked off ADSL, so it was forced on us. The best plan we could find was $55 a month compared to the $50 we have been spending. With extra working from home we felt we really couldn’t do with the most basic of plans available. It also meant we needed to buy a pair of WiFi dongles to go with a new (free) modem. Our existing modem just used good old RJ45 ethernet cables, but because of the location of the NBN outlet we needed to go with WiFi.
Continuing the IT theme, Ellie’s computer also died during the quarter. In the end we bought a refurbished one from eBay for $109, which wasn’t bad at all. It was a mild gamble buying it, but so far it has paid off and she’s happy with it. The event also inspired the article on how we can’t avoid some expenses forever.
My driver’s licence renewal also arrived, so that was an extra expense compared to last year – almost $350 for the year so far with Ellie’s also coming up at the start of the year. At the same time though, the savings in fuel costs compared to this time last year more than make up for the licence fees.
In total, if you take out our New Zealand holiday from the start of the year, our expenses for the year-to-date are very similar to last year’s at this stage – $12,083.81 compared to $12,710.74 in 2019. (If you offset us being away for a couple of weeks in February, our expenses would be a few hundred dollars higher. The more things change, the more they stay the same.)

How are we tracking? Q3 savings rate

As always, let’s throw it all together to work out our savings rate:
Q3 Value
Income $38,855.29
Share dividends $10,218.59
Expenses -$3,528.22
Total savings $45,545.66
Savings rate 92.8%
With total savings of $45,545.66 for the quarter, that’s a 92.8% savings rate.
It’s a good result, though tempered by the reduction in dividends. Regardless, we’re fundamentally in a good place at a horrible time. We’ve been incredibly fortunate to date, and it’s not something we want to take for granted. Our own job security is slowly coming on the line, so we need to make the most of the opportunity we still have for as long as we have it.
Looking ahead to Q4, just like last year our tax bill is now a looming issue. We haven’t lodged our tax assessments yet, but we have calculated them. We anticipate that our tax will be will higher than last year. So that’ll be one giant savings rate killer in Q4.
Even if we hadn’t gone on holidays at the start of the year, and still achieved fractionally small savings during year-to-date thanks to coronavirus, we’d struggle to hit a 90% savings rate for the entire year. It would be possible, but highly unlikely. However, a bigger tax bill will put the final nail in that coffin.
Of course, some of the biggest economic news of the year hit this week after Q3 ended, with the delayed 2020 Federal Budget finally breaking cover. It looks like we’ll be about $4,000 a year better off (too late for 2019-20 and our upcoming bill, though!). But we’ll have to wait and see how things go with backdated tax cuts and the passing of the legislation. Regardless, we hope you’ll get a nice benefit from the tax cuts yourself if you’re an Australian.
2020 has been one heck of a rocky ride so far. Hopefully the end of the year brings some positively and signs of a return to normality. Unfortunately, I think that even once we get past the virus with a vaccine (and that’s really still an if) we’ll have a bit more instability ahead of us as a result of economic and budgetary damage that’s already happened. But before then, we still need to make it through the final three months of 2020. Gulp.
Until we meet again, we hope you stay safe and secure.
Cheers,
Alex
BLOG POST LINK: https://hishermoneyguide.com/quarter-3-2020-income-and-expenses/
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Meet the Sharemarket's Corona Generation

https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/meet-the-sharemarket-s-corona-generation-20200610-p551dz
On Wednesday morning, moments before the market opened for trading, Will Bennett, a moderator of a popular Facebook stock trading group, made a "public service announcement".
The vast majority of the group's 23,700 members were just a few weeks into their trading careers and with SPI Futures pointing towards a 1.4 per cent fall, Bennett tried to prepare them for what he anticipated would be their first bloodbath session.
"Remember markets go up AND down," he said. "Don't make emotional decisions and DON'T PANIC SELL if selling is not part of your plan."
Not all the members of the group were worried. One trader's down day is another's top-up day and most were itching to buy more of their favourite stocks.
But as the session came to a close, the market had turned and rallied to end in the green.
"Today was meant to be the day that it came crashing down and it turned out to be just fine," the 25-year-old from South Melbourne told AFR Weekend with a mixture of surprise and guilt.
"I have no sensible stocks," admits Bennett, who had held blue-chip stocks for years until he sold out last September, only to re-enter the market with a bet on a penny stock which has crashed and burned.
Another trade in buy now, pay later (BNPL) player Zip Ltd has soared to cover his $4000 loss. Zip was more actively traded on Commsec this week.
"I should be getting punished. It should not be this easy," says Bennett.
Bennett has time on his hands and has been stuck at home. He doesn't drink or smoke – and the gyms are closed. So he watches the market all day.
He's also agreed to help as a moderator of the ASX Stock Tips Group that has grown from 15,000 to 23,700 members in 12 weeks to become Facebook's largest Australian share trading forum.
There they share ideas, memes and seek validation for the bets they're placing into a market that has gone up like a rocket, but which the experts have repeatedly warned is becoming detached from reality.
Market watchers say there's nothing particularly new or interesting about an influx of individuals being lured to the stock market in search of quick profits.
But the nature of the coronavirus outbreak – in crashing the market and confining entire populations to their homes – has unleashed forces of speculation the likes of which we have never seen before.
In the United States, millions of Americans have opened trading accounts with popular trading app Robinhood. But from the time the S&P500 bottomed on March 23, the number of active accounts has surged by 70 per cent to 37.1 million.

Zero-cost brokerage

Robinhood's model of zero-cost brokerage has made it cheap and easy for anyone to trade the market. Controversially, it makes its money by directing the orders to high-frequency trading firms that are in turn able to profit from the activity.
Meanwhile, Japanese investors are shedding their decades-long aversion to stocks while South Korean retail investors have also stormed back into the market.
Australia's market structure, in which one exchange dominates, makes it less conducive to the zero-cost brokerage model.
But that's done little to deter a new generation of young traders, nor has March's harrowing correction.
Since late March, Commsec, the largest retail broker, has grown its share of trading by an enormous 1.2 per cent to 4.8 per cent, according to the popular market newsletter, the Coppo Report.
The last time the market crashed badly, in 2008, middle men with margin loans swore off stocks for good after their Babcock & Brown shares blew up.
This time it has had the opposite effect. The coronavirus crash put the stock market on a once in a life-time introductory sale while the volatility added the potential to get rich quick.
So they may be holed up at home in their bedrooms, but newbie traders are having the time of their lives.
"Z1p your f**cking spacesuits up and give your wife's boyfriend one more kiss on the lips because we're going to the MOON today boys," wrote a poster on Reddit stock forum on Wednesday.
The newbies are enthusiastically gravitating to the BNPL darlings, like Zip and Afterpay that are up six times from their late March lows.
But they have also embraced the bargain-hunting tactics of value investors and have rushed to bet on a recovery in the beaten-up travel sector.
Broker activity shows a surge of trading from retail broker firms in stocks such as Flight Centre and Webjet.
Those businesses were forced to raise hundreds of millions of dollars of expensive emergency capital in the depths of the crisis.
But their share prices have since recovered to levels that seem to defy the reality of the situation.

Bloodbath arrives

That was until Thursday, when broker downgrades from the big end of town triggered a sell-off in the travel stocks,
And on Friday, the bloodbath arrived after Wall Street's worst session since March.
Flight Centre and Webjet were pulverised – falling by 12 per cent, while the big BNPL names were down 8 per cent before rallying to pare back half the losses.
"Suing whoever said stocks only go up," said one poster. "Good time to buy. but got no money. Deleting commsec for one month"
Bennett says the activity was chaotic, with many traders posting comments of denial and despair. Their anxiety wasn't helped by glitches on overloaded trading platforms.
"Many traders have only experienced the market rising, but they haven't followed the golden rule to diversify and now they're in for a nasty surprise."
Until this week, the little guy was well and truly sticking it to the big end of town.
An analysis by the Coppo Report showed retail stockbroking firms have been net buyers of $7.4 billion of stock since February 20, while institutional brokers were net sellers of $11.2 billion.
"To call them the 'dumb money' ... is just insulting" the report's author Richard Coppleson wrote.
The similarities to the US are uncanny.
While the world's greatest investor, Warren Buffett, dumped his airline stocks in March, retail investors have rushed in the sector, which has tripled from its lows.
The Oracle of Omaha, an inspiration for so many generations of investors, has degenerated into a meme, as day traders high on profits and low on humility openly mock him.
"The big sharks are dumb. The economy is in great shape, best it’s ever been," said one poster on the Facebook forum.
Robinhood traders also bid up shares of broke car rental company Hertz, which has gained an incredible 800 per cent since declaring bankruptcy in May and rendering the common stock all but worthless.
They also shifted their bets away from previously hot stocks like Elon Musk's Tesla in favour of the Ford Motor Company.
Australian novice traders are also finding their feet and learning that stocks can be bought and sold on the same day, but not in the evening.
These newbie traders want and need help but not from the experts, who haven't excelled themselves in calling the market.
The commentary that the stock market is overheated, they believe, is motivated by institutions that want to get back into the market at a lower price.
And Bennett agrees there are many on the sidelines that are "salty" they've missed the rally.
Some traders are not taking kindly to insinuations that they don't know what they're doing, or they need looking after.
An ABC segment carrying a warning from regulators about the risks facing inexperienced day traders was mostly met with ridicule on a Reddit site where it was posted.

'We know we're idiots'

"Tells people not to invest, then shows people making money," said one poster.
"I'm surprised they picked someone who is only up 35 per cent. There are a lot of people making way more than that. Hell, my zip is up 380 per cent and I didn't time it that well."
Another said the regulator and the government might be worried that ordinary Australians were going to work out how poorly their superannuation had been managed after discovering how easy it was to make money trading stocks.
"I know how much money I pay in each quarter and the shitty returns they’re making on my behalf."
As the market soared and more winners than losers have been created, a counter-culture of self-assured young day traders is forming.
One female who preferred to remain anonymous says she is concerned about the level of sexism among traders. There may be no physical trading room floor but she says she's put off by comments in the virtual trading community.
Another major concern, she says, is "young investors gambling $10,000 of their just released COVID support relief package out of their super".
"I’m not kidding, it is happening a lot at the moment," she says.
"There are people 'working from home' who are bored, have downtime, want to learn a new skill, are aware that the market is technically down, and I feel worried about the level they are gambling."
Lord of Ruin, who moderates the increasingly popular ASX_bets Reddit site, says he doesn't believe there's much difference between the traders of today and those that have made and lost their fortunes in the past.
With one exception, social media has brought more "introspection".
"Yes we're idiots, but we know we're idiots, now look at my meme about stodgy central bankers firing bank notes into a crowd of already rich people."
Lord of Ruin, who is in his mid-30s and still working in a technical field, says retail investors "are getting all the thanks" for the rising market.
He says the market remains a dangerous place for individual investors who are preyed on by pump and dumpers.
"Only they don't cold-call you from a boiler room anymore, they leave comments in your forums and subreddits while moderators play Whack-a-mole."
There are valid reasons why individuals have rushed into the market and why online forums like ASX Stock Tips, exuberance and all, have proved useful in guiding individuals into the stock market.
The last time the stock market crashed, Westpac was prepared to pay anxious savers 8 per cent to keep their money safe. This time the bank is paying you close to nothing. The opportunity cost of risking money in the market is lower than it has ever been.
"People have a heap of money. They have saved a heap in this lockdown and they don’t want to earn $2 a month at the bank," says Bennett.
"They are seeing other people making a lot of money and they feel they are missing out."
While he says he's not accessed his superannuation early, he admits it's been "tempting" and more bullish investors are tapping the banks for investment loans.
For many investors, the COVID crash gave them the confidence to put their savings to work as other investments such as a property remain out of reach for now.
Sian Gard from Bendigo, who is in her early 40s, has also embraced the share market and the exchange of ideas on the forum.
Gard works in media and after doing her finances late last year she was determined to find an alternative source of wealth creation so she would have enough funds to retire.
"I need to diversify my income stream and looked at the banking sector and what I was getting. It was quite depressing. This was not going to get me anywhere."
She admits being "petrified" making her first stock purchase, but a small position on Point Bet Holdings has worked spectacularly well – rising from $1.91 to $7.
"I didn't invest a huge amount but that's $3000 I haven't had to work for," she says.
Gard says she is "a risk-taker but it has to be calculated".
"I feel the same about the market and I try to make sensible decisions. I am trying to look after myself."
She says she's enjoying the intellectual challenge of working out which stocks to buy but in particular she's revelling in the "the financial empowerment".
"I am going to do this with my money, and if it bombs it's my fault."
submitted by HGCDLLM to AusFinance [link] [comments]

Betting on the Blockchain

Betting on the Blockchain
Breaking news - 100% token only acquisition of a company that is the first of its kind. Playchip acquires 123gaming through an unprecedented zero cash acquisition, the acquisition marks the first time an unlisted token has been used as full payment in the acquisition of a US-registered business.
Those who are fans of e-sports and online betting might be happy to know there is now a universal token for a diverse and growing ecosystem. Like most things in the cryptosphere, attempts to disrupt industries are happening fast, although this story began in 2014.PlayUp is a gaming company turned prominent player in the multi-billion-dollar fantasy sports market, and currently with an annual turnover of more than $430 million in 2018. They have made great strides with their online betting token PlayChip: a universal token for e-sports, gaming, fantasy sports and sports betting.PlayChip is looking to decentralize and incentivize the global sports betting market, which according to the company’s white paper is a whopping estimated $3 trillion annual opportunity.With an IPO coming in H1 2019 and listing on the NASDAQ and ASX big things are coming for the operational online betting platform.

https://preview.redd.it/2nd0vvfju8p11.png?width=948&format=png&auto=webp&s=e4e7f238a158d551ff844f9e3c474c670445ae64
Pain points aimed be solved by Playchip
While the company has identified several keys issues in the online betting industry, these two seem
to be the most significant in expanding functionality and adoption in the space:
Lack of a universal payment system:
A global solution that allows online gaming platforms to load and cash out their gaming chips using a reliable and timely mechanism for transferring funds to their current location and local currency.
Payment Lag and Transactional Security:
Too many regulatory barriers currently delay users from accessing their winnings and technology has yet to provide a seamless fix. A lot of it has to do with know-your-customer (KYC) and Anti-money laundering (AML) regulations which can be a hard problem to overcome, even in the crypto space.
Eventually, holders of the PlayChip will be able to seamlessly and instantly transfer funds between the various partner and international exchanges. This will provide a degree of control and security in a manner not seen before in online gaming.
The PlayChip Ecosystem
The PlayChip ecosystem, which is fueled by the PlayChip (PLA) token, is comprised of fantasy sports and licensed online gambling establishments as well as a PlayWallet that is scheduled to be launched in November 2018.

https://preview.redd.it/9sc2hz8pu8p11.png?width=262&format=png&auto=webp&s=eaea6ca3b482dde0d3700d59e748c8603c7a28ce
Players:
Any individual with a smart device can access PlayChip services from around the globe. PlayChip with a user base of over 1 million from 70 nations, has particularly high traction in India, Australia, United Kingdom, and the USA.
Partner Gaming Platform:
Online gaming providers can integrate their services into the PlayChip ecosystem. PlayChip currently has multiple gaming platforms, including recent acquisition 123bet.
Global Crypto Exchanges:
Cryptocurrency exchange partners around the world will allow players and token holders to trade PlayChip tokens and convert them into local currency. With use of PlayXchange, users link to the PlayWallet and gives users the ability to trade the PlayChip tokens.
Team and Ambassadors
The PlayChip management team has four decades of combined experience across interactive gaming and global online businesses, with CEO Daniel Simic at the helm. They are expanding far and quickly with their offices across Sydney, London, New York and Hong Kong.
PlayChip has also engaged an established team of advisors including those from the sports and blockchain arenas. Some of their advisors include Major League Fantasy Founder Jesse Merle, as well as ‘Echelon One Founder’ Luke Lombe and IT Consultant Stephane Savanah, among others.
See more on https://www.playchip.global/#team

Brett Lee - cricket legend and a proud sporting ambassador of PlayChip & Russell Crowe’s professional rugby league team from Australia, the Rabbitohs, proudly wear the Playchip logo
Growth Potential

https://preview.redd.it/1atvjah7v8p11.png?width=108&format=png&auto=webp&s=0690cc41bb6fab82f1c114a06405db16c6ad1c29
  • Daily fantasy sports (DFS) revenues are predicted to exceed US$14.4 billion by 2020 and online gambling growing at 10.81% CAGR and exceeding US$500 billion according the company’s white paper
  • A current user base of more than 1M across 70 countries. The PlayChip ecosystem consists of Draftstars, ToppBetta, ClassicBet, MadBookie, betting.club, 123Gaming and of course PlayUp
  • Recent acquisition of 123Gaming places PlayChip in a strategic move toward expansion of U.S. online gaming industry, which according to Statistics Portal saw revenue of 47B in 2017
  • In the month of April 2018, SimilarWeb™ reported PlayUp in the top 10 most trafficked sports-related websites in India
https://www.playchip.global/#partners
What’s next
PlayChip has a great appeal, one whose beloved sports betters are sure to appreciate, particularly those in the blockchain community. Playchip have alot on the horizon including PlayUp Bet that offers wagering options on nine different sports, as well as the chance to bet on horse, greyhound and harness racing on more than 25 major racetracks around the globe. Many are also looking forward to a range of wagering options on the UFC and eSports of which will be included in subsequent updates.
Are you ready to PlayChip? Check out their website at https://www.playchip.global/.
submitted by DigichainCapital to u/DigichainCapital [link] [comments]

Bitcoin as a tool; A Decentralized and Global Stock Exchange

I posted a link to my yours.org the other day, but due to that sites activity being far less than this site, I've decided to upload my posts here for at least a little while, and will continue to post updates here if people find them interesting. As my previous post stated, all input, positive and of course negative is more than welcome.
 
Coloured Coins; the Basics: https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/7ne47b/coloured_coins_the_basics_non_technical/
 
This post is an extension of my "Coloured Coins; the basics" where I touched on the concept of coloured coins and how it relates to Bitcoin (cash), the blockchain and the decentralizing movement we are currently seeing develop within finance and economics in the form of electronic peer-to-peer payment systems. I will be expanding upon the idea of a decentralized and global equities exchange that can be made possible by the use of coloured tokens on Bitcoin.
 
A lot of people within this cryptocurrency space found themselves here, not through an interest in finance or economics, but instead through computer science and programming, or even just an interest in gambling or playing with new and interesting tech. For those of you who know nothing of finance and economics and who have never bought or sold a stock in a company, I will briefly explain what equity investing is and then how coloured coins can change the current methods used today. Typical methods of investing see an individual buy a small portion of a company that they believe will yield positive profits into the future. By purchasing 0.1% of the company, they entitle themselves to 0.1% of that companies profits, paid out in the form of a dividend. These holdings are called stocks, and they are bought and sold through the use of stock exchanges typically contained within a country (currently, there is no global stock exchange). If you've ever heard someone say; "You can't invest in Bitcoin, you can only hold and speculate on its price.", they are following the belief, that because you are not purchasing equity in a system designed to return a profit, you are not investing in the traditional sense.
 
To purchase Bitcoin is not the same as an equity investment in a company that yeilds profits for shareholders; paid out in the form of a dividend. Bitcoin is a tool, not a system of value creation. It can be seen as an investment and perhaps its primary use right now is just that; a speculative investment, but I believe when we pass this initial adoption phase, and the tool starts to shine in the ways its truly meant to, thats when things get fun.
 
Bitcoin as a tool; A decentralized and global stock exchange
 
My previous post touched on this idea of a blockchain based, Decentralised Stock Exchange (DSE), built on top of the Bitcoin (cash) protocol. This is not my original idea, and I am definitely not the first person to expand upon it, I do however have a passion for finance, and felt this idea deserved a post of its own due to the nature and magnitude that this could change the current global equities markets. I've talked about how coloured coins open doors to making a DSE possible, the point of this post is to explore it in more depth, talking about what it could look like, and why I (and many others I assume) would want it to exist.
 
Before we talk about the how and why of this DSE, lets briefly cover how stocks have been traded in the past and how the trading is currently handled.
Before the introduction and wide spread use of the internet, stock trading was typically handled by a person known as a broker. For the average person to purchase a stock, they would seek the services and usually advice of a broker on which stocks they should buy. This service came with a hefty fee that made investing more niche that it is today. If you were looking to invest $1000 into the market, but you didn't know how or what to purchase, you would enlist the help of a broker. This consultation could very easily take an hour or more and cost around $100. A typical healthy yearly return for a stable blue chip or index fund (a collection of blue chip stocks) in the market is anywhere from 8-12%. This essentially means, that prior to the adoption of the internet, an individual looking to invest $1000 would need to sacrifice a good years worth of returns (10%) in fees, and thats not even factoring in the opportunity cost associated with letting that money sit in a 4% savings account in the early 2000s instead. Very few, if anyone would have purchased less than $2000 or even less than $5000 at any one time with fees of around $100.
Fast forward to today, and what do we have? To purchase stocks now, an individual will most likely seek advice on the internet, and use an online service provided by his or her bank that allows the user to trade on the stock exchange within the country. Use of this service comes with a brokerage fee, however, due to the automation from the program, trades are faster and less human recources are expended, so fees are lower. In Australia a typical brokerage fee to purchase a packet of shares online would be $20. In todays world, interest rates have fallen and the stock markets, especially within the first world countries, have become a lot more efficient (approaching a theory known as the efficient market hypothesis), and thus returns are lower. So that $20 that doesn't sound like a lot, can bite into your returns if you are purchasing only a small amount, which we will explore now. Lets say you have $500 that you are looking to invest in a low risk large collection of shares such as an index fund. That $20 now equates to 4% of your total purchase. In the current market, a good year could return roughly 8%. Now you've sacrificed half a years profits (4%) on just the purchasing of the stock. I believe with the methods of purchasing stocks we have today, to spend less than $2000 on any one transaction is inadvisable (this means that you are paying a 1% fee of your initial investment).
So we've gone from $5000 to $2000 for a reasonable purchase, for some people these amounts are affortable, but many more people looking to invest just dont have that kind of money ready to park and leave in the market long into the future.
 
Now we are getting to the next step in this process; the blockchain model. By allowing companies to offer up equity in the form of nonfungable coloured coins ontop of a decentralised global public blockchain, you have opened this market up to everyone with an internet connection and any amount of spare cash. I see no reason why fees would need to exceed anything past a couple of cents, if they were too high, another person would be able to implement a competing system with lower fees due to the open source nature of the Bitcoin protocol. Transactions would be as fast as any other on the network, and individuals would be able to buy or sell equity across country lines without banks and government regulations. By building an equities exchange on top of Bitcoin, every person with an internet connection would have access to buy or sell equity in a company from anyone anywhere on the planet, essentially instantly and basically for free. This is an anarchists dream, it could usher in a new era in globalised trade, that in so far as Bitcoin is unhackable, would be completely secure.
 
Lets talk about regulation and IPO requirements
 
In Australia the current requirments for a business to go public on the stock market through an initial public offering (IPO) are as follows; A minimum of 300 non-affiliated investors at A$2000, they must offer up a free float of 20% in equity, they must pass a profit test whereby they are required to have consolidated A$1 million in profit from continued operations over the past 3 years, as well as A$500,000 profit from continuing operations over the last 12 months, or they are required to have either A$4million in net tangible assets, or A$15million market capitalisation. These figures can be found at http://www.asx.com.au.
 
The specific details don't matter, what matters is; companies need to be large and selling equity is not currently a possibility for the vast majority of small and even medium sized businesses. And on top of that, the current model also requires a set of ongoing and public financial reporting that all past, present and future share holders must have access to. The blockchain model would not only allow more people to buy stock in companies across the planet, but it would allow smaller businesses the opportunity to raise capital by selling equity; a system of financing that has potential to bring massive growth to those its available to. However, this is where things can get dicey.
 
Some would argue these stock exchange markets need governing bodies to oversee that things are done properly and that businesses can't scam or mislead people into purchasing stock that they otherwise would not have, had they been privvy to all the information. My personal opinion on this is that I don't know for sure whether a decentralised exchange would be able to succeed in a world that lacks centralised regulation, however I tend to believe less regulation is more often better than more, and if there became a demand for regulation/oversite, then perhaps a private business that monitors and confirms the legitimacy of companies that are trying to sell equity on the blockchain would be set up. This company would sell this service, and their reputation, business model and profits would be effected if they were found to be dodgy, thus they would have incentive to maintain legitimate practices.
 
Thats all I have to say on the topic of decentralised stock markets. The prospect excites me a great deal, and I look forward to hearing what you guys think.
 
Regards
Cooper
https://www.yours.org/usecooperverdon
submitted by KoopaV to btc [link] [comments]

[Informational] [CC0] Wright and Wrong

Craig Steven Wright

Australian software enthusiast Craig Steven Wright, also known as CSW, born in October of 1970, is notable for making an unsubstantiated claim to be Satoshi Nakamoto in May of 2016.

Background

It is known that Craig Wright is definitely a software enthusiast. He volunteered as an unpaid computer science lecturer at Charles Sturt University and paid to complete various technical certification tests: a GIAC certification in Compliance and Audits, a GSE Malware certification, and a GSECompliance certification.
Craig has claimed to have a doctorate in computer science, although when contacted Charles Sturt University made a statement to the contrary. CSU further went on to contradict his characterization of his employment there, clarifying that the position he had previously referred to was an unpaid volunteer role.
Craig has often referred to himself as a doctor in software contexts, but his only doctorate claim that is not questioned is that of a theological doctorate with a thesis relating to creationism.
Over the years Craig Wright has been mentioned in relationship to various marginal activities. Craig helped create a casino in 1999. In 2004 he was convicted of contempt of court and sentenced to 28 days in jail. Craig maintained his innocence, but the charges were held up on two separate appeals.

Bitcoin Claims

In recent years Craig has been mentioned in relation to a questionable deal in which his company claimed $54 million in tax rebates from the Australian government that were earmarked to reward tech industry investment in Australia. The circumstances around that substantial rebate have been called into question, by the Australian authorities and others. There remains a distinct lack of information as to whether the rebates were warranted.
Craig Wright claimed that his claimed government monies were to be used in relation to a Bitcoin related supercomputer project his company Cloudcroft was creating, in partnership with the well known computing firm SGI. His company circulated a signed letter on SGI letterhead declaring the partnership. But when asked to confirm the partnership directly, the SGI Chief Operating Officer denied any involvement with the project. He went further, stating that SGI had never even had any contact with Cloudcroft. No proof of the Cloudcroft supercomputer's existence was ever published.
In December of 2015, Craig Wright's house was raided by the Sydney police in a tax investigation relating to tax rebates. Part of the claims of this tax rebate related to Bitcoin: it was claimed by Craig that he had a large amount of Bitcoin in the makeup of his investments, but no proof of these assertions was ever made available.
Craig was in fact listed as a MTGox customer on leaked customer reports published in 2014, but only purchasing Bitcoin and after a large media blitz where buying Bitcoin was becoming increasingly well-known. By the leak's numbers Craig spent about five thousand dollars to acquire fifty coins, losing fifteen to the MTGox collapse. This raised a question, why would someone holding over a million bitcoins worth hundreds of millions of dollars spend thousands of dollars over a long stretch of time to buy fifty more?
In December of 2015, around the same time as the heated tax investigation into the veracity of Craig's Bitcoin investment and holding claims, unsourced rumors started to suggest that Craig is Satoshi. If he were Satoshi, it would have given great credence to his tax related claims of large Bitcoin related holdings and investment. Some of these rumors find their way into public stories published by news outlets, but no credible evidence is found, and some evidence that is produced seems to have been fabricated to mislead people into misinterpretation.

Satoshi Claims

It was revealed by Andrew O'Hagan in the London Review of Books that Craig had been working with some business associates on the assumption of his secret Satoshi identity. Craig privately claimed, but never showed proof, to many people that he was Satoshi, and had arranged a high stakes business relationship to create a large series of Bitcoin related patents in a very large multimillion dollar deal. As an advance on the anticipated profits, Craig was offered large sums of money, which he spent lavishly on ostentatious cars and clothing, to the chagrin of his business partners.
After 2015, the story died down due to the disproven evidence and dead-end leads. Craig and his partners, with a professional PR company, began to contact news outlets about publishing new evidence to his Satoshi identity, promising them a valuable story on very specific terms. Craig demanded that all involved sign non disclosure agreements and then go to meet him in a rented conference room to validate his claim. He demanded that only a computer produced by his assistant is used to cryptographically sign his proof, a computer that the verifiers are not allowed to keep for an inspection. Craig further demanded that he be allowed to add a modifier of his initials to a signing statement. The signing tool used was the Electrum Bitcoin wallet, but Electrum developers reported no UK IP downloaded the verifying software signature file that would confirm the software's legitimacy.
The entire setup of these in person proof sessions was created in a suspect way, leading experts to believe that an in-person proof could easily have been stage managed and faked. The reason stated for the careful controls was to avoid early release of the proof, however this could have been done in a remote way using a method of cryptography where Gavin could have been able to receive a personal proof of a signature that he would still be unable to use to publicly prove to the world was real. It's possible that Gavin was unaware of this cryptographic method, but then the lack of knowledge would imply that Craig and everyone involved in the proving sessions were not very qualified in cryptography related subjects. Gavin has previously stated that he is not a cryptography expert.
As part of his proof, Craig also reintroduced some of the fabricated evidence that surfaced during the December rumors. To counter the critics who pointed out the uselessness of the evidence, he produced and quoted verbatim a supposedly third party report substantiating the evidence and personally and separately attacking the people, mainly Greg Maxwell, who called into question the veracity of the evidence. The report in question was sourced from a paid technical evidence consulting agency located in the same city as Craig. This agency, with no known connection or published history with Bitcoin, addressed the unrelated Bitcoin Core project quite specifically and negatively, with views consistent with Craig's previously stated views. The writing style of the report, Craig's ability to repeat it verbatim, and the geological proximity and nature of the firm publishing the report suggested his close involvement with its creation. Although he printed and passed around the report to reporters, Craig did not disclose any relationship with the formation of the report.
In May of 2016 Craig Wright lifted the embargo on the story and declared himself to be Satoshi, with a lengthy blog post about how he could cryptographically sign a statement to prove he is Satoshi. At the top of his post he added a statement to sign stating that he is Satoshi, encoded in an unreadable machine format, as would be fed into the signing process he then went on to describe. At the end of the post describing how to derive a cryptographic signature from a statement, he quoted a cryptographic signature which could be run through the described signature verification to show that it is Satoshi's signature. However the signature at the end of the post did not sign the statement at the beginning of the post. Instead it was a well known and completely unrelated old signature from Satoshi. This fact left unstated by Craig was soon discovered by fact-checkers who referenced the signature against Satoshi's previously known signatures.
Given the missing evidence and suspicious circumstances and history, his claim was widely called a scam, although Jon Matonis and Gavin Andresen maintained their positions, despite the evidence of malfeasance. Gavin did express surprise at the lack of public evidence, implying that he was previously led to believe that the evidence would be public and inspectable beyond the confines of the fixed private demonstration. Even so, when pressed Gavin demurred from backing off his claim. Gavin also does not mention any separate evidence that he said earlier he would demand, such as private correspondence that only he and Satoshi would have been privy to.
One point of skepticism mentioned by evaluators of Craig Wright's published works is that there are no commonalities found between his writing style and that of Satoshi Nakamoto's published works. Even trivial style choices like choosing double spaces after every period, a signature of Satoshi's, was absent from Craig Wright's writings. Suspiciously, after this point was widely mentioned, Craig Wright started going out of his way to add multiple spaces after his periods in his HTML blog posts. HTML by default does not visually display redundant white-space, but Craig added special default override code to force its display.
After the ensuing the adverse reactions to his claim, Craig Wright contacted the press and put out statements to the effect that he would produce compelling public evidence, as previously was tacitly promised. He claimed to have evidence that would put to rest any remaining doubt with an extraordinary new proof. He asks Gavin and BBC reporters to send funds to Satoshi's known addresses, so that he can send it back. However as the time ticks down on his promise, he backs out, with a nonsensical and wandering statement about being worried to provide actual proof.
Gavin and the BBC's money was never returned to them.
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online gambling australia asx video

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