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Game Matchups Preview Playoffs Round #2: Bills vs. Ravens

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 18th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Ravens. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long be prepared, these playoff posts are very long and highly detailed. If this is your first time reading, I hope you enjoy and can find the time to finish the whole thing.
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Ravens’ Passing Defense
After yet another great performance throwing the ball the Buffalo Bills are proving that they can beat anyone and everyone through the air. In their past 4 games the Bills have played the #11 (DEN), #18 (NWE), #6 (MIA), and #8 (IND) pass defenses, according to Football Outsiders Pass Defense DVOA, and have gone 108/153 (70.6%) for 1415 yards and a 12:2 TD:INT Ratio (Josh Allen’s stats here). Making the Bills recent run of success more impressive is that they have been successful against starkly different schemes, with tangible evidence the past two weeks. The Dolphins, who predominately run man coverage, were shredded for 388 passing yards, 124 of which came while targeting First Team All-Pro CB Xavien Howard. The Bills followed up this performance with Josh Allen picking apart the Colt’s Zone First Scheme for a Playoff leading passer rating of 121.6 (His regular season Passer Rating was 107.2). All of this leads to the following conclusion, with the way the Bills are playing right now there does not seem to be any specific scheme, team, or player that is capable of stopping the Bills’ passing attack.
Against the Ravens the Bills will need to find a way to beat Press Man Coverage. With one of the most physically gifted set of DBs in the NFL, headlined by Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens are particularly adept at this scheme. Their top two corners have both earned All-Pro honors at least once in their career primarily due to their physicality, but it is their ball skills which put them over the top. In 164 combined games Peters and Humphrey have 42 INTs, 20 FF, 11 FR, and 9 Defensive TDs. With the growing expectation that the Bills will primarily run 10 personnel (1RB, 4WR) the Ravens will likely spend the majority of Saturday in their Nickel package meaning that Jimmy Smith will join the previously mentioned CBs on the field. This sets up likely man matchups of Peters on Diggs, Smith on Brown, Humphrey in the Slot covering Beasley, and one of the two safeties (Chuck Clark, DeShon Elliott) on Gabe Davis. In this alignment the Ravens would be forced to choose between blitzing the safety not covering Davis or having that player shade deep over the top to Diggs side of the field. At the end of the day this will be a game of 1-on-1 matchups with the winner determined by which side can consistently beat the other.
The Ravens’ Press Man is able to excel because of their skill in the secondary but where it becomes one of the most dangerous schemes in the NFL is their proficiency and consistency in rushing the passer. For the 3rd straight season the Ravens lead the NFL in Blitz %, this year blitzing 44.1% of the time (Dolphins are 2nd at 40.6%). This facilitated an environment where the Ravens were able to pressure opposing QBs on 24.0% of their drop backs (NFL-11) and sack those QBs 39 times (NFL-14). The Press Man and Pass Rush work in concert by reducing the ability for offenses to complete quick short passes which then allows the pass rush more time to disrupt the QB. The Ravens will send anywhere from 5-8 players at the QB with the players primarily running up field being Patrick Queen (MLB) and Matt Judon (OLB) but when forced into Nickel concepts the Ravens will not hesitate to send either safety. All of this allowed the 2019 Ravens to put constant pressure on Josh Allen during their game last season ultimately resulting in 5 sacks for a loss (6 total) with 4 of them occurring with 5+ blitzers (#1, #2, #3, #4). It is however important to note that the Buffalo Bills offense from 2019 looks absolutely nothing like they do in 2020, in fact it is remarkable how drastically different they truly look.
This matchup comes down to the Bills receivers being able to beat whichever DB is lined up in front of them. If the Bills can accomplish this, then it will allow Allen to get rid of the ball before the Ravens pass rush is able to get to him. If the reverse were to occur it will create an environment where multiple blindside forced fumbles and/or interceptions may occur which would be incredibly difficult for the Bills to recover from. While on paper this matchup may be extremely close the reality is that the Bills simply have to many weapons that excel at beating man coverage for the Ravens to consistently stop. Stefon Diggs is widely regarded as one of the best receivers against man coverage in the entire NFL while the quickness of Cole Beasley provides for the ability to continuously beat man coverage in the intermediate range. Couple this with the Ravens struggles in covering TEs and RBs while still considering that the Ravens will need to find a way to contend with Gabe Davis and John Brown and the Bills, surprisingly, have a massive advantage here.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Defense
With Zack Moss going down with a season ending injury Wildcard weekend most Bills’ fans have spent this week wondering who RB2 will be behind Devin Singletary. Up until Thursday afternoon it was very clearly a three-horse race between T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, and Devonta Freeman but via a statement from Sean McDermott we now know the winner of that race. T.J. Yeldon will suit up on Saturday night and be the RB2 behind Devin Singletary. McDermott also did make it very clear that this did not preclude the Bills from activating Antonio Williams for the Ravens game. Regardless of if it is one or two backs behind Singletary we can say with a fair degree of certainty that he will be the Bellcow back moving forward for Buffalo, meaning you can expect him to see north of 75% of the offensive snaps. One concern with that is in games where Singletary has exceeded 60% of offensive snaps (6) in 2020 he has a Y/A of 3.6 and in all other games he has a Y/A of 5.1. Let me make this abundantly clear, and see all of my previous posts for proof, I believe that the majority of the issues running the ball in 2020 are due to the blocking up front and not the RBs carrying the ball however, this stark contrast in Y/A should be a concern moving forward for a Bills’ team who at times will need to show they can move the ball on the ground if they want to continue winning football games.
This section now lends itself to a breakdown of the backups to Singletary on Saturday, one we know, and one is a maybe. With that in mind we start with T.J. Yeldon who has demonstrated the ability to be a competent runner of the football throughout his career with an acceptable 4.1 Y/A. Yeldon possesses exceptional agility for a player that is 6’1” 225lb and at times in his career has been one of the more dangerous receiving options in the NFL coming out of the backfield. The main knock Bills’ fans have on Yeldon is his fumbling where he has lost the ball 7 times on 677 career touches (1 per 97), for context Singletary has 5 on 374 (1 per 75). Next to discuss is the new darling of Bills Mafia, undrafted rookie Antonio Williams. One of the bigger unknowns on the Bills’ roster, Williams busted onto the scene against Miami with 83 all-purpose yards on 13 touches for 2 TDs in just one half. Out of UNC the 5’11” 215lb RB, who looks and plays much bigger, possesses exceptional lateral quickness and does not shy away from contact making him a dangerous player once he gets to the second level. Also, while it is highly improbable, we see him Saturday, I would be remised to not mention the signing of 2-time Pro Bowler Devonta Freeman who just a few years back was considered one of the best RBs in the game. Freeman suffered a groin injury in 2018 which required surgery which has since deprived him of some of the quickness that made him one of the biggest home run threats in the league. Still, Freeman provides a veteran presence with gas left in the tank, at just 28, he could be an integral part of the Bills’ Playoff push. All these players may play a factor if the Bills continue to advance in the playoffs, but Bills Mafia should fully expect T.J. Yeldon to do so on Saturday night.
If and when the Bills do run the ball, they will be doing so against a team which ranks 26th in the NFL (The Bills rank 24th) in Y/A against at 4.6. The Ravens also rank 27th in both 20+ A (1 per 32) and 40+ A (1 per 127) which is indicative of their blitz dependent defense. When the Ravens defense aligns with the proper gap they typically bring the ball carrier down in the backfield as the team has combined for 71 TFLs but when they miss ball carriers tend to pick up chunk yardage leaving their secondary to clean up free runners. This of course assumes the ball carrier can bypass the Ravens’ 3-4 alignment which is championed by one of the deeper DLs in all of football. On the right side is, long time Broncos DE, Derek Wolfe who typically lines up somewhere from the B to C gap and is one of the better run stuffers at the position. In the middle is the behemoth known as Brandon Williams who specializes as a NT, a dying position in the NFL that Williams still excels at. Lastly left of Williams is Calais Campbell who while listed as a DE plays more like a DT because of the blitz packages which the Ravens use. Campbell may be 34 and towards the end of his career but this exceptionally physical and athletic lineman will threaten Bills LG Ike Boettger all night.
The last group of players to cover for the Ravens is one of the most athletically gifted groups in the entire NFL, the Ravens LBs. Strength, Speed, Quickness, you name it, the 6 primary LBs on this team have it all. They are headlined by 21-year-old MLB Patrick Queen who ran a blazing 4.5 at the rookie combine in 2020. About as promising as they come Queen lead the Ravens in Tackles and TFLs and will challenge Josh Allen on any QB Draws the Bills may attempt. Next to him is either Pass Rush specialist Matt Judon or Pass Coverage specialist Tyus Bowser. Judon earned his second straight Pro Bowl selection because of his propensity to pressure the QB with his 4th straight season of 6+ sacks from the OLB position. Bowser, not nearly the pass rusher Judon is, instead has 3 INTs this season and an astounding 42.2 passer rating against (On just 15 targets). There are other players of note like ILB L.J. Fort, long time vet Pernell McPhee, or even the highly sought after Yannick Ngakoue but all you really need to know is that regardless of pass or run this unit has the ability to get into the backfield or chase down players that get outside of it.
EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Ravens’ Passing Offense
Against the Colts the Bills’ struggled at times against the pass with the most damage coming from the Colts’ TEs and the 6’4” rookie WR Michael Pittman. In isolation Phillip Rivers 300+ pass yard day implies that the secondary struggled covering their responsibilities, in reality the issue lay elsewhere. Rivers finished the 2020 season with a Time-to-Throw of just 2.52s (NFL-6) which he continued into the playoffs making it difficult for the Bills to get any pressure on the Indy QB. In fact, it was so difficult that the Bills had only 1 QB hit the entire game. This is the same team that in their last 6 games, post their Bye Week, was averaging 5.5 QB Hits per game. With the Bills running the Palms Scheme they are highly dependent on either pressure or extended Time-to-Throw in order to get into their secondary transitions, neither of those happened on Saturday which is why the Colts were so successful through the air.
Against the Ravens the Bills should be able to get more players in the vicinity of Lamar Jackson than they did Rivers. Of the 41 players with more than 128 pass attempts in 2020 Lamar ranked 38th in Time-To-Throw holding onto the ball for an average of 2.98 seconds. This was a primary reason that Lamar was sacked 29 times (NFL-13) and fumbled the ball 10 times. Obviously, the challenge here is that while teams can occasionally get pressure on Lamar, and even bring him down, the counter of his rushing ability poses a bigger threat (More on that in the rushing section). Credit is still due to Lamar and his OL who lost 2019 All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley to an ankle injury just 6 games into the season and had to flip their RT, Orlando Brown Jr., over to LT and plug and play from there. While the main threat of Lamar is undoubtedly his legs, he did finish 2020 with 2757 passing yards, 26 Passing TDs, and just 9 INTs by utilizing his receiving weapons to the best of their abilities.
At receiver the Ravens don’t have one imposing weapon, but they do have a slew of good options. First and foremost of these options is 2019 1st round draft pick Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who some tried to drop the “Bust” tag on in the middle of the season after he had a 4-game stretch where he caught just 6 balls for 55 yards and 1 TD. In opposition to that ideal try taking those 4 games out of the season and then pacing it to 16 games, when doing that Browns’ season would be 65 catches for 892 yards and 9 TDs, a solid season for any NFL player. He also answered the bell Wildcard weekend raking in 7 catches for 109 yards against a stout Tennessee secondary. Outside of him the only other receivers of note are Willie Snead, a vet who built his name in New Orleans and is a solid option at WR, Devin Duvernay, a lightning quick 2020 3rd round draft pick, and Miles Boykin, their big bodied WR who has a knack for bodying opposing defenders. But by far their most dangerous weapon in the passing game is not a WR but instead their TE, one of the best in the league, Mark Andrews. Andrews is a walking Tonka Truck that is built the same way as Dawson Knox with better hands and a more complete set of receiving skills. This is Lamar’s check down option which is a primary reason he shared the team lead in receptions (58) and finished second in receiving yards (701) meaning he should be the Bills’ biggest concern in the air on Saturday night.
For the Bills to dominate this battle they will need to get pressure on Lamar while simultaneously maintaining contain to avoid him escaping the pocket. Assuming they can accomplish this, which is a tall order, they will need to avoid letting all 3 of the Ravens primary receivers beat them deep and put a big body, say Tremaine Edmunds, on Mark Andrews. RBs have yet to prove a consistent threat for the Ravens through the air in 2020 accounting for just 15.8% of targets and 18.3% of catches but are something to monitor Saturday night as the Bills try to contain Lamar while putting a spy in the middle to avoid a big run. Buffalo must win this matchup, and should, if they have any chance of winning this game. A takeaway or two through the air wouldn’t hurt either.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Offense
The Bills had no answers against the Colts run game Wildcard weekend giving up the most rushing yards they have since the Cardinals game on November 15, 2020. Most of Buffalo’s success came when the Colts most powerful back, Jonathan Taylor, was running the ball holding him to just 3.7 Y/A but they had issues with the quicker players. Nyheim Hines only rushed the ball 6 times but accounted for 75 yards on carries of 4, 1, 29, 3, 33, and 5. This stat line should worry a Bills’ fan base that is hoping the Bills can beat a team stacked with shifty players and advance to their first AFC Championship Game since 1993.
The Ravens offense is built off an option scheme the likes of which the NFL has never seen. This offense can execute everything and anything on the ground and it all starts with QB Lamar Jackson. On option plays the QB will generally key off one defender and read which “option” said player chooses to defend. An example, a designed handoff to the right side of the line except all linemen wash down to the left and leave the defensive end unblocked. When this occurs it forces the defensive end to choose between scraping down to the RB taking the supposed handoff or to maintain contain on the QB (See example here). Lamar Jackson is an expert at reading such defenders and even in the rare event where he keeps the ball when he should hand it off, he has the athleticism to beat the defender to the edge. When handing the ball off he primarily will be handing it to Gus Edwards or J.K. Dobbins. Gus the Bus is bigger than Melvin Gordon but plays with the speed of Alvin Kamara which has allowed him to maintain a Y/A of 5.0+ in each of his first 3 seasons. J.K. Dobbins is the smaller, faster, and quicker of the two which makes for a good change of pace from Edwards. This three headed monster has created for the Ravens one of the best rushing attacks in NFL history which continues to defy the mantra that the NFL is just a passing league.
The second part of the Ravens that make them so deadly running the football is their offensive line. At the two guard spots are Bradley Bozeman (LG) and Ben Powers (RG) who each possess incredible strength which allows them control defenders at the time of the snap. Neither is exceptionally gifted at pulling or blocking in the open field but their strength couples nicely with the athleticism of the Ravens backfield. Between them is Center Patrick Mekari who took the starting Job from Matt Skura midway through the season after snapping issues forced him to the bench. Mekari is a big bruiser like his guards Bozeman and Powers which gives the Ravens just south of half a ton of Man in the middle of their line. At RT is veteran D.J. Fluker who was chosen 11th overall by the San Diego Chargers in 2013. Fluker now on his 4th team in 8 seasons is a competent RT crushing the scales at nearly 350lb but is dealing with a nagging knee injury which is something to monitor. Last is LT Orlando Brown who was laughed at for only putting up 14 on the bench press at his combine three years ago and has quieted the doubters by being named to his 2nd straight Pro Bowl. In all this is an above average OL built perfectly for a Lamar Jackson lead offense.
Buffalo will need to slow down the Ravens run game if they have any chance of winning on Saturday and this may be an odd thing to read, but the Bills defense actually lends itself to do just that. There has been discussion all week on Reddit, Twitter, and everywhere else of who will play the spy for the Bills against the Ravens and while they assuredly will occasionally spy, with Edmunds, Milano, or Poyer, the Bills’ Palms Scheme is actually proficient at slowing down mobile QBs. In this scheme the Bills will have multiple defenders zoned in the middle of the field, effectively playing a coverage spy on Lamar while also holding an advantage on the outside via their tradeoff concepts. In the event Lamar does break outside the pocket the Bills defense allows the boundary guarding CB to step forward to Lamar while the safety over the top takes the receiver. This is how the Bills defense is built and while an incredibly difficult scheme to run it is one the Bills have mastered. Don’t take this description of the Bills’ defense to say they will nullify Lamar Jackson but realize that the Bills have the tools to somewhat contain him, that is assuming they play a perfect game.
EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Ravens’ Special Teams
Throughout 2020 the Bills’ average starting field position was their own 30.7-yard line (NFL-6). Against the Colts their average starting field position was their own 15.4-yard line. The Bills would obviously go on to win this game, but field position has proved to be an indicator of success in 2020 as each team finishing within the Top-8 made the playoffs. This leads to a defense of one of the Bills most polarizing players, Andre Roberts, who has been integral to the Bills’ success in this measure and the insinuation that he was a major contributing factor in the Bills’ field position issues Wildcard weekend is not backed up by any tangible evidence. In the first half of the Colts’ game the Bills’ average starting field position was the 7.8-yard line primarily because of an exceptional Colts’ ST unit and the bend, don’t break, style of the Bills’ defense. How did each of the Colts’ first 6 drives end? Punt downed at the Bills’ 3, Magical kickoff dies on the Bills’ 15, Punt fair catch at the Bills’ 11, Kickoff returned by Roberts’ to the 12 with a 6 yard penalty bringing it back to the Bills’ 6, Colt’s Turnover on Downs at the Bills’ 4, Colts kneel before halftime. For the Bills’ this game was an aberration, and one I have confidence they will clean up against the Ravens, mainly because I have confidence in Andre Roberts.
Outside of the return game the Special Teams group for Buffalo continues to be one of the best in the NFL. Corey Bojorquez rightfully received a vote to the All-Pro team, and it could be argued he deserved more. Bojo punted 4 times Wildcard Weekend averaging 47.0 Y/P with a Net Y/P of 43.5. These numbers would have been significantly higher had he not purposely drilled in I20 punt which only required a 29-yard kick. At kicker is another player who arguably deserved some All-Pro consideration, rookie Tyler Bass. This kid has been on complete fire the past 10 weeks going 42/43 on XPs and 18/19 on FGs with his only miss coming from 61 yards out. I was personally skeptical on Bass coming into the season, but my goodness, this kid is a stud. There is one more player on the Bills’ Special Teams that got an All-Pro vote, Tyler Matakevich. A guru at the position the man nicknamed “Dirty Red” is around the ball carrier on every kick and tossing people around on every return. Bills’ fans know more than most that Special Teams players can have a huge impact on a team and the Bills’ have a ton of great ones.
The Ravens also have one of the better Special Teams units in the NFL. For most of the season Devin Duvernay handled KR while James Proche took care of PR however, in recent weeks Duvernay has taken control of both. Averaging 11.5 Y/PR and 27.5 Y/KR, with a 93-yard return for a TD, Duvernay is a dynamic rookie with open field speed that few can match. Just like the Colts game this will likely effect the Bills’ short kick strategy meaning a lot of touchbacks when the Bills kick off. Punting for the Ravens is the 38-year old veteran Sam Koch who the Ravens have under contract until he is 40. Koch had his lowest Y/P (44.5) in a decade but finished 8th in the NFL with a Net Y/P of 42.8, a difference of just 1.7. Koch rarely allows players to return the ball and when they do, they are averaging just 4.8 Y/R. Last is the best to ever do it, Kicker Justin Tucker. Tucker has a 90.7 FG% in the regular season throughout his career with a career long of 61. As automatic as they come if you see Tucker on the field there is basically no tradition Bills’ fans can do that would make him miss.
EDGE: Bills 👏
Why We Will Lose
The Ravens have steadily improved the entire season and are peaking at the perfect time. Improving their odds of advancing is that the Ravens’ strengths matchup well against the Bills’ weaknesses. On defense the Ravens excel against the pass and have been able to put pressure on every QB they have played in 2020. That pressure should be extra concerning for a Bills’ team that has seen their star QB struggle at holding onto the football, now realize that the Ravens had a combined 25 forced fumbles in the regular season and start panicking. In reality the Ravens only weakness on defense is against the run which is something that they shouldn’t particularly care about when playing a Bills team who has struggled running the ball and should find a more difficult go of things after losing their RB2.
On offense the Ravens continue to be one of the best running teams in history. Whether it be Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, or Lamar Jackson doesn’t matter because whoever has the ball will be able to effectively move it on the ground. This means consistent yardage with the occasional big run sprinkled in. That continuous success ultimately will keep the ball out of the hands of Buffalo’s offense while putting up points for Baltimore which is a typical strategy against a Bills team that has struggled against the run in 2020. Making matters worse is the Bills’ can’t just bail out to stop the run because if they did attempt this Lamar Jackson, the 2019 MVP, has shown the ability to make big plays through the air and will do so against this Bills’ team. The Ravens offense is built to beat a team like Buffalo, as is their defense, which is a recipe for a Baltimore victory.
Why We Will Win
The 2019 Bills lost to the Ravens 24-17. The 2020 Bills are a significantly improved version of that team with an MVP caliber QB. The Bills offense had no answer for the Ravens pressure last season which is a primary reason they went out and got a receiver that could specifically help with handling that scheme. That receiver is your first team All-Pro WR, Stefon Diggs, who has dominated every single player that has tried to guard him this season. You factor him in with Buffalo’s other 3 options at the position and the Bills suddenly have the ability to put up points against a Ravens’ defense that is one of the best in the NFL.
On defense the Bills may not have had the same success in 2020 that they did in 2019 but they have continually improved all season long. This game comes down to the Bills’ ability to contain Lamar Jackson and a healthy Matt Milano makes that slightly easier. Dark horse candidate to have big game is A.J. Epenesa who the Bills coaching staff has surely coached up to not do to much and instead do his 1/11th. And that is just what every single Bills’ player must do, their 1/11th, do that and you won’t stop Lamar Jackson, but you can reduce the damage he inflicts. If Buffalo accomplishes that your Bills will be heading to their first AFC Championship game in nearly 30 years.
Prediction: Bills 27 – Ravens 24
This is going to be a close game whichever way you slice it. On paper the Ravens seem to have the matchups but in reality, the Bills seem to have the ability to win them. Because this will be so close this game likely comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes, inclusive of turnovers. With the way the Bills are playing right now you must trust Josh Allen more than Lamar Jackson to hold onto the ball. At the end of the night though this will be a battle of heavyweights with the last one standing being one game away from Super Bowl Sunday.
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Dynasty Deep Work

I recently read Cal Newport’s book Deep Work.
To summarize his work in two sentences is to do it a disservice, but I think the gist is this:
Deep work, or “the ability to focus without distraction on a cognitively demanding task” is a profoundly important skill, which enables much of today’s most valuable work. Yet, the constant blur of email, social media, and the internet inhibits our ability to go deep—indeed, many have lost the skill entirely.
Suffice it to say, I find this an apt description of who I am as a dynasty fantasy football player (not to mention that dynasty may be one such distraction from more important work in my life). I have aggregated Twitter lists of (fantasy) football accounts which I endlessly scroll through. I peruse this subreddit, the DLF forums, and dynasty discords, constantly skimming others’ insights.
Now, to be fair, I think this has made me pretty successful at dynasty.
I’m ahead of the curve on many sleepers. I rostered James Robinson, Myles Gaskin, Gabriel Davis, Darnell Mooney, Robert Tonyan, and Logan Thomas on two or more of my five dynasty teams this past year, and added all for free (or close to it).
Outside of drafting N’Keal Harry in two leagues in 2019, I’ve drafted fairly well.
That being said, doing so takes a lot of time, is unfulfilling, and adds little value.
Moreover, although finding a reason to be involved in football year-round is great, I find little value in staying engaged (at least in the shallow, surface-level way) from between when the regular season ends until about a week before the NFL draft.
So, I guess this is my way of announcing (to nobody in particular, at least nobody who should care), that I plan to take a break from dynasty reddit/TwitteSleeper, and that I’d encourage you all to do the same.
That being said, to atone for the fact that I’ve made you read a wall of text, written with a snobbish, somewhat self-important tone despite its relative unimportance, I’d like to consolidate some of the best quantitative and qualitative insights I have on fantasy football to keep you all from wasting as much shallow time on fantasy football as I have.
I also do this to hopefully spark some idea for a “deep” dynasty project (akin to Jordan McNamara’s Analytics of Dynasty or Peter Howard’s database) and possibly find collaborators. I’m thinking that perhaps a public database of ‘21 prospects which consolidates tweets/articles written about those prospects by notable analysts (film, analytics, or otherwise) could be helpful.
Here are helpful statistics for...
Though these are the “stickiest” statistics, they still only have a R^2 of around 40% (with some variance by position). Peter Howard talks about them all here (around minute 85).
This sounds trite, but it’s not. Good RBs are generally good as rookies (some possible indicators of “being good” are yards per team attempt (RBs with two top-12 season average around 1.4 YPTA in their rookie year, minute 89), rushing yards over expectation, or praise from film analysts like JMoyer and Matt Waldman). Moreover, most long-term stud TEs generally breakout in their first or second year.
Again, not the end-all, be-all, but this is why you pick up Robert Tonyan and Logan Thomas instead of Jace Sterberger, Jeremy Sprinkle, and Thaddeus Moss.
​
This year that could have netted you Josh Jacobs, Ronald Jones, Terry McLaurin, and Calvin Ridley at the beginning of the year, and Tee Higgins and Myles Gaskin during the middle of the season. (Who knows if all those will turn out to be good buys, but most of them seem to have seen their value rise significantly in dynasty after when they were identified as good buys.)
Of course, all of this is just an aid. None of these indicators are deterministic or have flawless records. But, the nice thing is, they can help you account for earlier misses. For instance, if you—like most of breakout age twitter—faded Terry McLaurin as a rookie, when he had an incredible PFF grade midseason and at the end of the rookie year, plus > 2.0 yards per route run, plus was valued higher in redraft than dynasty, those all should’ve told you to buy Terry McLaurin aggressively.
Here are a few narratives I FADE and BUY:
FADE coach-centric narratives *
* Unless with the current personnel (meaning offensive starters and OC), that coach as clearly demonstrated and articulated their preference (for instance, Carrol and Zimmer’s desire to establish the run), I find you often lose more value than you gain by making predictions and projections based on qualitative coaching tendencies.
BUY talent
(That being said) FADE unproductive rookies
BUY that the startup is the easiest place to accrue value (and trade for future rookie picks).
FADE “can’t stay on the field” narratives, namely someone being “injury prone” or having “character concerns.” * Here’s why (part 1) (part 2).
* Like always, there are a few exceptions. Soft-tissue injuries (particularly an achilles injury) can be significant. Talk of a player being deep in the drug-prevention program (particularly if they’re a highly-valued player) and an indefinite suspension is a real threat is worth paying attention to.
BUY far-out rookie picks.
BUY “base rates” narratives.
FADE narratives which use one metric / threshold to encourage not drafting a player (rookies, in particular).
BUY narratives which use multiple metrics / thresholds to characterize a rookie class as a whole. (Basically, what I’m saying is that context is important.)
FADE college awards as being anything more than an indicator that someone is a good college player. (Also FADE conference-driven takes.)
FADE consensus “buy lows / buy highs”
So, on a related note…
BUY “buy high / sell high" narratives
BUY PPR is the best scoring system.
Whew! That was a long post. Hopefully some of it was helpful. I’ll end by encouraging some great Twitter follows (though again, I’d encourage simply taking a break, like I’m about to do, from that entire world until about a week before the draft).
AdamHarstad
You’ll get smarter if you follow him, and be a better a dynasty manager. Incredibly kind, too, which is arguably more important. If you want to avoid falling victim to Berkson’s and other types of selection of bias (well, as much as you can), or simply marvel in awe at someone with an encyclopedic knowledge of PFR, he’s your guy.
JMoyerFB
He’s the (RB) film analyst I most trust. Underrated follow in this community, I think. (MattWaldman also does great work, but I can’t keep up with his endless stream of content. MarkSchofield is great for QBs.)
RayGQue
Great devy film analyst. As the rest of my post indicates, I obviously skew toward metrics/analytics. He’s a great counterbalance. (Though they all vary in how film-centric their analysis is, I’d put devydeets, angelo_fantasy, ProFootballPSI, and JordanReid in the same category. 7RoundsInApril is also a great follow for insight into draft prospects.)
Not for everybody, but absolutely worth a follow:
DevyEusuf
All-star Twitter user. Receipts for days, and he’s right more often than anyone else I know when it comes to evaluating draft prospects. His “fuck off” quote tweets are hilarious (or possibly humiliating / infuriating if you’re on the other side.) If you don’t want that energy, then don’t follow, but at least check out what he has to say.
Fantasy_Mansion
Matt Kelley draws the ire of many on this subreddit for how often he trumpets speed score and breakout age, but there’s a reason he does that: they’re good metrics. He’s built a fantasy football media empire, and playerprofiler is an incredible free tool (which he built).
A couple quick hitters (in list form):
evansilva and RyanMc23
If you’re not following Evan (if only for his weekly takeaways during the regular season) and Ryan (if only for his DLF ADP data), what are you doing? Fantasy giants.
MattHarmon_BYB
Reception perception is awesome.
sidelinehustle
Great at identifying some underrated / good route-runners.
GrahamBarfield
His yards created model is great.
SamWallace_FF
Great at spotting talent.
HaydenWinks
Great points over expected model.
LordReebs
SigmundBloom
MiKeMeUpP
Ihartitz
ChadParsonsNFL
dwainmcfarland
ClutchFantasy
JerrickBackous
DFBeanCounter
MetricScout
CPatrickNFL
PatThorman
DBro_FFB
ChrisAllenFFWX
ZWKfootball
32BeatWriters
JetPackGalieo
jlarkytweets
goldengate_ff
FairlyOdd_FF
FFNewsletter
FF_RTDB
DynastyJacobian
Justin_14P
Whew! That’s all for now, folks. Also, the formatting copied weirdly, so I'm sorry about that.
submitted by rockthefield to DynastyFF [link] [comments]

Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
submitted by jeromeBDpowell to SPACs [link] [comments]

RB#20’s Official 2021 NFL Mock Draft v1.0 (With Trades.)

  1. JAC – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson – Eh… nothing much to say here. This is the only thing that is a done deal about the draft, the world knows who and what Trevor Lawrence is.
  2. NYJ – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU – I don’t like this pick, and I don’t think Wilson should go this high, in fact he is trending towards becoming my QB6. Robert Saleh was linked to a 49ers team that did extensive research on Wilson as they were (are) prepared to draft him at 12 overall. The pick could be Fields – should be Fields – but I have Wilson as the QB for NYJ, even though I don’t agree with it. As I’ve said several times over, I don’t mock by where I project my own personal Big Board, I mock based on what I believe teams will do based on various factors. I hope Douglas trades out of this pick or manages to land Deshaun Watson. Anyone can succeed in the right system so here’s to hoping Wilson proves me wrong as Jets fans deserve better than enduring another half-decade of bad QB play.
  3. HOU via MIA, thru HOU - Proposed Pre-Draft Trade. MIA Receives: QB Deshaun Watson; HOU Receives: QB Tua Tagovailoa, 1.03 Draft Selection, 3.82 Draft Selection, 2022 1st Round Selection, 2022 3rd Round Selection. HOU Selects – Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama. Quite the haul for Houston, Miami receives the best player in the trade though so they have the edge in the win column. Setting the value on Tua is tricky. He could be viewed as a high 2nd, or even up-to a mid-1st in terms of my projected value of how Houston could value him, so in a sense, the trade could be viewed as 3 firsts and additional compensation for Deshaun. I like this move for both teams, as it gives Houston a QB with potential and they can move on from their disgruntled star and I like the selection of Devonta Smith too. Make no mistake though, Miami wins this trade by a wide margin as they take back the best player of whom is Top 10 at the most important position. Reuniting Tua with one of his security blankets at Alabama, the Slim Reaper would be an immediate impact player on a team devoid of a go-to option.
  4. ATL – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida – As you have heard me state enough times by now, Pitts is receiving an astronomical grade by many and isn’t solely viewed relatively to the position he plays but instead as an offensive player that no LB is going to be able to cover once he reaches his prime, a large body that Safeties will have a hard time bringing down and has the speed to blow past Slot CB’s. I don’t like to use the term generational talent, but if anyone is deserving of this claim from this class, it should be Pitts. We are starting to see the beginning of another trend in the NFL where coaches view their weapons as “positionless” and Kyle is a prime example of that trend. In the next few years, I expect WR’s to become more committee based, and TE’s like Pitts to increase in value. It will start at the highschool level and recruiters will look for players like Kyle and I expect them to start going higher on draft boards. RB’s, consequently, may become more valuable once again as NFL Offenses will only become more complex in scheme. Atlanta’s moves thus far seem to indicate that the team will continue to build around Matt Ryan and possibly not draft a QB with this pick so I will hold off on mocking a QB to them with this selection, though it’s early in the process and Justin Fields seems like an obvious candidate.
  5. CIN – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon – There, of course, has been a lot of talk about Rashan Slater going ahead of Sewell and I do have Slater over Sewell personally but I do think Sewell will go first. I think many feel that I “hate” Sewell as I do not view him as this can’t miss prospect but I do have Sewell as an elite prospect. He’s a fine OT, I just don’t have him higher than I had Thomas and Wills from last season. I’ve seen several instances of sloppy play from Sewell where he holds, gets tired as the games progress, starts to forget his technique, leans his head in, and there’s also several instances where I see him absolutely make an astonishing play that very few OL can make especially at his size. I don’t believe this will be the first instance of Cincinnati selecting OL in this draft, as C and LG need to be upgraded extensively. Where Sewell and Williams play is irrelevant next season, the interior of the line needs to be upgraded arguable more than RT and Round 2 would be a great spot to address one of the two positions named.
  6. PHI – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU – Can’t believe Philly may go WR yet again but this is also a new coaching staff so BPA regardless of position could be the way to go, after all, the players on this team are not Nick Sirianni’s guys. I am about 50/50 on one (or both) of Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts being dealt and this selection could be a QB, I was much higher on projecting Wentz to be traded to the Colts or even the Bears previously but have cooled now that Pederson is gone. At this time, projecting that they keep the selection, even with other needs on the board, Chase becomes the odds-on favorite to wind up on the Eagles. We have seen Howie Roseman deal players before once the former HC has been fired, and the roster could look dramatically different by the time April roles around.
  7. SF via DET – Proposed Draft Day Trade DET Receives: 1.12 Draft Selection, 2.43 Draft Selection, 2022 SF 2nd Round Selection; SF Receives: 1.07 Draft Selection. SF Selects – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State. one of the best things to happen with the Matthew Stafford Trade is the report that GM Brad Holmes built with several FO’s that were interested in upgrading at QB and this will be instrumental in moving out of this spot. I don’t think he will want to move down too far, as he would still like to land one of the elite talents in the class, and SF seems like the perfect trading partner. The value is close here. I think it’s so marginal that it should be insignificant in the long run. 2.43 is a great selection, the 2022 pick could easily be flipped to a 1st Rounder but that’s also dependent on what SF is able to do in free agency, so that 2nd Rounder could be high enough in 2022 that it will still be the same value as a late first and that’s what I ultimately would project as SF seems headed for a down year in the NFC West. I think this is a great trade for both teams, SF slightly winning as they are able to land a QB that they don’t need to rush into a starting role and can closely monitor his improvement before moving on from Jimmy G, rather than hastily rushing into things. Fields is a great leader, great athlete and the more I have watched of him the more I like him as a QB. Some of the throws and plays he makes are insane. Great move for SF to land one of the Top QB Prospects.
  8. CAR – Rashan Slater, LT, Northwestern – It’s not being talked about too much at this time but one of the big needs heading into the off-season for Carolina is Left-Tackle as Russell Okung is a pending UFA. Whether they bring him back or turn to another option in FA affects this pick but Carolina will be in a great spot to address this position in the draft. Slater projects to be able to play 5 positions, a very versatile OL but also an exceptional pass-protector. I project that Okung will be allowed to walk and Slater slides into the vacant LT spot as a Day 1 starter.
  9. WFT via DEN – Proposed Draft Day Trade DEN Receives: DL Jonathan Allen, 1.19 Draft Selection, 3.74 Draft Selection, 2022 WFT 2nd Round Selection; WFT Receives: 1.09 Draft Selection, 2022 DEN 4th Round Selection. WFT Selects – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State. Again, as with the Houston-Miami Trade, the hard part is projecting the perceived value of a current player. I would put a 3rd Round Value on Jonathan in this case, fits an immediate need on the DL, so the compensation is essentially a swap of 1sts, 2 3rds and a 2nd for a 4th in 2022. Not bad to move up for a QB that I would project to develop behind Alex Smith in 2021. Lance is a difficult one to project where he lands. At times I have him as QB2, at other times I have him as QB4. Mainly, my assessment is of his physical traits and what he can become, the quick release that he has is on another level. I could potentially see Lance moving down draft boards as well but for now I will be conservative in my projection.
  10. DAL – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State – Can you tell how heavy the offensive talent is in this draft class? We are now at the 10th pick and we see the first defensive player selected. Micah is an absolute stud. The next great LB in the NFL, can play any LB Role in any scheme. Moves around fluid, fast, just a unicorn who brings forth production and leadership to the NFL. A cornerstone to build your franchise around. Can cover, can stop the run, has the strength and size to get physical with TE’s at the line, has the speed to cover sideline-to-sideline with RB’s, gets in the backfield, a center-fielder that can do it all. This is a steal of a pick for Dallas being able to acquire a prospect that would normally go higher in a normal draft class but is pushed down further due to the overwhelming amount of talent on offense.
  11. NYG – Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama – Yet another defensive talent, of whom would normally go higher drops to the Giants. They have a nice piece at one CB position with James Bradberry but Surtain really gives them a dynamic of having the potential of 2 Top CB’s playing opposite one another. Surtain would fit in very well at RCB and while the other position I would consider here is EDGE, I don’t feel too strongly about this class, although Kwity Paye would be an intriguing fit here, but value CB a bit more in this scheme.
  12. DET via SF – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama – Detroit could be looking at a brand new WR Corps next year as the only two – yes TWO WR’s under contract heading into free agency are Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison. Campbell and Holmes are looking for players who absolutely love football and there’s no denying Waddle’s heart, playing in the National Championship game after suffering a season-ending ankle injury during a year that looked to be a breakout for the star WR. I would hope to see smarter decisions being made in the future of Jaylen as it was extremely foolish to play in that game, however Jaylen gives Detroit a vertical threat it has not had in quite some time and could see time as a Punt Returner, thus making Jamal Agnew expendable in free agency.
  13. LAC – Alex Leatherwood, LT, Alabama – This may be a bit surprising to see Alex this high, as he really didn’t do anything to set himself apart at the Senior Bowl, and there are certainly more athletic OL’s in this class. That shouldn’t really disqualify him from being a target of HC Brandon Staley and OC Joe Lombardi, since it’s really going to be about one thing for the Chargers drafting an LT- Pass-Protection. You know what you have in Alex, it’s that of a high-quality pass-protector. Perfect for what the Chargers need, nothing flashy, just gets the job done. Alex has been mocked all over the place but I firmly expect him to transition to an LT at the next level and I feel he is a good fit for this staff and this team.
  14. MIN – Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan – I’ve been told several times that the Vikings won’t go EDGE with this pick because of how the staff views them or something along those lines and they have passed on the positional group….yada yada yada… anyway… the class itself offers thin quality among the group as we see the first one taken outside the Top 10. It’s just not a good class for them so may as well select one of the top ones, especially if it’s a dire need, and Kwity has amazing athletic traits with a high upside to produce at the next level in a base 4-3 scheme. This could be one of the better fits in the draft class of Paye to Minnesota. Essentially, I view Paye in the image of Ziggy Ansah when he declared for the draft. Raw, but huge potential. Could be a candidate for DROY as the scheme and coaching staff will maximize his talent.
  15. NE – Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa – We are in the area of where teams are drafting players that best fit their scheme and capitalize on their return. Collins is an LB that fits New England like a glove. Has the size and play that Bill Belichick looks for from his LB’s. As both him and some of his disciples have stated several times over, when you find one of the LB’s that fit this defense, you try to acquire them as there are only a handful that come around every year. Collins is a player I see going anywhere between 15-50 in the draft, to best fit a team running the Fairbanks-Bullough 3-4.
  16. ARZ – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech – I don’t have Caleb as an elite prospect and therefore I don’t have him being drafted inside the Top 10 as I’ve seen on most mocks. I do have him as a very very good prospect and one of the better CB’s in this class. He fits in very well to a number of schemes as an outside CB and is a perfect compliment to Arizona’s defense that can develop into a CB1 to replace Patrick Peterson. I just want to note how truly special PP has been, as it’s been how many years that this conversation has come up about replacing him and the team has yet to do it. Love the potential of Farley, a great situation to wind up in.
  17. LVR – Christian Darrisaw, OL, Virginia Tech – I firmly believe that Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden would have selected Mekhi Becton last year over Henry Ruggs if the Jets passed on him. They were absolutely smitten with him and his athleticism. I see Darrisaw being held in that same regard this year, and he doesn’t have to start at OT right away he can play a role on the interior of the OL and move to OT in 2022 but it’s great to have the flexibility of drafting a lineman who offers immediate help in areas of need for your team. Gruden was disappointed with Trent Brown at RT this past season, tried to move on from Gabe Jackson during the 2020 off-season so Darrisaw would have a role to contribute early.
  18. MIA – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida – Kyle Pitts wasn’t the only weapon Florida had last year and Toney also made Kyle Trask’s job significantly easier in being a first-year starter. Toney had a nice Senior Bowl, had some costly drops but shouldn’t be too severe of a flag at this time and in any event any concerns are outweighed by the fact that he is a match-up problem and can take the top off a defense. I would much rather have Deshaun Watson and Toney than any of the top WR’s and Tua from this class so Miami would be wise to pull the trigger on a trade for Deshaun.
  19. DEN via WFT – Greg Rousseau, EDGE, Miami – Obviously not as high on Rousseau as many, he’s a very raw prospect but there are also much worse draft picks to be made at this point in time. He can develop in a way similar as to how I saw Jason Pierre-Paul develop when the Giants drafted him and that’s someone that I liken to Rousseau as a comp in terms of how both players came out and athleticism. Rousseau can grow into a dynamic defensive player and learn within a veteran locker room with other key players to help mentor him while he learns the game.
  20. CHI – Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia – I like the fit and the player. Azeez would do better in a 3-4 but can see him playing in a 4-3 as well with some added weight. I think there is potential for Chicago to acquire either a veteran QB this off-season or even one in the second round. Back to Azeez… he offers a fresh piece on an otherwise aging defense who can get to the QB.
  21. IND – Sam Cosmi, LT, Texas – The Colts would be my favorite to acquire Carson Wentz via trade, but again, I’m hesitant to predict that as he’s not the only option to them. I have them opting to address another important need and that’s Left-Tackle. You can see how high I am on the OL in this class, as this marks the fifth OT that has been drafted thus far. Cosmi getting stronger this past season could see him being drafted inside the Top 15 as he had a solid year but I’m a bit more conservative right now of moving him up that high but would love to see how he performs at the Combine. I love the fit here, no questions for me about his ability to start immediately at LT his rookie season in the Colts Offense.
  22. TEN – Joe Ossai, LB/EDGE, Texas – This seems to be a popular pick among many of us, fits the defense, can play on the EDGE, possibly inside, Ossai is someone that has late 1st-late 2nd value and I feel that he is much closer to being drafted at his ceiling than his floor. Especially when it’s such a natural system fit as he presents to Tennessee.
  23. NYJ via SEA – Carlos “Boogie” Basham, Jr., DL, Wake Forest – Boogie was one of the EDGE prospects that I had projected to improve their draft stock at the Senior Bowl, while I was expecting him to be more dominant – that didn’t happen, he did improve his stock and I do see him being a potential selection in this range. The Jets should be switching to a 4-3 Under with Robert Saleh as the HC, and Basham is an inside-out player that can best fit this defense. Some project him purely as a 4-3 DE, but I think that Saleh’s defense is more along what he can thrive in. Relentless worker, tough, always gives his all and takes no plays off. Fits the identity of what Saleh will install.
  24. PIT – Daviyon Nixon, DL, Iowa – Daviyon Nixon is my current IDL1, but he’s much more than just being summed up to that position. This is typically a player that I would have going between 13-15, but due to the overwhelming offensive talent in this class, we see him going much lower than I would have expected. I think this is something that I have to keep in mind, as I had guys like Nixon, Barmore and Twyman going much higher than they probably will go. Nixon can play in any scheme. Can play the 3, 4i, 5, can line-up as an Elephant in a 4-3 Under, would be a monster in a 3-4 Pinch Under as well. The guy just does things that no one in this class do at his positional group. This is by far the best value pick of the first round and a huge win for Pittsburgh in this mock. Hard worker, great teammate, one of the best leaders of this class. One of the most instinctive players I’ve ever seen.
  25. JAC via LAR – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC – I have Alijah lower than most mocks have him, it’s not that I don’t like him, in fact I like him very much, it’s just a matter of where he projects at the NFL level. I have him mainly as a player that you can try-out at LT and then move him inside should things not translate, and that’s okay for Jacksonville as they do have a quiet need at IOL. Protection for Lawrence is what matters most. Any team with a young QB should take note of what happened to Joe Burrow and never allow something like that to happen to their own.
  26. CLE – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame – See Kwity Paye write up. I don’t care what a team has done in the past. Cleveland got beat by the Chiefs in the flats, didn’t have fast LB play, couldn’t close in on the sidelines quick enough, JOK makes the defense faster and better. You could go DT, you could go EDGE, you could even argue Safety here but I’m going with a quick LB that can play 3 Downs, in Nickel, and can allow the team to continue keeping 5 DB’s on the field while also offering immediate contributions in base sets. Cleveland has 4 picks in the Top 100, they can address several of the needs on defense in any order but right now I have them addressing LB first.
  27. BAL – Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami – I get that the other Miami EDGE, Jaelin Phillips, is usually seen here but Roche proved how dynamic and underrated he was at the Senior Bowl generating constant pressure. I had Roche as going in this range seemingly since Day 1 and I felt he wasn’t getting the attention he deserves and I also had him, like Basham, as someone that could leave his mark at the Senior Bowl and he proved to do just that.
  28. NO – Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue – Moore has been someone that I’ve mocked and “unmocked” to the Saints more times than I can count for the last couple of months. I see a good fit here, Michael Thomas playing this season knowing that he needed surgery could have altered his career. I get wanting to play through and try to win a SB knowing that Brees was going to retire but he was a non-factor all year. Even if Thomas comes back strong, Moore provides another option for the Saints and whomever their QB will be.
  29. GB – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina – Jaycee is either over-hyped or under-valued depending on whom you may ask. I like him because he fits virtually any scheme. Several CB’s could go here, Campbell, Stokes, etc. I like what Horn could provide to Green Bay opposite Jaire, a sense of physicality and good skill. There’s a virtual logjam at the positional group at this point and you’re essentially splitting hairs. I think what will happen is that whoever has the strongest Combine/Pro Day/Process and improves their position by flashing athleticism and has good measurables will wind up in Green Bay with this selection.
  30. CAR via BUF – Proposed Draft Day Trade – BUF Receives: 2.39 Draft Selection, 4.104 Draft Selection, 2022 CAR 2nd Round Selection; CAR Receives: 1.30 Draft Selection, 2022 4th Round Selection. CAR Selects – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama. A player that I once saw nothing more than a 3rd Round, High-End back-up QB I now have being selected in the late 1st. He still could very well slide to the early 3rd, don’t get me wrong, but the progress he has made and the impact he has left with Carolina is real. From late in the season, to the College Football Playoffs, to the game against OSU, to the Senior Bowl, he has shown nothing but progress and improvement. He has gotten better at reading defenses, better decision-making in general combined with his overwhelming display of leadership qualities during interviews (as I’ve heard) and glowing reviews from teammates and coaches may see Jones skyrocket. Some teams picking higher are impressed with him too so there’s room for him to be drafted earlier than this. Even when I went back and saw some of his games from this year, the progress that I didn’t notice at first, it was so subtle, but I can say for certain, he has been putting in the work. What a pleasant surprise Jones has become for me.
  31. TB – Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama – Tampa will be in need of more impact players to capitalize on Tom Brady’s window, and it’s hard to argue against Christian Barmore here especially with Ndamakong Suh unlikely to return next season. Barmore is almost universally projected as a 4-3 3-Tech DT at the next level however the guy I have him replacing was once viewed the same way and has played in multiple schemes during his career as well. I think Alabama has a good program and a sense for teaching their IDL how to transition almost seamlessly to the next level. I have no doubts about Barmore’s ability to play in Bowles defense.
  32. KC – Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss – At this point, you’re not really targeting specific needs, but mainly players that have the best chance of being immediate contributors and/or fit your scheme. Moore does all three things for KC as Sammy Watkins is hitting FA. Moore could step in and be a strong Slot WR, the range I have him going is anywhere between Late Round 1 to Early Round 3.
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Hey - One person believes we could win it all next year. That's something, right?

[ Removed by reddit in response to a copyright notice. ]
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Which teams will be in the market for a QB this offseason?

The thread on Schefter predicting 5 QB's will be drafted in the first round brought up good points on how there will be a lot of teams looking to upgrade the position during the offseason. I made a list based on the current draft order and excluded teams with rookie QB's and established franchise QB's.
Please let me know what you think.
​
  1. New York Jets (drafting #1 overall) - 99.9% chance of getting a new QB. While there's technically a chance the Jets could sweep the rest of the season outperforming the rest of the teams at the top of the draft order, it's highly unlikely. Darnold hasn't gotten much help from the roster or from Gase, plus he suffered injuries and illnesses. But he just doesn't look like a franchise QB and the Jets should move on. The Jets will draft a new QB and will likely be picking #1 overall.
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars (drafting #2 overall) - 95% chance of getting a new QB. Minshew is okay, just okay. Jake Luton put up decent stats against the Texans, but stats can lie; he had some bad throws that should have been intercepted. Still, not bad for his first NFL start. Plus the Jags are in the midst of a rebuild and don't have the most talented roster. So I give it a small chance that maybe Luton (or Minshew if he returns) shows enough for the Jags to give them another year after trading back for a haul to improve the rest of the roster. But all that goes out the window if the Jags get the #1 pick.
  3. Dallas Cowboys (drafting #3 overall) - 30% chance of getting a new QB. This is a tough one. If they end up getting the #1 pick, they should strongly consider moving on from Dak and should stick with them if they fall out of the top 5. But if they end up with the #2 or #3 pick? If they like the QB's available there, it might be tempting to take the risk on drafting one to have a QB on a cheap contract instead of paying Dak $35+ million a year. On the other hand, they could trade the pick to shore up the defense for when Dak returns. Also, they need to make sure Dak's recovery is going well. Overall, it's most likely the Cowboys stick with Dak.
  4. New York Giants (drafting #4 overall) - 60% chance of getting a new QB. I think this largely hinges on whether or not Gettleman is still the GM at the end of the season. Joe Judge seems to be a decent coach but I don't know what he thinks of Daniel Jones. Jones has shown flashes but then has a turnovefumble problem, but the Giants' roster hasn't been much help to him. So that's why I think it boils down to Gettleman. If he's still the GM, they'll give DJ another year. If there's a new GM, I think they'll bring in someone else.
  5. Washington Football Team (drafting #5 overall) - 99% chance of getting a new QB. Haskins is clearly gone. Kyle Allen is a good backup but not a franchise QB. Everyone loves Alex Smith but he isn't the future. The big question is whether Washington likes the QB's left on the board. There's a chance they don't and would pursue a free agent QB or trade for one. Either way, Washington is getting a new QB.
  6. Carolina Panthers (drafting #9 overall) - 60% chance of getting a new QB. Teddy's not bad, but the Panthers should likely be looking for an upgrade. The problem is their draft position and whether they'll like any options left on the board. Also, Teddy is under contract through 2022 and the Panthers can cut him in 2022 with only $5 million in dead cap. So they may draft a developmental prospect and let him sit knowing Teddy will be the starter until he's ready. They also may trade for a current QB or sign a free agent QB.
  7. Atlanta Falcons (drafting #10 overall) - 10% chance of getting a new QB. Their draft position and Matt Ryan's contract make it unlikely that they'll move on to another QB. However, there will be a new regime in Atlanta and maybe they decide to blow it all up immediately as a purged roster without Matt Ryan and a placeholder QB would be the favorites for the #1 pick in 2022 draft.
  8. Detroit Lions (drafting #11 overall) - 10% chance of getting a new QB. Similar situation as the Falcons. Their draft position and Stafford's contract make it difficult to move on if they wanted to. But there's a good chance Patricia and Quinn are gone at the end of the season, and the new regime might want to blow it all up.
  9. Minnesota Vikings (drafting #12 overall) - 20% chance of getting a new QB. I must admit I don't watch many Vikings games. Kirk seems good one day and awful the next, so I think they can upgrade the position. However, lack of cap space make it difficult to bring in a free agent QB. Maybe they take a flier on a QB remaining on the board or trade for Haskins/Darnold/etc.
  10. New England Patriots (drafting #13 overall) - 99% chance of getting a new QB. Neither Newton or Stidham is the answer. The Patriots are getting a new QB in the draft, by trading for one, or by signing a free agent.
  11. Denver Broncos (drafting #14 overall) - 60% chance of getting a new QB. Lock has been up and down and still needs time to determine whether he's the guy or not. However, Elway has had it rough with QB's since Peyton left, so I think he'll bring someone for competition.
  12. San Francisco 49ers (drafting #15 overall) - 50% chance of getting a new QB. Jimmy led the team to the Superbowl earlier this year, but injuries and lackluster play has raised concerns on his future especially since the Niners could cut him with $2.8 million in dead cap. The big question is if there's a better option available. They're drafting in the middle of the pack and there will be a lot of competition for QB's. I think it's 50/50 whether or not they find someone who they think is an upgrade.
  13. Chicago Bears (drafting #16 overall) - 90% chance of getting a new QB. Although I'm starting to think Nagy might be as much, if not more, of a problem than Foles and Trubisky; I think everyone knows it's time to shake up the QB room. Even if they have to settle for Haskins or Darnold, they're bringing in someone new.
  14. Indianapolis Colts (drafting #17 overall) - 80% chance of getting a new QB. Rivers is Rivers. He's on a one year contract, so either they sign him for another year or they move on and I think they'll move on.
  15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (drafting #25 overall) - 30% chance of getting a new QB. It's ride or die with Brady who's under contract through the end of next year. Although they may take a flier drafting a developmental prospect for life post-Brady.
  16. New Orleans Saints (drafting #31 overall) - 50% chance of getting a new QB. Does Brees retire? Do the Saints like what they saw in Winston enough to keep him around? This mainly centers on whether Brees hangs it up or not, so I'm giving it coin-flip odds of 50%.
  17. Pittsburgh Steelers (drafting #32 overall) - 90% chance of getting a new QB. Big Ben is a frontrunner for Comeback Player of the Year, but he's had multiple injuries so far this year. I don't think the Steelers will try to replace Big Ben, but they'll bring someone in as insurance and as an upgrade to their current backups.
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Game Preview Week 15 Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (7-6)

Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1) vs Arizona Cardinals (7-6)
The Jalen Hurts era started in Philly with a bang as the Eagles knocked off the number 1 seed Saints being a strong rushing attack led by Hurts and Miles Sanders. The defense was the real winner in this game as they completely shut down the Saints offense for most of the game. But the win came at a cost, Rodney McLeod tore his MCL and will be out for the season and a number of other defenders left the game and will be questionable going into the game this week. The Eagles also lost starting RT Jack Driscoll for the remainder of the season to a MCL sprain.The Eagles with their rookie QB at the helm will travel to Arizona this week to take on the Arizona Cardinals who need a win to stay close in the playoff hunt. The loss of McLeod will be felt as the Cardinals come in with an impressive passing attack led by Kylar Murray and WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk. Jim Schwartz will need to come up with a game plan to shutdown the Cardinals big time WRs with a banged up secondary. At the same time they will need to slow down the Cardinals running game where Murray is also dangerous, but Kenyon Drake is the real threat. The Eagles will also unfortunately still be fighting for a playoff spot by winning the NFCE shitpile, but will be eliminated this week with a Washington win and an Eagles loss. Here is to an injury free game.
General Information
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Score Prediction Contest
Date
Sunday December 20th, 2020
Game Time Game Location
4:05 PM - Eastern State Farm Stadium
3:05 PM - Central 1 Cardinals Drive
2:05 PM - Mountain Glendale, AZ 85305
1:05 PM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 61°F
Feels Like: 61°F
Forecast: Clear. Clear throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Cloud Coverage: 0%
Wind: 3mi East MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Arizona -6.5
OveUnder: 49
Record VS. Spread: Eagles 5-8, Cardinals 6-7
Where to Watch on TV
FOX will broadcast Monday’s game to a national audience. Brandon Gaudin will handle play-by-play duties and Aqib Talib will provide analysis.
Week 15 TV Map
Radio Streams
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Cardinals Radio
Arizona Sports (98.7 FM) is the flagship station of the Cardinals Radio Network.Dave Pasch handles the play-by-play duties, Cardinals FB Ron Wolfley provides color commentary for the Cardinals.
National Radio
NA
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel Cardinals Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 138(Streaming 825) SIRI 81(Streaming 800)
XM Radio XM 381 (Streaming 825) (XM 226 (Streaming 800)
Sirus XM Radio SXM 381 (Streaming 825) SXM 226(Streaming 800)
Eagles Social Media Cardinals Social Media
Website [Website](https://www.azcardinals.com/
Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
Instagram Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles Snapchat: SnapAZCardinals
NFC East Standings
NFC EAST Record PCT Home Road Div Conf PF PA Net Pts Streak
Football Team 6-7 .462 3-3 3-4 3-2 4-5 287 275 12 4W
Giants 5-8 .385 2-4 3-4 3-2 4-6 238 291 -53 1L
Eagles 4-8-1 .346 3-3-1 1-5 2-2 4-5 277 328 -51 1W
Cowboys 4-8 .308 2-4 2-5 1-3 3-6 298 400 -102 1W
Series Information
The Arizona/St.Louis/Chicago Cardinals lead the Philadelphia Eagles (59-57-5)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
November 10, 1935 at Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL. Chicago Cardinals 12 - Philadelphia Eagles 3
Points Leader
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the Arizona/St.Louis/Chicago Cardinals (719-680)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 1-0 vs. the Cardinals
Kliff Kingsbury: 0-0 vs. the Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Pederson vs Kingsbury: First Meeting of the coaches.
Quarterback Record
Jalen Hurts: Against Cardinals 0-0
Kylar Murrayl: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Jalen Hurts vs Kylar Murray: This will be the first matchup between the QBs in the NFL
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead: 3-2
Record @ State Farm Stadium: Cardinals leads series: 3-0
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 23 - Cardinals No. 14
2020 Record
Eagles: 4-8-1
Cardinals 7-6
Last Meeting
Sunday, October 8th, 2017
Eagles 34 - Cardinals 7
The Eagles scored early and often in this game, for their first blowout win of the season against the Arizona Cardinals. Carson Wentz found tight ends Trey Burton and Zach Ertz for early touchdowns, and later connected with wide receiver Torrey Smith for a 59-yard touchdown to finish the first quarter. Following Smith's touchdown, the Eagles unveiled their baseball home run celebration for the first time all season. The closest the Cardinals came was in the second quarter when they trailed 21–7 following a John Brown 13-yard touchdown. In the mid third quarter, on 3rd and 19, Wentz found wide receiver Nelson Agholor for a 72-yard touchdown pass, on which Agholor juked rookie safety Budda Baker and finished the play with the Nestea Plunge. The final score was 34–7, and Wentz threw for four touchdowns, including three first quarter touchdown passes.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here for box score
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
10/08/17 Eagles Cardinals 34-17
12/20/15 Cardinals Eagles 40-17
10/26/14 Cardinals Eagles 24-20
12/01/13 Eagles Cardinals 24-21
09/23/12 Cardinals Eagles 27-6
11/13/11 Cardinals Eagles 21-17
01/18/09 Cardinals Eagles 32-25
11/27/08 Eagles Cardinals 48-20
12/24/05 Cardinals Eagles 27-21
11/17/02 Eagles Cardinals 38-14
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
Cardinals Cardinals
2020 “Expert” Picks
Week 15 - "Expert" Picks
2020 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Cardinals Season Stats
2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Passing
Name CMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RAT
Wentz 251 437 57.4% 2620 16 15 72.8
Hurts 25 45 55.6% 309 2 1 82.5
Murray 309 461 67.0% 3231 23 10 94.7
Rushing
Name ATT YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Sanders 132 746 74.6 5.7 5
Drake 201 848 70.7 4.2 9
Receiving
Name REC YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Fulgham 33 467 46.7 14.2 4
Hopkins 94 1155 88.8 12.3 5
Sacks
Name Sacks Team Total
Graham 7.0 43
Reddick 10 37
Tackles
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
Singleton 87 55 32 1.0
Hicks 101 67 34 0.0
Interceptions
Name Ints Team Total
Singleton/McLeod/Mills/Riley 1 4
Peterson/Kirkpatrick 3 10
Punting
Name ATT YDS LONG AVG NET IN 20 TB BP
Johnston 58 2794 66 48.2 42.5 20 4 0
Lee 45 1979 58 44.0 38.7 16 2 0
Kicking
Name ATT MADE % LONG PAT
Elliot 18 13 72.2% 54 18/20
Gonzalez 22 16 72.7% 56 38/39
Nuggent 4 4 100.0% 56 2/2
Kick Returns
Name ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
Scott 20 438 21.9 46 0
Edmonds 18 417 23.2 54 0
Punt Returns
Name RET YDS AVG LONG TD FC
Ward 17 116 6.8 22 0 15
Kirk 20 132 6.6 24 0 6
League Rankings 2020
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Cardinals Stat Cardinals Rank
Total Offense 326.1 26th 389.5 4th
Rush Offense 126.2 9th 151.2 4th
Pass Offense 199.8 28th 238.2 18th
Points Per Game 21.3 26th(t) 27.5 10th
3rd-Down Offense 37.4% 28th 42.5% 14th
4th-Down Offense 37.0% 28th 70.6% 6th
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 61.1% 13th 68.8% 7th
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Cardinals Stat Cardinals Rank
Total Defence 347.9 14th 344.5 12th
Rush Defence 127.3 24th 119.5 18th
Pass Defence 220.6 9th 224.9 11th
Points Per Game 25.2 19th 23.3 13th
3rd-Down Defence 37.6% 9th 41.3% 16th
4th-Down Defence 37.5% 4th 62.5% 23rd(t)
Red Zone Defence(TD%) 66.7% 26th(t) 53.3% 6th
Team
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Cardinals Stat Cardinals Rank
Turnover Diff. -10 29th(t) +3 12th(t)
Penalty Per Game 6.2 21st(t) 7.2 32nd
Penalty Yards Per Game 48.3 16th 55.9 24th
Connections
Cardinals MLB Jordan Hicks was drafted in the 3rd round in 2015 NFL Draft and played 4 seasons with the Eagles.
Cardinals LB Hassan Reddick is from Camden NJ, and attended college at Temple in Philadelphia.
Cardinals RB James Saxon played one season for the Eagles in 1995.
Cardinals LB Coach Billy Davis served as defensive coordinator of the Eagles from 2013-2015.
Eagles S Rudy Ford played two seasons with the Cardinals from 2017-2018.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles Cardinals
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter) WR DeAndre Hopkins(Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter) OLB Chandler Jones (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz FS Budda Baker (Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)
General
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Jalen Hurts started his first career game in Week 14 vs. New Or-leans, leading the Eagles to a 24-21 victory over the 10-2 Saints. Hurts, the Eagles’ youngest starting QB since Jack Concannon in 1964, became the second QB in NFL history to beat a team on a 9+ game winning streak in their starting debut, joining Ron Jawor-ski (12/20/75 vs. Pittsburgh with L.A. Rams - snapped Steelers’ 11-game streak). He also became the first NFL QB since 1950 to throw a TD pass and rush for 100+ yards in their first start.
Miles Sanders (746 rushing yards, 5 TDs), ranks 2nd among NFL RBs in rushing average (5.7), behind Nick Chubb (5.9) (min. 125 attempts). In Week 14 vs. New Orleans, Sanders recorded an 82-yard rushing TD, marking the 4th-longest rushing play in Eagles history. He is the first NFL RB with 3 rushes of 70+ yards in the same season since 2012, when Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson each accomplished the feat.
Philadelphia’s defense ranks 2nd in the NFL with 43.0 sacks, trail-ing only Pittsburgh (45.0). Since Week 10, Fletcher Cox ranks 1st among NFL DTs with 4.0 sacks, while Javon Hargrave is tied for 2nd with Aaron Donald and Leonard Williams with 3.5 sacks.
Dallas Goedert is one of three NFL TEs with 250+ receiving yards (261) and 2+ TDs (2) since Week 11, joining Travis Kelce (481 yards, 3 TDs) and Darren Waller (386 yards, 3 TDs).
Draft Picks
Eagles Cardinals
WR Jalen Raegor OLB Isiah Simmons
QB Jalen Hurts OT Josh Jones
LB Davion Taylor DT Leki Fotu
S K’Von Wallace LB Kamal Martin
OT Jack Driscoll DT Rashard Lawrence
WR John Hightower LB Evan Weaver
LB Shaun Bradley RB Eno Benjamin
WR Quez Watkins
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles Cardinals
DT Javon Hargrave WR DeAndre Hopkins
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman DT Jordan Phillips
CB Darius Slay LB Devon Kennard
LB De’Vondre Campbell
DT Trevon Coley
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles Cardinals
S Malcom Jenkins RB David Johnson
CB Ronald Darby DE Rodney Gunter
RB Jordan Howard DT Cassius Marsh
WR Nelson Agholor DT Zach Kerr
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai DT Cararun Reid
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill CB Bradon Williams
RB Darren Sproles WR Pharoh Cooper
DT Timmy Jernigan WR Damiere Byrd
LB Nigel Bradham LB Joe Walker
OT William Sweat
Milestones
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (29) needs 1 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Jerome Brown
Eagles TE Zach Ertz needs 40 yards for 6000 career receiving yards.
Food for Thought
The 1948 Philadelphia Eagles-Chicago Cardinals Championship Bout
Eagles fans recall Super Bowl LII with wonder and relish in it. These days, that date seems so very long ago, but there was another magical Championship game I’d like to remind you of, as the Eagles and Cardinals face off (and the Northeast just got a snow dump), the Eagles’ first championship. Sure, this team the Eagles will face is not the Chicago Cardinals or the St. Louis Cardinals or the Phoenix Cardinals, but it’s the same franchise of course.
As far as snowy games, fans typically recall the Eagles’ fun snow game of 2013 against the Lions in which players made snow angels in the endzone, but there was an even more memorable one, one which Eagles RB Steve Van Buren didn’t even think was going to take place. With a blizzard harrowing Philadelphia: “I was sure they wouldn’t be able to play and went back to bed,” Van Buren told [Joe Jonas]. “Then, ‘Greasy’ (coach Earle Neale) called and told me the game was on and to get a move on. I had to take a trolley, then the El, and then a second trolley. When that trolley bogged down in the snow, I had to walk down Lehigh Avenue through the drifts about two miles to the park. I got there just a couple of minutes before the kickoff.” source. Van Buren and the Eagles proceeded to run amok all over the Cardinals that fateful day.
Where the Cardinals managed 34 rushes for 96 yards, Van Buren led the Eagles to a 57 for 225 line day (let’s disregard Eagles QB Tommy Thompson stumbling toward a 0.0 passer rating: 2/12 for 7 yards and 2 INTs). Despite the Eagles controlling the game--in fact, the Eagles scored on the 1st play of the game, but it was called back for Offsides--it wasn’t until a minute left in the 4th that either team scored, a 5 yard rush by Van Buren. In victory, the Eagles exacted revenge on the Cardinals for losing the championship matchup the year prior 28-21.
Matchups to Watch
Arizona rushing attack vs the Eagles front seven
The Eagles have repeatedly struggled this season with teams who have mobile quarterbacks, who are able to escape the pocket. They did well last week against Taysom Hill, however this week they will take on Kylar Murray who is a lot closer to Lamar Jackson than Taysom Hill. The Eagles gave up 100 yards and a TD when they faced Jackson this season.again Like Jackson, Kylar Murray has the ability to break off big runs, as he is second to Jackson in rushing yards by a QB this season. Murray has over 700 rushing yards and a league leading 10 rushing TDs by a QB this season. Pair that with the impressive running attack of Kenyon Drake and the Eagles front seven will have their hands full on Sunday. With a talented receiving corp of the Cardinals the Eagles will not be able to stack the box and it will be on the front seven to keep contain and stay in the lanes to keep Murray and Drake in check. If they don’t and allow the Cardinals to establish the run look for the Cardinals to pound the run and look for a big play off play-action to one of their talented WRs.
Eagles banged up secondary vs the talented receiving corp of the Cardinals
In their win over the Saints, the Eagles lost their two best players in the secondary in safety Rodney McLeod and CB Darius Slay. McLeod unfortunately tore his MCL and will miss the remainder of the season and Slay suffered a concussion and while he has progressed through the protocol he has not been cleared as of the time of this writing. If Slay misses the game the Eagles will most likely lean on Avonte Maddox to cover All-Pro WR DeAndre Hopkins which is not good news for the Eagles. Last time the Maddox was asked to cover an All-Pro he was absolutely torched by Davante Adams. Hopkins is also questionable for the game, but is trending towards playing.Eagles DC Jim Schwartz will need to get creative with his coverages and hope his front four can continue to wreak havoc like they did last week where Hill was under constant pressure. If given time, Murray will cut up this secondary and have some big plays against the Eagles backups.
Jalen Hurts and Doug Pederson vs Vance Joseph
Cardinals’ defensive coordinator Vance Joseph will have the job of stopping the Eagles rookie QB who ran all over the Saints number one ranked defense last week. Doug Pederson said earlier this week that the Eagles simply shot themselves in the foot in the second half against the Saints, but rewatching the game it looks like the Saints made some adjustments at halftime that were effective in slowing down and confusing the rookie QB. Unlike the Saints, Joseph will have a full game tape to review and prepare for Hurts. Of course, Pederson and Eagles know what they put out on film too and will have to adjust to how they played in the second half against the Saints. It’ll be up to them to have a counterpunch ready to go depending on how the Cardinals play the rookie quarterback. Hurts was far more effective with his legs than his arm against the Saints, so I would not be surprised to see Joseph put a spy on Hurts to limit his ability to run. If the Cardinals do spy him, it will most likely go to former Eagles Jordan Hicks who is extremely athletic for an LB and should be able to match Hurts speed and athleticism. With the spy that’s one less player in coverage, which should open some up some things in the passing game if Hurts can take advantage of it. The Eagles have a lot of offensive coaches on the staff and it is their job to put him in the best position to be successful, but that is something they have failed to do with a number of guys on the offense this year, so it remains to see if they can do it with Hurts when the other team is gameplanning for him. If they can and that is a big IF Hurts will still need to execute and continue to show the same poise he did last weekend.
Special thanks to abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
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