Yesterday I commented on how you had a 1.43% chance of starting for a domestic Icelandic side if you were a male aged 15-39 using quickmaths^TM .
It got me thinking about other small nations and the likelihood of starting for a team in your own national league if you’re a man of playing age.

The Assumptions

To get a rough estimate, I need to make several sweeping generalisations.
Assumption 1) It’s just men.
Despite exceptions like Yuki Nagasato and Ellen Fokkema, I’ll calculate solely from the amount of men in a nation that are between 15-39.
Assumption 2) It’s every man.
I don’t care if you hate football, if you’ve got a condition preventing you from playing football, or if you’re registered as a citizen of your country but live elsewhere, you’re getting included. Likewise, this means those who live in one nation but are a citizen of another won’t be included.
Assumption 3) Starting XIs can only be comprised of 15-39 year olds.
I know many 40+ year old players will be out there, but this demographic would match the general career of top footballers. I’ll use population pyramids to get the amount of men in this demographic. Pyramids tend to move in 5 year increments so 15-39 is the most fair range I can think of.
Assumption 4) All teams are independent from each other.
Inaccurate I know, but if I was calculating for Spain, I’d be counting Barcelona and Barcelona B as two separate clubs. If there is an easy way to separate the reserve teams from the rest, I won't include them (as you’ll see, I’m quite loose with this assumption).

Method

Find out how many men aged 15-39 are in a country. Divide that by the number of teams in their domestic league. Divide that figure by 11. 1 Divided by this answer and multiplied by 100 will give the % chance of a random male aged 15-39 being in the starting 11 for a team any given matchday.
Formula:
M/T=X
X/11=Y
1/Y=Z
Z x 100 = % chance.
(M = men, T = teams)

Limitations

Lots. I’m not trying to be too serious here. As I’ve said, I’m not factoring in people who can’t play, people who have moved out of the country, players who have come in from a different country etc…
Recordkeeping at lower league levels is hard so even the amount of clubs in a league system is a bit shoddy. Some of the population pyramids are marked poorly so I’ll have to guesstimate as best as I can.

Leagues to look at

These are the 11 domestic leagues I’ll look at. Each of these countries/territories are FIFA recognised. Why these 11? They were all on the lower end of FIFA rankings and population number.

Andorra
Faroe Islands
Gibraltar
Liechtenstein
Luxembourg
Monserrat
New Caledonia
San Marino
St.Kitts and Nevis
Tahiti
Turks and Caicos Islands

So, in order from lower to higher chance…

New Caledonia

Linguistically, New Caledonia is almost identical to Nova Scotia. Climatewise, they’re complete (but not polar) opposites. New Caledonia is neither an overseas region nor an overseas collectivity of France but lies in its own legislative niche in the southwest Pacific Ocean. The 70s was their golden age, with a win over New Zealand and scoring 3 against Bulgaria (only to concede 5). More recently they drew 1-1 against Estonia in 2017.
Their top division contains 12 teams, with a secondary division which contains up to 13 teams in any given season.
A 2019 population pyramid gives me an M number of 54032.
M = 54032 T = 25
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.51%.
My favourite domestic team: AS Magenta. They got to the Oceania Champions League Final in 2005, losing to Sydney FC.

Turks and Caicos Islands

A British overseas territory in the Caribbean, the wonderfully named Cockburn Town is it’s capital (pronounced cohw-burn like it’s Edinburgh Street counterpart). Horatio Nelson suffered a rare defeat of the coast of the islands in the 1780s and John Glenn landed near the islands in 1962 after his first spaceflight. Their national team hasn’t achieved much with only one World Cup qualifying win (which they lost on aggregate in the return leg).
Their domestic league has had up to 18 teams in the past, but last season only had 6 in their premier division. This number is fluid so the T number will be between 6-18.
A 2018 population pyramid brought the M number to c.12,200
M = 12200 T = 6-18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.54-1.62%
My favourite domestic team: If you think Red Bull is bad for corporate branding, 2-time league champions KPMG United FC were a strong team in the mid 2000s. In 2006 they changed their name, and won another league title under the new name PWC Athletic.

Tahiti

Tahiti is the largest island in French Polynesia, but FIFA recognises it as a separate footballing nation. Lyle Lanley famously swindled the town of Springfield and fled toward Tahiti. Before he got there however, he was attacked by the inhabitants of North Haverbrook. Tahiti beat the Cook Islands 30-0 in 1971. You might remember Tahiti from the 2013 confederations cup where they played Spain, Uruguay, and Nigeria. They scored 1 and conceded 24 giving them the worst GD of any national team in any major competition.
There are 2 tiers to the Tahiti domestic league, these contain 32 clubs (+14 reserve teams that I won’t count).
A population pyramid for Tahiti is impossible to find, as it is a subregion of French Polynesia. Nevertheless, you can be from any of the other islands and still represent Tahiti. This calculation from a 2020 population pyramid gives me an M number of 52931
M = 52931 T = 32
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.67%
My favourite domestic team: It is a tie between AS Excelsior and AS Dragon. Combining them would give the league a mythical allure.

Luxembourg

Luxembourg have been improving rapidly internationally. They beat Hungary in 2017 and they drew 0-0 with France less than a year before France became world champions. Real glory was bestowed upon them in 1980 they reached the semi-finals of the Indonesian Marah Halim Cup where they eventually lost to a Burmese XI.
Luxembourg have 5 tiers in their domestic league. These 5 tiers are home to a massive 104 teams.
A 2019 population pyramid shows Luxembourg having 109,701 males in the relevant age bracket. I clearly underestimated Luxembourg’s population.
M = 109,701 T = 104
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.04%
My favourite domestic team: FC Yellow Boys Weiler-la-Tour. What a name. 500pax capacity stadium. They play in the 2nd division which is also known as The Division of Honour. Their primary rivalry is with FC Blue Boys Muhlenbach and FC Red Boys Aspelt with a secondary rivalry against FC Green Boys 77 Harlange-Tarchamps.

Liechtenstein

One of the few double-landlocked countries in the world (they are landlocked as are their bordering countries), Liechtenstein squeezes in between Switzerland and Austria. Their national side signalled the beginning of the end of Jack Charlton’s Irish tenure when they held Ireland to a 0-0 draw in 1995. Ireland went on to get 3 points from a possible 12 and missed out on Euro 96. In 2011 it took until the 97th minute for Scotland to beat Liechtenstein.
The 7 football teams that are based in Liechtenstein all play in the Swiss domestic league. This stretches from FC Vaduz in the top division, to FC Schaan who play in the 8th tier.
The most recent population pyramid I could find was from 2015. No worries. I’ll calculate the M number from the 10-34 age range here instead of the 15-39. In this way it is a slightly more accurate, but still really flawed figure. This number comes to a suspiciously specific 5473
M = 5473 T = 7
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.41%
My favourite domestic team: FC Vaduz. I’ve been to Vaduz. It was hot and expensive. While there, I caught a glimpse of Pak Kwang-Ryong, their star striker who has been the North Korean footballer of the year in 2013. Previously he scored against Spurs in 2011.

St.Kitts and Nevis

Saint Kitts and Nevis is a dual island nation in the Caribbean. Neil deGrasse Tyson takes his middle name from his Nevis born grandmother. Founding father of the USA, Alexander Hamilton, was also born on Nevis. As for St Kitts, Marcus Rashford has a Kittitian grandmother. St Kitts and Nevis got to within one round of qualifying for the 2006 World Cup and are the only Caribbean side to beat a European team, when they defeated Andorra in 2015.
The Saint Kitts and Nevis domestic league is split across two tiers and I can find evidence of 14 teams.
A 2018 population pyramid gives me a rough M number of 9,700.
M = 9700 T = 14
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.59%
My favourite domestic team: Village Superstars FC. The 7 times league champions have earned their title.

Andorra

Nestled in the Pyrenees, the Andorran national side are the perennial whipping boys of every European and World Cup qualifying cycle. In 2001 they took the lead against Ireland (but conceded 2 in the next two minutes). Albania and Hungary are among the teams that have lost to Andorra previously.
Domestically, clubs play in the Primera and Segona Divisió. I found many defunct clubs but from what I can see, there are currently 18 active clubs in Andorra
The most recent population pyramid I could find was from 2018. Using this data, I calculated that there are c.11,900 males aged 15-39 in Andorra.
M = 11900 T = 18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.66%
My favourite domestic team: FC Andorra. The biggest side. Based in the capital. Named after the country but have never played in the domestic league. They play in Spain. They weren’t included in the calculation.

Faroe Islands

The Faroe Islands did the double over Greece in Euro 2016 qualifying. They’ve also beaten Iceland and Lithuania in the past. The beautiful rugged North Atlantic archipelago voted for independence in 1946 but this result was annulled by the Danes. 2 years later they were granted extensive home rule.
Like Andorra, there are 18 official clubs (There are 4 divisions in Andorra with the bottom ones being exclusively populated by reserve teams. I’ve only counted non-reserve teams in brazen defiance of my 4th assumption).
Again, the most recent population pyramid was from 2018. I found c.8800 15-39 year old males.
M = 8800 T = 18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 2.25%
My favourite domestic team: B36 Tórshavn. A great run saw them reach the 3rd qualifying round of the Europa League this season, eventually losing out to CSKA Sofia

Gibraltar

Gibraltar has been a FIFA member since 2016. They’ve beaten Armenia, Latvia, Liechtenstein, and San Marino since becoming FIFA members. Their 2 tier national league is currently home to 17 clubs (2 recently disbanded).
Their 2018 population pyramid showed roughly 5600 eligible males living in Gibraltar.
M = 5600 T = 17
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 3.34%
My favourite domestic team: Lincoln Red Imps. They went 1,959 days unbeaten in the domestic league from 2009-2014. Followed up in 2016 with a win over Celtic. Not content with only one Old Firm scalp, they played Rangers this season but got smashed 5-0.

San Marino

One of two states completely enveloped by Italy, San Marino will be remembered for their 1993 match against England when they scored after 8.3 seconds and then went on to concede 7. On the other end of the 90 minutes, they scored an 87th minute equaliser against Ireland only to concede again in the 95th minute in 2007. Turkey, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar, and Estonia are the only teams to have ever dropped points against San Marino. A 1-0 win over Liechtenstein in a 2004 friendly remains their only win to date.
The league system in San Marino comprises of 15 teams in two conferences (there is no relegation/promotion). The Sammarinese league is rated 55/55 regarding UEFA Coefficients.
I found a 2016 population pyramid, so like Liechtenstein, I shifted the data to 10-34 year olds for this M number. The number here was c.4800
M = 4800 T = 15
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 3.44% chance
My favourite domestic team: A.S. San Giovanni. The only team from San Marino that has never won anything domestically. They have a downright wacky poorly translated history on Wikipedia which only endeared them to me more.

Monserrat

A volcanic British Overseas Territory in the Caribbean. Due to huge eruptions that started in 1995, more than half of the island is uninhabitable. Many indentured Irish servants were brought to Monserrat which has left a noticeable impression on the demographics of the island. Riley, O'Brien, Farrell, Ryan, and Meade are some of the more prominent surnames on Monserrat. The 'Black Irish' of Monserrat is something that has often been reported on.
Monserrat routinely featured at the foot of the FIFA rankings for many years. On the day of the 2002 World Cup Final, Monserrat played Bhutan in what was called ‘The Other World Cup Final’ as it was between the two bottom ranked sides. Bhutan won 4-0 which was their first ever international win.
Monserrat has had an unstable league system due to constant volcanic eruptions. Teams come and go quite frequently. There are at least 5 times and at most 12, so the T number will be 5-12
With a tiny population, the Monserrat M number is only 1240.
M = 1240 T = 5-12
Chances of starting for a domestic team: 4.44%-9.68%
My favourite domestic team: Oh the Montserratian team names are amazing. Montserrat Volcano Observatory Tremors or the Seven Day Adventists Trendsetters would be my top picks.

Bonus

The Vatican City

The not FIFA recognised, home to so many skewed per capita records, I thought I’d include the Vatican just out of curiosity.
The Vatican actually has an internal domestic league, The Vatican City Championship, with 8 teams. The teams are comprised between the staff of the police, the newspapers, the library, and other administrative bodies. The pope is yet to line up for any of the sides. The league also has a cup competition, The Vatican Supercoppa
The only population pyramid I found was poor and unsourced. As there are minimal women living in the Vatican, It’s safe to assume almost all of the 825 residents are male. As it’s difficult to find age breakdowns, I’ll include every person living in the Vatican as my M number.
M = 825 T = 8
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 10.70%
TL;DR

Domestic League	% chance
New Caledonia	0.51
Turks and Caicos Islands	0.54-1.62
Tahiti	0.67
Luxembourg	1.04
Liechtenstein	1.41
St.Kitts and Nevis	1.59
Andorra	1.66
Faroe Islands	2.25
Gibraltar	3.34
San Marino	3.44
Monserrat	4.44-9.68
The Vatican¹	10.70

¹ Not FIFA recognized.

Conclusion

Want your son to have the best chance of being in a starting XI? You better move to Monserrat. If you’re European and don’t want to move too far maybe San Marino is your best bet.
Of course if you were just looking to get into a matchday squad,you could roughly double the percentage.
There are around 200 countries in the world and I only looked at 5% of them. I’m sure there are other ones with better ratios out there but quite frankly, I’m too lazy.
Thanks for reading!
Sources:
Population pyramids:
https://www.populationpyramid.net/
https://www.theodora.com/
Club numbers:
www.wikipedia.org for general info and then the citations on wikipedia for a more detailed look.
https://int.soccerway.com/
www.FIFA.com

V1per's Week 13 Survivor/Eliminator Pick

Analyzing Tottenham Players' Shot Maps

~~Rank~~	~~Team~~	~~P(Win Week)~~	~~P(Win Out)~~	~~E(Wins)~~
1	~~MIN~~	~~81%~~	~~44.5%~~	~~16.26~~
2	LV	~~77%~~	~~42.3%~~	~~16.22~~
3	~~SEA~~	~~82%~~	~~41.4%~~	~~16.19~~
4	~~BAL~~	~~74%~~	~~39.7%~~	~~16.17~~

Rank	Team	P(Win Week)	P(Win Out)	E(Wins)
1	MIN	82%	45.2%	16.27
2	SEA	84%	42.7%	16.22
3	BAL	78%	41.9%	16.21
4	LV	75%	41.4%	16.20

Week	Team	Opp	P(Win)
1	BUF	NYJ	100%
2	TB	CAR	100%
3	CLE	WSH	100%
4	LAR	NYG	100%
5	NO	LAC	100%
6	MIA	NYJ	100%
7	LAC	JAX	100%
8	KC	NYJ	100%
9	NE	NYJ	100%
10	GB	JAX	100%
11	PIT	@JAX	100%
12	NYG	@CIN	100%
13	MIN	JAX	81%
14	SEA	NYJ	90%
15	BAL	JAX	87%
16	HOU	CIN	83%
17	IND	JAX	85%

This is somewhat of a Part 2 in what’s turning out to be a series of posts analyzing various aspects of Tottenham’s players and their attacking data. See my first post discussing xG and xA of players over the past 5 seasons here. In this post, I’ll be looking at a few players’ shot statistics, focusing mainly on shot location and other variables like which foot they use and their respective xG.
Tl;dr: Son is truly two-footed, and that is probably what makes him such a deadly finisher. Dele creates/has much better chances on his left foot than right foot but takes few shots with his left. Kane loves March 5th, but August seriously hates him.
THE DATA
I used a python script to gather a host of shot data from understat.com, a website that compiles a ton of information on leagues, teams, and players throughout the seasons. To save space, please refer to my original post about how I gathered data. I use the same method here. The data includes variables for every shot a player has taken in the leagues that Understat covers (Premier League, LaLiga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Russian Premier League). I gathered shots for Harry Kane, Son Heung-Min, Erik Lamela, Lucas Moura, Steven Bergwijn, Dele Alli, Giovanni Lo Celso, Eric Dier, and Toby Alderweireld. I gathered the main shot-takers as well as Dier and Alderweireld, 2 of our defenders who join the attack and come up for corners. I only pulled the shots for players both here last season at minimum and still here this season, so players like Eriksen and Fernando Llorente’s Hip have been excluded.
The dataset only includes Premier League matches, so no Champions league (… or EuropaL…) shots are included. Finally, after pulling the data, I added in what team the player was on for each shot, as the raw data only includes home and away teams, without specifying exactly what team the shot is foagainst. While Kane’s only club covered in the sample is Tottenham, players like Lo Celso, Son, and Lucas have played for several teams. I then filtered out other teams to only include shots taken while playing for Spurs. This is partially because I’m a huge Spurs supporter and am curious about our shot statistics, and also because it’s good practice in statistics to control for any possible outside variables, like teammates on different teams that only a single player in the sample was receiving passes from.
Once I cleaned up the data, I imported it into Tableau for easy visualization and storytelling. I used JMP to perform some t-tests for analysis later on, which is basically checking to see if 2 means are statistically different from each other or if there’s not really a true difference between them.
The key variables in this analysis are the X and Y coordinates of the shots. Understat has assigned an X and Y number to every shot, which is where the player took the shot from on the pitch. Visualizing a football pitch, with the team attacking from left to right, with the attacking team’s goal line at x = 0, and the opposing team’s goal line at x = 1. The right-side touchline of the pitch is at y = 0, and the left-side touchline is at y = 1. So, the center spot is located at (0.5, 0.5), and the center of the goal you’re shooting on is at (1, 0.5). I hope that makes sense.
One limitation of the data is that the coordinates are on a square, but pitches are rectangles. This isn’t a major issue, but it means that a 0.1 change in X is not the same distance, in meters, as a 0.1 change in Y. Also important to note is the fact that almost all Premier League pitches have different dimensions, even if by just a few yards. To best reconcile this, I averaged out the distance from goal-line to goal-line (X axis) and from touchline to touchline (Y axis) of the 2019-20 grounds. I next calculated at what coordinates to add the 18-yard box and 6-yard box lines to. Since all grounds have the same dimensions for these boxes, that isn’t a major problem. In the visualizations, the 18-yard box is solid gray, and the 6-yard box is dashed gray. I limit the views to the attacking half of the pitch for easy comparison. Only a couple of Kane’s and one of Lucas’ shots are from their own half (all misses).
I validated shot locations by watching a number of Son, Kane, and Dele goals on footballia.net. I watched 5 each of their goals, noted the locations they shot from, and then located them in my sample. They were very accurate, so I have confidence enough in the (x,y) coordinates coding.
ANALYSIS
Please follow this link here to play around with this data yourself on Tableau Public. I can’t figure out how to embed a Tableau Viz into a Reddit post.
The image below shows the full sample—all Spurs shots for all players I downloaded. Naturally, this view doesn’t show much at all. We can see that there are many goals right in front of the net, and they all have high xG. And we can see that the further away from the goal you get, the fewer shots there are. One thing I like about this Viz is how few shots Spurs take on the right or left side of the 18-yard box. But one of these shots is also my favorite-ever goal, which I’ll get to later on.

All shots in the sample. Color is the result (goal, saved, etc.) and size of the circle is xG. I really want to know what the “bald patch” around (0.85, 0.6) is…
From here, we can filter down by various variables, such as player. First, let’s look at a few players’ shot maps. Again, head over to my Tableau post to see all of these graphics and ones I didn’t screenshot—they’re interactive too.

Kane's shot map

Son's shot map

Dele's shot map

Lamela's shot map

Dier's shot map

Alderweireld' shot map
I don’t know about you, but I love looking at these maps. I’ve added a lot of information to each data point on Tableau, such as date; the team it was against; whether it was from a free kick, open play, corner, etc.; and the player who delivered the last pass before the shot. You can also highlight only the Result of the shot.
Of course, just looking at a shot map blindly gives little insight. We need to dig a little deeper into the data. First, I looked at average shot location, starting with the y-axis. This will show us which side of the pitch a player tends to take shots from. Kane’s average shot location on the Y-axis (left/right side of the pitch) is 0.5052—almost perfectly in the middle, so he doesn’t favor one side or the other. And his median location is exactly 0.5000, which is legitimately creepy. Since Kane’s the only striker in the group, naturally Son, Dele, and Bergwijn shoot more from the left, while Lo Celso, Lamela, and Lucas shoot more from the right. Dier and Alderweireld shoot more from the right, which makes sense since Dier has was used a bit as a right-sided midfielder and occasionally as a right back when he joined, and Toby almost exclusively plays as the right-sided CB. Toby has an average shot closer to the right touchline than Dier, which could show how Dier has played a fair bit at left-sided CB and as a central holding midfielder.

Average Y-axis location for each player’s shots. Kane does not favor a side to strike from.
Next, I dug into each player’s shot data based on the foot they shot with. I looked at the average xG of every shot taken, the goal conversion rate (goals/total shots), and the total number of shots taken with each foot. This data, shown in the table below—coupled with shot locations—is the meat of my analysis.

Average xG for each shot by foot, goal%, and total shots taken for selected players.
This table is where I first saw something major in the data:
Dele needs to use his left foot much more often. His average xG for all left-foot shots is 0.2644, much greater than 0.1208 average with his right. In fact, this is statistically significant at the 95% level (t-test p-value of 0.0006), which means that there’s less than a 5% chance that this big of a difference is random. Basically, it’s almost a given that Dele will have a higher xG with left-foot shots than right (on average).
Further, Dele has a 14.71% conversion rate with his left, and 16.46% with his right. This is an insignificant difference (p-value of 0.7915) from 34 left-footed shots and 237 right, so we can conclude that Dele should take more shots with his left foot. It is probable that defenders know he favors his right, so his high left-foot xG could be due to him putting defenders off by shifting onto his left, giving himself a much better look at goal (I should note that Lamela, who is notorious for only using his left foot, does not exhibit this with right-foot shots. Dele’s left-foot xG are in fact crazy). Last, it is important to note that no other player in the sample had a statistically significant difference between left- and right-foot average xG—the quality of their chances is the same on their right- or left foot. This is something unique to Dele in this sample.
Next, let’s look at Son. Son is known for having no weak foot—and his shot data backs that up. Son’s average xG on left-foot shots is 0.1148, and it’s 0.1137 for right-foot. An insignificant difference of only 0.011! He also converts 16.37% of left-foot and 17.62% of right-foot shots, again insignificant. He uses whichever foot would be the best for the situation, and his shot map backs that up. Outside the box, he prefers his left foot on the right side of the pitch, and his right foot on the left side. This is good practice (unless you’re trivela-master Quaresma or Le Cut Inside Man), so you can bend it into the net out of the keeper’s reach. Inside the box, Son tends to use his right foot on the right side, and left foot on the left side. Again, this is good practice because you can typically get a much better shot off when you’re running at the goal by using the foot of the side of net you’re on (right foot for right side of goal, and vice versa).
Since we discussed Dele’s right vs left xG and how Son chooses the best foot for the situation he’s in, let’s dive further into Dele, Son, Kane, and Lamela’s use of their feet. These are—or in Dele’s current form, were—some of Spurs’ main attackers of the past 5 seasons or so (who are still here). We know Son uses the best foot for the situation. We can further see that that is in fact the case when we add a trend line to his right- and left-foot shot maps. On his right-foot shot map, we see a “negative” trend (slope = -0.69 nice), which is what we want to see, given that outside the box you typically want to use your right foot on the left side of the pitch, and closer inside the box you want to use your right foot on the right side of the pitch. Lamela has a very similar trend (slope = -0.91). Kane has a less pronounced trend than Son and Lamela, but still a distinct shape (slope = -0.38). Dele’s line, however, is relatively flat (slope = -0.12). So, while he exhibits this trend, you can see how he’s using his right foot in many scenarios where he might be better served using his left.

Shot map and trend line for Right Foot shots
Looking now at left-foot shot maps, we want to see a “positive” trend line, a mirror of the right-foot map. Son, as we would expect from the ambipedal maestro, exhibits this perfectly (slope = 1.18). Kane’s is again a solid trend (slope = 0.55), yet not as pronounced as Son’s; same with Lamela (slope = 0.29). Now look at Dele’s… It is actually the exact opposite from what we might “want” to see. The slope here (slope = -0.35) is strangely greater than his right-foot trend line. I want to walk you through my thought process regarding this data:

Shot map and trend line for Left Foot shots
First, it appeared that Dele should take many of these shots with his right foot, and I figured maybe this is the reason he’s been under-performing of late. However, he is a fundamentally different player than Kane and Son, so his shots from close to the net on the right aren’t usually coming from him running at the keepedefenders, but from being cute and technical from a stopped position in a somewhat-crowded box. From watching him the last few years, he tends to try a few movements in the box to shift his body or open his hips for a pass or shot. Finally, I realized that maybe this explains his abnormal xG with left-foot vs right-foot shots…
No matter the scenario, being relatively close to the goal on the right side of the pitch would lead a defender to expect you to either recycle possession or use your right foot to shoot/cross across the face of goal. If Dele shifts it onto his left foot to have a shot (which the defender may not expect since Dele favors his right foot), this could lead to a higher xG shot than a right-foot shot, where the defender could close the angle easily. I’ve noticed that Dele likes to open his hips for a quick pass/shot fairly often, so this would be a perfect opportunity to do so—even if he’s running at the keeper he likes to open up his hips and try to slot it far post.
I welcome any comments/discussion on this aspect of Dele’s analysis. I found it very interesting that his left-foot shot map goes against what we “should” see. For further validation, we can compare Lamela’s trend lines (since he and Dele play somewhat similar roles and are both very one-footed). As we saw above, Lamela’s trends follow Son and Kane, so Dele truly is an anomaly with his left foot. Dele if you’re reading this… take more shots with your left foot!!! Somehow your left foot shots are crazy better than your right. Get back to your best, you’ve got this!
Now let’s look at Kane in August. Until August 18, 2018, Kane hadn’t scored in the month. Before that day, he had taken 46 shots in August for a combined total of 4.52 xG. And looking at his shot map for these 46 shots, it’s not that he’s taking bad strikes. He has several very high xG shots that were saved or hit the post. Kane truly does not perform well in August. The following table shows all players’ goals, total xG, and number of shots taken in August before Kane scored. Excluding Lucas, who only had one shot, every other player in the sample had scored. In fact, they were all outperforming their xG. August is Kane’s Bane.

Kane’s shot map for the month of August. You can see all the non-goals. August hates him.

Table showing all goals, total xG, and shots taken in August before the game Kane scored in.
Let’s move on past attackers to defenders now. Alderweireld has taken 19 shots on the right side of the pitch behind the 18-yard box; more than anywhere else except the middle of the 18-Yard Box around the penalty spot (which is expected since he comes up for corners). This shows how he pushes up from right-sided CB and has a crack from distance fairly regularly. Not a new insight, but cool to see. Dier has a similar spread of shots on both the right and left side of the pitch, but most of his shots from the right side outside the box are from 2014 to 2016, when he typically played as a right back, right-sided CB, and right-sided mid.
Lo Celso, Lucas, and Bergwijn have nothing extremely interesting to call out in detail, but here are a few things I found interesting. First, even though Lucas plays mainly on the right or as main striker, his shot map is almost symmetric. This shows how much he buzzes around the pitch, even when coming in from the right. Second, I thought it was interesting that Lo Celso has only taken two shots with his right foot so far. Both were low xG, and the keeper saved both. Those Argentinians legit have a thing against right feet. Finally, I was surprised to see how few shots Bergwijn has taken in the Prem. I must have rose-tinted glasses on, because I could’ve sworn he had taken over 11 shots. However, he has scored 3/11, a remarkable 27% goal-shot percent. That number is even better when looking at shots on target: 3 goals from 8 shots on target. I bet we see that W celebration more.
And finally, all (pseudo-) research includes future research suggestions. I would love to add the entire squad and look at more temporal view of the team—analyzing shot maps across seasons. I also want to look at the last year of Poch’s reign and the first year of Mourinho’s. Since a lot of the key players are still on the team for that span, we can look at the differences between the two managers. However, we should probably look at a random 1-year span of each manager, since managers tend to get sacked for a reason. Last, we could dive further into individual players across time, to see how they develop, and maybe even compare in-form shot maps to out-of-form ones to see if they are unlucky given the xG of their shots or maybe if they’re taking worse shots from bad positions.
In conclusion, Spurs took shots, and I put them in Tableau to find fun stuff.
INTERESTING TIDBITS AND GOALS
I’ve added a few sheets at the end of the Tableau Viz that highlight some interesting/fun/banger goals.
Harry Kane has only ever played on March 5th twice, in 2016 and 2017. But he’s scored absolute BANGERS in both games. One beautiful goal against Arsenal from a crazy angle where he celebrated by sprinting faster than ever and ripping off his facemask (still brings me tears of joy… so much pashun), and one absolute show of strength against Everton, where he holds off defenders before belting the ball from deep past the keeper. The next time March 5th falls on a weekend is 2022 and again in 2023. I’ll be calling up the FA to make sure they schedule Spurs to play Saturday 3/5/2022 and Sunday 3/5/2023.
I also call out Kane’s infamous “claimed” goal vs Stoke. This had a high xG of 0.4587, so if it was an Eriksen goal, it would’ve had a much lower xG…… I’m sure Kane’s daughter is happy.
Vertonghen claimed the world’s second-best assist (behind Tommy Carroll’s assist to Bale) for Son’s Burnley goal. Son’s furthest goal also is fun to see at 0.0147 xG.
Dele’s insane flick-turn-volley against Palace gets a nice mention, as does Dier’s first-ever shot in a Spurs shirt: a stoppage time winner away at West Ham on his debut. Dude’s been oozing Big Dick Dier energy since day 1 at Spurs.

Sorry for how long this is, it kept getting longer and longer. Thanks to all who made it through!
Edited to correct broken links

How You Test Your Betting System

Hey guys, I wrote a little starters guide about testing your betting system I thought may be helpful
I don't want to break any rules so, this is the post - https://valuebettingblog.com/testing-your-betting-system/ But I've pasted it all below so you don't have to leave reddit.
Hopefully its somewhat helpful!
If you don’t know how to test your betting system, you’re flying blind. I’ll breakdown why we test, the forms of testing and the methods you can use.
You could call every stage of betting a form of testing:
While you are gathering information to create the grounding of your system; you’re testing.
Once you have your method and are trialling and backtesting; you’re obviously testing.
Then, when you are using your system, successfully or unsuccessfully, you are also testing with every subsequent bet.
Knowing how to analyse your system is an absolute non-negotiable in creating and maintaining profitable betting systems.

Why We Test (Rigorously)

This seems kind of obvious. If you don’t test something, you don’t know if it works.
But, that is just the beginning. We test comprehensively so that we don’t confuse variance with value.
To best explain how variance can affect our perception, I did a simple calculation:
Bets: 100Odds: 2.00Stake: 1% (proportional staking)Yield: -4%
This system, that is clearly unprofitable long-term, will make a profit 30.82% of the time...
If you were in that 30.82% and you were happy with this measly 100 bet trial, you may as well have not tested at all.
You’d be flying straight into the arms of bankroll bankruptcy as that -4% yield chipped away at your betting account and sanity.
We must test and we must test properly.
Use this spreadsheet to run the same simulation with whatever numbers you want - Profit-Probability

Testing Methods

All three of the listed methods should be used in one way or another.
Notice the absence of popular methods: 'intuition' and 'gut feel'...

Real Test (With A Small Bankroll)

The most simple way to test - trialling your own system with a smaller bankroll. A real test.
I polled some long-term profitable sports bettors for a recent article. There were some surprising answers, but it was no surprise that many of them recommended trialling with a small bankroll before committing any significant money. Sometimes for years.
This doesn’t mean winning 15/20 of the intuitive head to head bets that you placed because you had a good feeling about them. This means using your well-defined system over a period of months, sometimes years, and diligently logging 1000+ bets to validate or invalidate your betting system.
This method is great, it’s simple, and it works. But, it takes a long time. Spending years only to find your system is unprofitable would be wholly demoralising.
Betting volume is key here, if you are able to find ten value bets a day that fit the criteria of your system, you can get valuable, consequential data of 1000 bets logged in just over three months. But if not, it can be a slog.
This is where the backtest method is valuable.

Backtest

Luckily, every sports result and thousands of in-depth stats are available for free to every single one of you. It’s a beautiful ever-updated resource called the Internet.
The secret to testing and improving a system is simply to spend time going through past results and trying to find trends in the statistics.
Here is an example (don't use it):
Start with something to test - Over the past 500 games, Team A wins what % of games when the weather is below 15 Celsius?
First, you'll log the last 500 relevant games, using fbref.com for Football, bbref.com for Basketball, or any other database of results. Then, put all the relevant weather conditions into the same spreadsheet, giving you a correlation; in this case, it'll be a %.
55% of the time Team A wins in sub-15-celsius conditions. They must just love that cold weather and have superior weatherproof gloves than the rest of the competition...
With a 55% probability of occurring all we need to breakeven is odds of $1.82. If we can find odds of $2.00 we have clearly found odds above the required.
There are plenty above 2.00? Cool, now we’re rich.
Let’s be clear, this is a terrible inconsequential metric to backtest - but, the theory is that simple.
Oftentimes you will need to be testing multiple metrics against each other for 1000+ bets and failing many times before you find a system that succeeds with enough bet volume to be worth your time.
The benefit of backtesting is that you can spend the time doing it, right now. If you are trialling a system in real-time, you are waiting to log results week by week and season by season. Backtesting allows you to commit and spend as much time as you can right now finding a successful system.

Closing Line Testing

Across the board, there is no one smarter than the market. No One. More specifically, the market when it closes.
Over the long-term, the closing line; the odds at which the market closes, is analogous to the true probability of an event (minus the bookmaker margin). This is called the CLV (Closing Line Value) and it gives us something to compare ourselves to.
This general accuracy of the closing line is a product of many things:
First, the bookmaker publishes odds which they believe to reflect the true probability of an event, using the huge amount of resources at their disposal.
Next, bettors from all over the world bet on those odds. Recreational punters and serious punters.
Recreational punters bet on either side of the event, usually without much method. This barely affects the odds unless the bookmaker has made an obvious error.
Then, we have serious bettors, using their own analysis to find fault and value in the bookmaker odds - bookmakers react to the incoming bets, using these actions of highly regarded profitable bettors to help adjust the odds to the mutually calculated 'true odds' of the event.
It is essentially a battle between bookmakers and serious bettors, fighting it out to work out what the true probability of an event is. With a sea of recreational punters inconsequentially dancing around them and throwing cash at the bookmaker. A dizzying image.
That range between where the odds began and where they closed is where the value is.
To be clear, it’s not impossible to win money purely betting the closing odds. But, it is extremely hard. You are not only contending with the bookmaker’s initial analysis, but you are also contending with other serious sports bettors, the added information gathered by the bookmaker since the first odds were published, and the bookmaker margin.
So, the key to measuring yourself and your ability against the closing line is simple:

Record the odds at which you placed the bet
Record the closing line odds
Calculate the bookmaker margin
Calculate your implied yield
Repeat 100’s of time...

For example, your system identified a market in which you believed the odds should have been 1.90-2.00, but you found odds of 2.05, a clear value bet based on your system.
The market then closed at 1.96, after removing the bookmaker margin of 2% the true implied odds would be 2.00.
Then to calculate the true yield you achieved, simply do: 2.05/2.00 = 2.5%
You have beaten the true closing line by 2.5%
Joseph Buchdahl wrote a great piece on Closing Line Value, showing the efficacy of testing against closing lines - Using the closing line to test your skill in betting.
Closing Line Value, as a theory, isn't bulletproof. But, it's strong and it may be the most reliable measure we have to test our systems.

Other Things To Test

Even a profitable system can be a failing system, let me explain how:

Time/Yield Ratio

Your time has a $ value. This is where the trialling method comes in.
If you spend two hours a day analysing markets and placing bets, and your average daily profit is $30, you are judging one hour of your time to be worth $15 - is that what your time is worth?
You have to know the cost in time and effort that is required by your betting system. Trial the system, see how long it takes you to place bets, compare odds, calculate stakes, and then evaluate the true cost of doing business.

Volume

So often neglected when people describe their betting systems. Volume > Yield.
Obviously, it's more nuanced than that. But, I'll take a system with a 2-3% yield with multiple bets per day over a system with a 10% yield but that only provides one bet per week. Every time.
The lower the volume, the longer it takes to test, and the longer it takes to compound your bankroll. If it's taking you three years to log 500 bets, your edge could be lost before you even get to profit from it.

Life/Bet Balance

You've backtested your system, it works, it's got the volume, the yield, and takes very little ongoing maintenance. You're all set, right?
Not quite. I bet on ITF tennis, many of those markets are released while late at night over here in Melbourne. Luckily, the odds often hold and I'm also a bit of a night owl. It's not a problem for me.
But, if you have to stay up to use your system, you have to evaluate whether it's worth it. If you work 9-5 and have to keep your phone ready during the day, that could threaten your job. You might not want to be checking your phone while spending time with your family in the afternoons. All things that need to be considered.
We are slaves to bookmakers and when they make odds available. Sometimes, your system just won't fit your life (so give it to me).

Bookmaker Availability

We all know this one, bookies don't like your winning system. They also have the power to cripple it.
Most bookmakers will limit or ban you for winning regularly and consistently in large volumes. Your backtests don't account for that, your small bankroll trials don't account for that.
First, assess how many bookmakers your system will work with. Then, open accounts with as many bookmakers as possible. The key to not being limited is spreading your bets across multiple bookies. Here is an article detailing some other ways to sidestep bookmaker limits.
Ask other bettors what their experiences are. You won't have to go far to find out that Pinnacle doesn't limit and Paddy Power does, quickly. Here is a list of some 'no limit bookmakers'.
Do your research, testing a system for a year and then being limited within a week would be extremely frustrating.

Conclusion

Are you convinced? Testing diligently is imperative to building a profitable method.
All a bit too much? There always is the option to outsource your betting analysis to a tipster or service. For that, I'll direct you to this article - Find The Best Tipsters (A Sceptics Guide)
A rigid plan and framework for building your betting system would be:

Backtest your initial hypothesis, over a month, year, and multi-year period. Analyse closing lines for the backtested data.
Trial your system with a small bankroll and reach 1000 bets. Analyse all bets against the closing line.
Compare your backtest with your trial. Did your backtest have any oversights?
Analyse the human aspects of your system. Were the bets too time-consuming to place? Did it cut into your family time?
Analyse the logistics. How available were bookmakers, have you been told they are quick to limit? Is there enough volume?
Decide if it's worth it.
~~Profit~~

Time-consuming? Yeah. Important? YES.
Good luck with your betting systems.
Coming Soon - 'Testing Your Betting System: Advanced Guide'. In this guide, we will delve into P-Value, Forward Testing, and Blind Testing. Subscribe to be notified.
Happy (Value) Betting

N0tBr0ke Personal Scouting 1 Round Mock Draft with Write-Ups v1

INTRODUCTION:
Hello all and happy holidays!
I finally got around to making my first in depth one round mock draft of the year based solely on my own personal scouting. To be clear about what this is, I am making picks for each team based on what I think of players, and not what will actually happen in the draft or what the consensus on a player is. My end goal in making these is always to match closely to what a redraft would look like in five years, rather than what the board will look like on draft night. I will undoubtedly be wrong about a lot of these picks.
MOCK DRAFT AND WRITE-UPS:
1st Overall - Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence - Clemson - QB
The Rams send not only an extra 1st to Duval, but now the first overall pick. Lawrence boasts not only ideal frame, arm strength, and accuracy, but most notably a quick recognition and ability to distribute the ball quickly and accurately. Given adequate weapons, Lawrence will elevate the play of the offensive line as soon as his first year, and show elite talent to methodically matriculate the ball as well as threaten defenses with the deep passing game. The Jaguars get an elite day 1 starter with all-time great potential. An easy pick.
2nd Overall - New York Jets - Justin Fields - Ohio State - QB
With Lawrence now off the table, the decision to move on from Darnold is slightly less obvious. For a rebuilding club, there are many options available at the second overall pick that would make a lot of sense, but as the Jets GM I still elect to grab my franchise quarterback. Fields may be raw, but the talent he possesses won’t be found in many other prospects, in this draft or subsequent classes. His elite combination of arm strength and accuracy alone is one of the most reliable traits when projecting to the next level, and his top tier athleticism and escapability will go a long way in masking his deficiencies between the ears. If the past 5 drafts have shown us anything, is that quarterbacks with Fields’ talent can be developed and thrive in the NFL, and success at the next level can often rely more on the situation they are put in. With a boatload of picks in the next two drafts and an inevitable coaching change, Fields can certainly be a star quarterback for the Jets.
3rd Overall - Cincinnati Bengals - Penei Sewell - Oregon - OT
After the Burrow injury, all eyes in Cincinnati turned towards the draft, and more specifically one name: Penei Sewell. At this point, no one questions the fit, and arguably the best player available fits a desperate need. Sewell already boasts NFL ready technique in a hulking 6’6” 330 pound frame. His footwork is clean and quick, his grip is nearly inescapable when he gets a hold on defenders, and he moves bodies with ease in the run game. With Jonah Williams continuously fighting injury on top of the already apparent need on the line, the Bengals can’t pass on Sewell. Burrow gets his protector and Cincy possibly sees the second coming of Anthony Munoz.
4th Overall - Carolina Panthers - Caleb Farley - Virginia Tech - CB
With the departure of James Bradberry in the offseason, cornerback became a dire need for the Panthers. Luckily, in a strong corner class, Caleb Farley can help assuage the Panthers’ secondary woes and help Matt Rhule along in his defensive rebuild. Farley not only projects as a lockdown corner at the next level, but possesses the top tier athleticism, awareness, and ball skills to potentially be the NFL’s next great ballhawk. Farley’s footwork is a little rough around the edges, but strong overall, using his leverages and fluid hips to stay in his receivers’ pocket through the route. In zone coverage, he is aggressive and instinctive, where he can often be burned, but more often make a strong play on the ball and break up passes. However, where he justifies the fourth overall pick, is in his closing speed and ball skills. Once the ball is in the air, Farley shows the ability to close separation in an instant, and turn himself into the receiver without taking penalties. For the Panthers, Farley’s floor is interesting, but his ceiling is higher than almost anyone since Jalen Ramsey. Carolina not only gets a steady corner, but potentially a complete game changer at one of the most important positions in football.
5th Overall - Atlanta Falcons - Patrick Surtain II - Alabama - CB
The Falcons find themselves once again in the no man's land of the NFL this year: not fully rebuilding, not coming close to contending. As such, there are many directions the Falcons could go with the fifth overall pick. I won’t mince words, I have hated the Falcons drafting over the last few seasons, and they routinely take the players I think are overrated. So despite having drafted a few cornerbacks in recent years, I think it’s still enough a need to address again this year. Patrick Surtain II is a very different prospect from Farley, relying mainly on his veteran level intelligence and polish to lock down some of the best receivers in college. Surtain’s excellent use of leverage, as well as strong hand technique and avoidance of wasted steps allows him to stay perfectly in phase from the line of scrimmage and use his length and athleticism to break up passes. Like Okudah in last year’s draft, it may take him a year or so to learn the tendencies of NFL receivers, but Surtain projects to be a strong CB1 with elite upside in a league where top tier corners are becoming more and more valuable.
6th Overall - Miami Dolphins (via Houston) - Devonta Smith - Alabama - WR
The Dolphins are building a deep, fundamentally sound team in South Beach, and with a gifted top 10 pick from Houston they are primed to address their biggest remaining need: talent on offense. Luckily, my top wide receiver, Devonta Smith, is nothing but talent. Smith is one of the smartest route runners coming out of the draft in a long, long time, he has some of the best hands since Odell, and has more than enough speed to outrun the leagues top corners when he needs to. Additionally, after the catch, he is a threat to take any slant or screen to the house. All reports are that he is humble, dedicated, and intelligent and should be a strong interview for any team considering him. Frame is the only concern for Smith, with some worry about durability at the next level, but I refuse to pass on a talent like this. Devonta Smith honestly might be the best prospect in the class, and recreating the Tua/Smith connection is too good to pass up.
7th Overall - Philadelphia Eagles - Micah Parsons - Penn State - ILB
The Eagles don’t often place a high importance on the linebacker position, and would more likely take a receiver or corner with this pick, but to me Parsons has fallen too far for the Eagles to pass on. Parsons falls into the mould of ‘freak athlete’ that always entices NFL scouts, but where he differs from past top linebackers is between the ears in his play recognition. Parsons routinely is able to sniff out play calls from a mile away and use his explosiveness and fluidity to rip through offenses for TFL’s and PBU’s. He has stopping power in the downhill run game, and the ability to quickly navigate traffic east and west to make a play. In coverage, he is intelligent reading the quarterback’s eyes, and can break on the ball quickly. I don’t think I’m getting carried away by saying Parsons is the best linebacker prospect since Wagner and Keuchely, and is the kind of guy you build your defensive system around. It may not be the most pressing need for Philadelphia, but it's a fit you aren’t going to get anywhere else in any draft, so you take it if it’s there.
8th Overall - Dallas Cowboys - Jaycee Horn - South Carolina - CB
And here goes the final of my top cornerbacks, and not a moment too soon. The Cowboys secondary was hurting bad before Byron Jones left, and now they are left with next to nothing. Jaycee Horn isn’t as sure a prospect as Farley or Surtain, but no doubt has as high a ceiling and maybe higher. Horn is a physical, fluid corner that can frustrate a receivers gameplan and routinely keep the game in front of him. His footwork could be refined, as he can take some false steps, but he makes up for it with fantastic hand usage to jam at the line. When he is at his best technically, he can lean on his size and athleticism to make plays on the ball and create a few turnovers in the process. A top 10 selection may be a slight reach, as I have a top 15 grade on him, but for a team with this big a need at the position, Horn is well worth the pick.
9th Overall - Los Angeles Chargers - Jalen Mayfield - Michigan - OT
This may be my first big hot take of the mock, with many mocking Mayfield as low as the second round but to me Mayfield is the Jedrick Wills of this class; a fitting comparison as Wills was similarly given a second round grade for much of the 2019 season. Mayfield is a true technician at the right tackle spot, with near flawless footwork, a strong base, and reliable hands. In pass protection, Mayfield has an extremely high floor, and is almost guaranteed to be a quality starter. In the run game, he lacks the ability to truly move players off their spot, but makes up for it with great technique to wall defenders off and speed getting to his spots and stealing leverage. The Chargers need to rebuild their line for Herbert, and Mayfield would be a very reliable anchor at either tackle spot even in year one. In no way does this completely fix their line, but this pick is a very strong start for a team that really can’t afford to not address the need.
10th Overall - New York Giants - Ja’marr Chase - LSU - WR
Despite opting out of the season, Chase remains one of the top receivers in the class, and in strong contention for the top receiver spot. His route running is already elite, and packaged with a big frame and jump ball ability Chase has likely the highest floor of any receiver in the past few drafts. His speed doesn’t impress on its own, but Chase is already a master at tailoring his routes to the technique and leverage of DB’s to generate separation. With Saquon set to return in 2021 and the offensive line steadily improving, the Giants need a go-to target to take the top off of defenses and take pressure off of Saquon and Daniel. Chase is a great fit in that role, as he can just as easily find separation underneath as he can haul in fifty-fifty balls on deep throws.
11th Overall - Detroit Lions - Patrick Jones II - Pittsburgh - EDGE
The 2021 EDGE class lacks the true top 10 talent that past drafts had, but there are a few interesting names to watch between the first and second rounds. To me, however, there is none with the upside of Patrick Jones II. For many this pick is a reach, I understand, but Jones’ combination of speed, strength, length, motor, and bend is too rare to pass up for a team like the Lions that needs a game-changer. Jones leans heavily on the bull rush, a skill that doesn’t always translate to the next level, but his raw power to move big tackles inspires confidence that even NFL tackles will have a difficult time anchoring down. But what’s underrated about his game to me is the flashes of diversity and intelligence he shows in rushing the passer. The more you watch Patrick Jones the more you see well executed rip moves, spins, and more generally the ability to attack with a plan and execute at a high level. When tackles adjust to his bull rush, he starts to attack the outside with speed. When tackles adjust to his speed, he counters inside. If all else fails, he pulls out his length and bend to dip even farther around the corner. Is he a polished prospect? Not even close. But he is absolutely relentless rushing the passer, and possesses every raw tool you could ask for on a wishlist. He shows more than enough technical polish to inspire confidence that he can improve, and the ceiling to be a true game changing pass rusher is certainly there.
12th Overall - San Francisco 49ers - Creed Humphrey - Oklahoma - iOL
Ok, I know mocking a quarterback at the very next pick is probably not what 49ers fans want to see. I understand. However, this pick to me does two things: takes the best player available and strengthens a strength, which to me is not a bad thing at all. Whether at guard or center, Humphrey shows elite strength, speed, and awareness in all facets of the game. In pass protection, he has the awareness to find the right work when uncovered and the anchor, strength, and footwork to fortify pocket integrity when covered. In the run game, he can get to his spot very quickly, steal leverages, and move bodies as he pleases. He can pull with the best of them and get to the second level to break big runs. I was so, so close to mocking a quarterback here, but Humphrey is too good to pass up. A true quarterback of the offensive line, a game changer in the run game, and an overall stud. No matter who is at quarterback, Shanahan’s run game is the team’s identity and the star of the show. I’ll reluctantly run it back with Jimmy G for a year and know that my offensive line is set to do what the 49ers do best for the foreseeable future.
13th Overall - Denver Broncos - Kyle Trask - Florida - QB
You know, I don’t hate Drew Lock. Maybe, just maybe, he has a big year in him next season. But when looking at the Broncos needs moving forward, I am pretty high on the team they have put together on paper. A solid offensive line, a ton of weapons, good defensive line (when healthy), some playmakers in the secondary. I think with a healthy season and a reliable quarterback they can be a lot closer to a playoff team than many think. Enter Kyle Trask. Often being lost in the weeds with other intriguing prospects in this class, I think Trask possesses two skills that set him above the rest: accuracy when mechanics fail and throwing with anticipation. After the top two quarterbacks in this class, no one really has great mechanics and Trask is no exception. Trask has a very bad habit of not setting his feet under pressure, often bringing his left foot back and throwing from a standing position falling away. But unlike other prospects, Trask still somehow manages to throw on target and with anticipation anyways. He can throw basically all with his arm and still drop a dime downfield to a streaking receiver. Additionally, without pressure in his face, Trask maintains a very solid base, and shows very solid mechanics all around. He can read defenses very well and throw his players open in a way few in this class can, and has shown production against the highest levels of competition. He may never be a dynamic quarterback, but he is more than capable of being what Tannehill has been for the Titans, and with the weapons Denver possesses, that could be more than enough to revive this offense.
14th Overall - Minnesota Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker - USC - OG
One of my favorite prospects in the class, Vera-Tucker really is the complete package at guard. A fantastic blend of technical mastery and athletic talent projects the USC guard as a plug and play impact starter at the next level. You will rarely find a snap where Vera-Tucker doesn’t show an exceptional base and footwork, a strong punch, and leg drive to move bodies in the run game. He is equally as quick as he is strong, and can easily play the zone running scheme that Minnesota often leans on to generate offense. The Vikings have succeeded for years despite poor offensive line play, and additions such as Vera-Tucker really could be the missing pieces to helping them graduate to true contender status. The skill is there offensively for Minnesota, but a great offensive line could unlock something even more.
15th Overall - New England Patriots - Tamorrion Terry - Florida State - WR
How many times are we going to let receivers with this kind of talent fall to the second round? There were concerns over Metcalf’s route running, there were concerns over Claypool’s route running, and now there are similar concerns about Terry. As a route runner he is raw without a doubt, doesn’t know how to manipulate leverages yet, or set up defenders at the line of scrimmage. But like the aforementioned second round receivers, Terry can do one thing very few receivers can: consistently win with athleticism. Terry is a 6’4” speed demon with a long reach and stellar vertical. Additionally, he is a very fluid athlete with shifty lateral quickness to win on routes and create after the catch. He wins foot races against speedy corners just as easily as he goes over big corners for fifty-fifty balls. Terry will never be Metcalf, but he is a true playmaker that projects very well to the modern NFL. The Patriots need talent on offense very badly, and while in his rookie year Terry may or may not not have someone to throw him the ball, once New England does find their quarterback of the future, Terry will quickly become his favorite target.
16th Overall - Chicago Bears - Liam Eichenberg - Notre Dame - OT
It’s true that the Bears have a strong need at the quarterback positions, but without a player I’m confident in taking here I feel very good about addressing another dire need on the offensive line. For all of Nagy’s faults, it’s hard to generate offense without an offensive line, and the Bears line has been underwhelming for quite a while. Eichenberg boasts a high floor and clear ability to play either tackle positions on day one. He isn’t the athlete that many look for at the position, but he more than makes up for it with strong fundamentals and plenty of experience. Eichenberg’s strong footwork is fully on display against the interior pass rush, where he stout, and can casually ride defenders around the outside to allow his quarterback to step up in the pocket. You won’t see many pancakes in the run game, but a strong base and core strength allow him to wall off defenders and create lanes for his running back on a consistent basis. A sure pass protector and a solid run blocker, Eichenberg is a very strong, albeit unexciting pick for a Bears club that desperately needs an unexciting player to help the entire offense elevate its game.
17th Overall - Las Vegas Raiders - Marvin Wilson - Florida State - DT
The first year in Las Vegas has been a bit of a roller coaster for the team, often looking like contenders then subsequently making the Jets look competent. Ultimately, it seems Gruden is building something good for the black and silver and really the team should just stay the course and keep building the same way they have been. When it comes to the defensive line, Wilson is exactly what the doctor ordered. He possesses rare speed and burst for a man his size, and impresses with a handful of well executed pass rushing moves to create pressure from the interior. Quick off the ball, Wilson can eat one on one matchups for breakfast in a myriad of ways. His use of hands allows him to capitalize on his athletic advantage and put himself in a position to either bull rush defenders or open the door to the outside and win on leverage. He could improve his approach to double teams, as he often fails to get low enough to anchor down, but there is no doubt he has the tools to succeed when doubled. WIlson can take a lot of the pressure off of Las Vegas’ young edge rushers, and generate coveted pressure from the interior that can disrupt even the most mobile quarterbacks.
18th Overall - Baltimore Ravens - Wyatt Davis - Ohio State - OG
With the retirement of Marshall Yanda, guard has become a significant hole on what is otherwise a stout group on the offensive line. The Ravens offense relies heavily on putting defenders in conflict using Lamar Jackson’s dual threat abilities and the speed of the weapons around him. To me, even more than their other needs, the Ravens need to re-establish a dominant run game to take pressure off of Lamar and the best way to address this need is to draft a powerful, stout guard in Wyatt Davis. Davis pops off the tape with strength and ability to anchor in pass protection and move bodies in the run game. He is very quick to perform difficult reach blocks and steal leverage away from defenders to create holes in the run game. In the run game his footwork is top tier, and he shows the tenacity to be a plus blocker at the next level. My only small concern with him is his footwork in pass protection, where he sometimes swings his outside foot back and allows defenders to ‘open the door’ on him, but this isn’t a significant issue that will show up often on tape. Overall, Davis would be a key piece in establishing a run game in Baltimore to allow Harbaugh to run his option heavy offense off of and give Lamar all the tools he needs to get back to MVP form.
19th Overall - Washington Football Team - Terrace Marshall Jr. - LSU - WR
Marshall unfortunately spent most of his career at LSU behind Chase and Jefferson, the latter of whom is already dominating the NFL as a rookie, but early in the season Marshall proved that he himself is a top receiver prospect serving as the WR1 for a rebuilding LSU squad. In his short 2020 stint, he showed top tier route running, very solid hands, and good use of his large frame to box out defenders. Ultimately, Marshall should project as a similar player to someone like Allen Robinson. He will routinely win on route running alone, despite lacking elite athleticism at the position, and will come down with the majority of the fifty-fifty balls thrown his way. For a Washington club that struggles passing to anyone not named Terry McLauren, Marshall is a perfect fit as a very good ‘X’ receiver to compliment McLauren’s speed and quickness. He should be a red-zone machine, as well as a very dependable target to move the chains. WFT gets a great player at a major need, who would likely be gone at pick 19 in most draft classes.
20th Overall - Arizona Cardinals - Deommodore Lenoir - Oregon - CB
The Cardinals have all the pieces of a team with a great future, starting with the head coach and quarterback, but with Patrick Peterson showing signs of aging and no good options opposite him, outside cornerback has become a serious position of need. Enter the oft underrated Deommodore Lenoir. As an athlete, Lenoir boasts everything you could want in a corner except size. He is a speedy and fluid athlete and shows the strength and willingness to jam receivers at the line of scrimmage. Lenoir’s game is characterized by his aggressive approach, choosing to attack defenders rather than play passively and showing the athleticism and ball skills to attack passes in the air. Technically, Lenoir shows solid, but improvable footwork to stay in phase with defenders man to man, and good instincts and vision in zone to stay on his assignments and break up passes. If you draft Lenoir, you are drafting the athlete more so than the player, but by no means is Lenoir a raw corner. The Cardinals get a great athlete with solid fundamentals that can develop and become a good complement to Peterson and Murphy, and may eventually be able to truly step into the CB1 role.
21st Overall - Miami Dolphins - C.J. Verdell - Oregon - RB
My hottest take of the draft by far. I don’t think I’ve heard much buzz about Verdell as a top running back, but to me I see all the tools to be an elite back at the NFL level. On tape, the most impressive trait Verdell flashes is his top tier burst and explosiveness. When C.J. decides to hit a hole, he is through it in an instant. A true slasher, Verdell can make one cut and take any play to the house even against some of the fastest, most stout defenses. He may not be the strongest back outright, but moving at top speed he is a sledge hammer between the tackles, and can navigate through traffic to find space and fall forwards for extra yards. As far as vision, Verdell shows both good and bad on tape. As a downhill runner, Verdell can often get tunnel vision and miss open opportunities to bounce runs outside. This may improve with NFL coaching, as Oregon runs a very downhill rushing attack, but it is still a concern going into the draft. But, conversely, within the rushing scheme, C.J. shows very quick recognition of run fits to find the open lane almost instantly, hitting it at top speed with his eyes up to make an extra cut. The ceiling for a back like Verdell is very, very high and his athleticism alone makes him a solid bet to translate to the next level. He reminds me a lot of a young Dalvin Cook: an explosive one-cut slasher with home run ability. If he can put on a little extra muscle and improve his shiftiness in space, Verdell might be the steal of the draft. The Dolphins need elite talent to surround Tua with, and Verdell very well might fit the bill to a tee.
22nd Overall - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Rashawn Slater - Northwestern - OT
The Buccaneers look like one of the most complete rosters in the NFL in 2020, with talent at nearly every position group, but the offensive line remains a work in progress. Wirfs has been very impressive at right tackle in his rookie campaign, but improvement at left tackle and the guards positions would go a long way in helping Brady and/or his successor mount a superbowl run. Rashawn Slater enters the draft as a strong, technically sound tackle prospect that should find immediate success in the NFL just as Wirfs has on the other side. His footwork is extremely polished already: playing angles perfectly, quick to adjust to changes in direction, always in a position to get his hands on a defender and ride them outside around the pocket. hands. In the run game, Slater is ‘sticky’ and can control his defenders with a wide base and a great punch. His intelligence knowing leverages and blocking angles allows him to wall off defenders and create running lanes, even if he doesn’t move people off their spot. He shows above average awareness in pass protection, recognizing stunts and twists quickly and powering down his feet to brace for the twisting defender. Slater should be another plug and play tackle in a strong and deep tackle class.
23rd Overall - Indianapolis Colts - Chris Olave - Ohio State - WR
With T.Y. Hilton having a resurgence the last few weeks, I was tempted to change this pick, but at 31 with injury history, I’m not sure Hilton’s play prevents me from drafting a guy like Olave. Much like former Ohio State receiver Terry McLauren, Olave shows very good route running and superior athleticism that projects him as a dynamic receiver at the next level. He isn’t a technical machine that many expect of ‘good’ route runners, but Olave shows exceptional awareness of leverages, defensive schemes, and techniques that allows him to tailor routes to the defense he sees in front of him. He always seems to know exactly what he should be doing and where he should be going to get separation and give his quarterback a window to throw into. He uses his speed to generate big plays down the field, his awareness projects him as a good red zone and third down threat, and his hands are reliable enough to gain the trust of a veteran quarterback like Rivers. Olave would be a great complement next to the big bodied Pittman, and he brings a lot of the awareness that made Hilton such a great receiver in his prime.
24th Overall - Cleveland Browns - Kwity Paye - Michigan - EDGE
How long have the Browns been looking for a long term answer opposite Myles Garrett? Kwity Paye projects as a quick, technical edge rusher that can capitalize on one-on-one matchups created by Garrett’s presence. At 6’4” with decently long arms, Paye has the length to play against the NFL’s top tackles, despite looking a bit smaller on tape. The most impressive aspect of Paye’s game to me is his hand-usage, which is very active and technically sound. Tackles routinely struggle to get their hands on him, which allows him to use his speed to take the outside shoulder and get a hand on the quarterback. He is patient and efficient on stunts, once again using speed and motor to find open space and generate pressure. In the run game, he is once again disruptive when he can get penetration, but often lacks the strength to compete with well executed tackle play. Opposite Myles Garrett, Paye should be able to generate enough pressure to make life easy for a young and sometimes porous Cleveland secondary and maybe even take pressure off of Garrett himself and allow him to be even more dominant. I don’t expect Paye to ever be an elite rusher, but he has a high floor to be a disruptive presence at the end position, and a much needed partner in crime to the former 1st overall pick.
25th Overall - Jacksonville Jaguars (via LA Rams) - Pat Freiermuth - Penn State - TE
In a very good tight end class, with some elite, elite athleticism, I opt to go with what I believe are more translatable traits in Pat Freiermuth, namely intelligence and blocking. Freiermuth is far from the flashiest tight end in this class, but his awareness of both offensive and defensive scheme is second to none in this class or any of the previous classes in recent memory. As a route runner, Freiermuth is an expert manipulating leverage a la Travis Kelce to be the reliable safety valve for his quarterback. He can create separation down the field as well with strong, subtle route running and excellent use of his large frame. He is an extremely reliable red zone threat, routinely finding open space in zone and boxing out defenders to make tight catches. In the run game, he isn’t elite technically, but his awareness of blocking schemes allows him to be in the perfect place at the right time on trap blocks and getting to the second level. He is a true three down tight end that won’t tip your hand to the defense about your play call. More so than any prospect in recent classes, Freiermuth has all the tools necessary to fall into the mould of a Kelce or Witten. Nothing too flashy, but elite at doing their jobs. Lawrence to Freiermuth has some chance of becoming the next Mahomes to Kelce. There is a very, very good argument for placing different tight end at this spot, or another player at a different position of need for Jacksonville, but I can’t shake the feeling Freiermuth is going to be special.
26th Overall - New York Jets (via Seattle) - Najee Harris - Alabama - RB
I know he is only the second running back on my board, and I know the Jets probably need help elsewhere more than at running back, but I am in love with Najee Harris as a prospect. There just isn’t anything he isn’t great at. His vision is exceptional, with both good immediate play recognition and great patience to follow his blocks to generate an even bigger play. His balance and agility are elite, shedding and side stepping tackles with apparent ease. Harris is just as powerful between the tackles as he is quick in bouncing outside, with no wasted motion in either facet of his game. He is a strong receiving option as well, with sure hands and solid route running/awareness. The Jets will have an opportunity to grab another player shortly with their high second round pick, so I feel good grabbing the best player on the board. Harris will do a ton to make the offensive line better in the run game, and additionally take pressure off of Fields so defenses can’t tee off on the passing game. The dynamic of Harris and Fields in both the rushing attack and the passing game would make me feel a lot better about the future of the Jets offense, and maybe take some of the sting away from missing out on Lawrence.
27th Overall - Tennessee Titans - Gregory Rousseau - Miami - EDGE
I’ll be honest, I never understood the top 10 hype for Rousseau, but for a team that is desperate for help rushing the passer, I am more than willing to take a chance on his physical traits. Rousseau most notably possesses ideal length for the position at 6’7” with long arms to compete with NFL caliber tackles. Rousseau boasts natural, functional strength with a very powerful bull rush, and similarly anchors down well in the run game. He is moderately quick for his size, and while he won’t be a significant speed threat outside at the next level, has enough speed to keep tackles guessing. Where Rousseau doesn’t stack up to other rushers in this class is in his technique and awareness, where he shows a one track mind on tape. Outside of his bull rush, Rousseau rarely rushes with a plan, often leaning too heavily on his strength and frame to win reps outright. His hands are often very passive and unrefined, where he often fails to keep punches off his chest. Rousseau needs to develop consistent technique, build some flexibility, and maybe an inside move to diversify his attack before he can be an impact player at the next level, but the tools are there. The Titans get a stout run defender in the short term who may be able to generate pressure and a handful of sacks on talent alone. With some coaching, however, Rousseau has more than enough upside to be a plus pass rusher.
28th Overall - Pittsburgh Steelers - Christian Darrisaw - Virginia Tech - OT
With Big Ben’s recent play, a quarterback would make a lot of sense here. However, I opt instead to deal with a once great offensive line that needs a few pieces to return to former glory. Darrisaw would slot in very nicely at right tackle next to the aging Villanueva, and could potentially be a replacement at left tackle in the future. Darrisaw stands at 6’5” 313 lbs, and uses all of his frame to play with power and stability. While his feet can be choppy, his functional strength makes it tough for defenders to move him even when they get an extra step on him. His grip, when his punches land, is difficult to break, allowing Darrisaw to maintain control even when he has lost some leverage. In this run game, he could still use refinement technically, especially with his hands, but he shows flashes of being a true people mover with ‘pancaking’ upside. Again, there is some concern about his speed fighting off outside moves, but his strength alone is worth developing, and with even slightly more fluid footwork he could be a stalwart tackle in this league for many years. The Steelers need to improve their run game to take pressure off of Ben and the receiving core, and the future at the tackle position needs to be addressed. Darrisaw shows the upside on tape to help with both issues.
29th Overall - New Orleans Saints - Andre Cisco - Syracuse - S
Arguably the most complete roster in the league, New Orleans more or less has the freedom to take the best player available, depending on what you think of Hill and Winston as potential Brees replacements. To me, Cisco is one of the best ‘under the radar’ players in this class for his high end awareness playing a ‘robber’ type strong safety role. Despite versatility to play free safety as well, Cisco shows elite talent at reading the eyes of the quarterback, diagnosing play calls, and breaking on routes for PBU’s and interceptions. He is likely one of the hardest hitters in this class, and can knock balls loose over the middle with clean contact after the catch. As a free safety, he shows similar awareness playing the true center field role, and has decent speed to play sideline to sideline, but will likely have a lot more success playing the role that Vonn Bell played before leaving for the Cincinnati. Cisco is a ‘do it all’ safety with elite intelligence and closing speed to be a ball hawk and bruiser in the New Orleans secondary. The Saints defense is rolling already, but Cisco has the potential to do what Minkah Fitzpatrick did for the Steelers and elevate the play of everyone around him. If the offense can just do enough with Kamara and Thomas, this defense can carry them to Payton’s second superbowl with the club.
30th Overall - Buffalo Bills - Asante Samuel Jr. - Florida State - CB
Samuel Jr. isn’t the flashiest pick at the cornerback position, but for a team ready to compete and a defense having a bit of a down year, a high foor pick like Asante may be just what the team needs. Opposite an All-Pro in Tre White, Samuel is more than capable of being a very reliable, intelligent CB2 from day one. His footwork and fluidity are top tier coming out of college and easily NFL caliber already, which is unsurprising given his NFL pedigree. Samuel is quick recognizing routes, and is not easily fooled by double moves or trickery at the line of scrimmage. With the ball in the air, Samuel is a dynamic athlete who can make plays on the ball and close on receivers quickly to break up passes. There isn’t really much more to say about Samuel. Arguably one of the safest picks in the draft, you know you are getting an NFL caliber corner who won’t be beat easily and will chime in with enough PBU’s and turnovers to make this pick more than worthwhile. Really a perfect pick for where the Bills are right now.
31st Overall - Green Bay Packers - Amon-Ra St. Brown - USC - WR
Reuniting the St. Brown brothers, the Packers get easily the best receiver in the family tree. While only 6’1”, St. Brown plays bigger than his frame, but also possesses the speed and route running to be a dynamic threat down the field and in open space. With very sure hands and a large catch radius, St. Brown will quickly gain the trust of Rodgers (or Love potentially) and become the ‘go-to’ second option in Green Bay overnight. His route running is very crisp and nuanced, and he shows great ability to set up defenders and move them away from his eventual route. After the catch, St. Brown is quick and hard to tackle, demonstrating very solid yards after the catch ability in the screen or jet sweep game. Although I’m not sure his big play ability will translate quite as well due to his relative lack of speed, Amon-Ra St. Brown will undoubtedly be a reliable target at the next level in the short and intermediate game, and has enough speed and ball skills to come down with a few deep shots at the NFL level. Adams and MVS have proven to be a very solid tandem in Green Bay, but the addition of St. Brown adds an extra element to the receiving room, and when you have a quarterback like Rodgers, there is absolutely no such thing as too many weapons.
32nd Overall - Kansas City Chiefs - Rashod Bateman - Minnesota - WR
Many may scoff at the idea of the Chiefs taking a receiver in the first round; after all, they already have the best skill position group in all of football. If anything, that to me proves why the Chiefs should continue investing in weapons for Mahomes: it works! With Watkins likely gone in the offseason, the Chiefs need another reliable, possession receiver to make plays over the middle and move the chains. We’ve seen over the last three years that this formula with Tyreek, Kelce and Watkins isn’t just a contender, but a champion. Bateman brings fluid route running and fantastic hands to the Chiefs, and will haul in any pass regardless of accuracy and separation. Speed is a bit of a limiting factor when it comes to his production, but his athleticism with the ball in the air, and creativeness after the catch make him an ideal fit for what Kansas City needs. Bateman can be yet another red zone threat for the Chiefs, who are already elite at finishing drives, and can put defenses in even more of a bind wondering “how are the Chiefs going to score on us this time?”. Bateman is built to be an ‘X’ receiver, and has the skill to not only fill Watkins’ shoes, but maybe become an even better possession receiver overall, with less of the downfield threat. There is nothing wrong with strengthening your teams’ strengths, especially when that strength is winning you superbowls. Continue to invest in Mahomes, and Kansas City will continue to be a city of champions. It’s that simple.

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Brazilian Big12 series, Episode 12/12: São Paulo

~~Rank~~	~~Team~~	~~P(Win this week)~~	~~P(Win Out)~~	~~E(Wins)~~
1	~~MIA~~	~~81%~~	~~6.5%~~	~~14.6~~
2	NE	~~81%~~	~~5.9%~~	~~14.53~~
3	~~IND~~	~~75%~~	~~5.8%~~	~~14.51~~
4	~~BAL~~	~~75%~~	~~5.3%~~	~~14.43~~

Rank	Team	P(Win this week)	P(Win Out)	E(Wins)
1	MIA	78%	6.2%	14.57
2	IND	75%	5.8%	14.51
3	BAL	82%	5.8%	14.50
4	MIN	65%	5.5%	14.48

Week	Team	Opponent	P(Win)
1	BUF	NYJ	100%
2	TB	CAR	100%
3	CLE	WSH	100%
4	LAR	NYG	100%
5	NO	LAC	100%
6	MIA	NYJ	81%
7	LAC	JAX	73%
8	KC	NYJ	90%
9	NE	@NYJ	76%
10	GB	JAX	88%
11	PIT	@JAX	80%
12	LV	@ATL	62%
13	SEA	NYG	87%
14	SF	WSH	78%
15	TEN	DET	80%
16	BAL	NYG	88%
17	IND	JAX	79%

Previous episodes: Flamengo, Vasco, Fluminense, Grêmio, Botafogo, Atlético Mineiro, Internacional, Corinthians, Santos, Palmeiras, Cruzeiro
In this series I will present each of the 12 Brazilian teams that together compose the "Big 12". My point is to make them more knowledgeable to you, since each one of these teams have their share of the Brazil national team success and of Brazilian club football accomplishments as a whole. I'll try to be as smooth, efficient and non-boring as I can. If the feedback is positive, I'll keep bringing more to this series. So ok, let's do this!
Method: I'll present the teams in a chronological order, from the oldest foundation (Flamengo-1895) to the latest one (São Paulo-1930). The order will be: Flamengo, Vasco, Fluminense, Grêmio, Botafogo, Atlético Mineiro, Internacional, Corinthians, Santos, Palmeiras, Cruzeiro, São Paulo. How many of these have you heard of?
Geographical reference: Before we start, I'd like to ask something very simple from you. I want you to keep in mind that these 12 teams are spread in 4 different States in Brazil. The club's State name is written below, next to the club's name. It has a direct link to Google Maps, so that you can check it out to make this experience more accurate.

Episode 12/12: São Paulo (State: São Paulo), founded in 1930

State rivals: Corinthians, Palmeiras, Santos

Stadium: Morumbi

Mascot: Saint Paul

Major achievements: 3 Intercontinental/Club World Cup (1992, 1993, 2005), 3 Copa Libertadores (1992, 1993, 2005), 6 Brazilian Leagues (1977, 1986, 1991, 2006, 2007, 2008), 1 Supercopa Libertadores (1993)

State League titles: 21 (Against Corinthians' 30, Palmeiras' 23, Santos' 22)

PLAY AND LISTEN TO SÃO PAULO'S ANTHEM WHILE READING - Click here
São Paulo FC, the biggest Brazilian club
São Paulo seems to be the only team in Brazil that has all the major ingredients that make a team, the biggest: lots of international and domestic titles, big fanbase, big stadium, big idols and historical teams. Clubs like Santos or Flamengo come close, but lack one or other ingredient - that's why São Paulo, the only 3x Club World champion and the youngest of the Big12, is considered the biggest club in Brazil!

Brazilian Club	International titles	Domestic titles	Total
São Paulo	12	6	18
Santos	8	9	17
Flamengo	5	12	17
Palmeiras	3	14	17
Cruzeiro	7	10	17
Corinthians	4	11	15
Grêmio	6	8	14

Not only São Paulo leads the title rank, but also the runner-up rank, as you can see below:

Brazilian Club	International runner-ups	Domestic runner-ups	Total
São Paulo	8	8	16
Cruzeiro	9	7	16
Palmeiras	6	5	11
Santos	2	9	11
Internacional	2	8	10
Grêmio	6	4	10

In the entire South America, São Paulo is only behind Boca Juniors and Independiente in international trophies:

South American club	Intercontinental/Club World Cup	Copa Libertadores	Others	Total
Boca Juniors	3	6	9	18
Independiente	2	7	5	14
São Paulo	3	3	6	12
River Plate	1	4	5	10

However, you have to consider that in Argentina there are only 5-7 big clubs (Boca, River, Independiente, San Lorenzo, Racing, Estudiantes, Vélez), while in Brazil there are at least 12, making things more difficult to São Paulo.
São Paulo is also the only Brazilian club to win 3x the Intercontinental/Club World Cup, which is considered their biggest feat:

Event	Match	Goals
Intercontinental Cup 1992	São Paulo 2-1 Barcelona	Raí (2x), Stoichkov
Intercontinental Cup 1993	São Paulo 3-2 Milan	Palhinha, Cerezo, Müller, Massaro, Papin
Club World Cup 2005	São Paulo 1-0 Liverpool	Mineiro

The beginnings
São Paulo was founded in 1930, and accepted people from any origin, social class or ethnicity since their early days. They won their first trophy in 1931, a State League title, led by Friedenreich - who scored 103 goals in 5 years at the club. After a few fusions with other clubs, the team would begin to really shine in the 1940s.
The 1940s: five State League titles
Due to Brazil's huge size and weak infrastructure, there wasn't a National League until 1959 - until then and even afterwards, the State Leagues were the main tournaments.
In the 1940s, São Paulo won 5 of them. At this time, the club also received the nickname "The Dearest Team", because they dared to bring and show a huge São Paulo State Flag in the inauguration of the Pacaembu stadium, in front of 70.000 spectators, including the hated Brazilian dictator Getúlio Vargas.
Leonidas da Silva
The first big idol of the club was Leonidas, present in the 5 State League titles in the 1940s. The Black Diamond had played in two World Cups (1934, 1938) and joined the club in 1942. He scored 140 goals in 212 matches, and retired from football in this same club, in 1950.
It was in this decade that São Paulo gained the respect of the best teams of the city, Palmeiras and Corinthians, who already had 10 State League titles on their account.
In 1943, during a State League draw, a Corinthians' director said that the draw was unnecessary: he flipped a coin and said that if it falls head Palmeiras will be champions, if it falls tail it will be Corinthians. After being questioned about São Paulo, he replied, laughing: "if the coin stands, it will be São Paulo, if it stops in the air, it will be Portuguesa". São Paulo were the champions, and had a huge coin standing on their car during the celebrations at night.
The Steamroller dominated the decade, got the respect of Corinthians and Palmeiras and were now considered a rival. These 3 teams received the nickname of Iron Trio from the media.
1950s-1970: construction of Morumbi, the biggest private stadium in the world
The club destined all their money in the 1950s to the construction of their stadium Morumbi, which would be the biggest private stadium in the world. Without funds to build a strong team, they only won two State Leagues in this period (1953, 1957), with the legendary Hungarian coach Béla Guttmann commanding them in the 1957 title, with 1950 World Cup Golden Ball winner Zizinho on their side.
While São Paulo built their stadium, a young kid named Pelé arrived at Santos, and gave no chance to them, or to the Iron Trio teams in the 1960s.
1970s: back in the game
In this decade, São Paulo won their first Brazilian League title in 1977, and also 3 State Leagues (1970, 1971, 1975), besides one Copa Libertadores runner-up (1974), and one Brazilian League runner-up (1973).
Curiously enough, the 1977 São Paulo wasn't a great team, and nobody bet on them to become Brazilian champions. They beat Atlético Mineiro in the final, on the penalties, after two 0-0 ties. São Paulo missed their first two penalties, but managed to overcome Atlético, who sent three shots away. No São Paulo player was elected to the League's Best XI.
The São Paulo players who stood out in this decade were: Gérson, World Cup champion in 1970, Pedro Rocha, elected to the League's Best XI in 1973, Mirandinha, elected to the League's Best XI in 1973 and called to the 1974 World Cup, Waldir Peres, excellent goalkeeper who won the League Golden Ball in 1975 and played in 3 World Cups (1974, 1978, 1982), Chicão, centre-back who played 312 matches for São Paulo in the 1970s and got called to the 1978 World Cup, and Serginho Chulapa, the club's greatest topscorer, who scored 242 goals in 399 matches for São Paulo between 1973-1982, and played in the 1982 World Cup as a starter, after Careca's injury.
1980s: State dominance
In the 1980s, São Paulo watched their rivals Palmeiras and Santos struggle, as they took home 5 State League titles (1980, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1989).
But it was in the 1986 Brazilian League that São Paulo proved their worth. Led by Careca, they ended the 1st stage undefeated (7W-3D). On the second stage, they kept the good shape, with only 2 defeats in 16 matches, and with 3 wins scoring 5 goals or more.
On the knock-out stage, São Paulo first met Inter de Limeira in the ro16, the current São Paulo State League champions. São Paulo lost the 1st leg 1-2, but gave a 3-0 back in the return leg, with Careca scoring once on each match.
In the quarter-finals, they would play Fluminense, and lost the 1st leg 0-1. In the 2nd leg, Careca opened the score at '67 with this crazy goal, and Müller scored the second ten minutes later.
In the semi-finals, they would face América, a traditional team from Rio de Janeiro, that was big in the old days. América's goalkeeper worked hard, but at '80, Careca finally scored with this shot. In the return leg, Careca scored this genius lob goal from inside the box. The team held América's pressure, and left with a 1-1 tie and the spot in the big final.
The big final would be against Guarani. In the 1st leg at the Morumbi, the topscorers of the tournament, Evair and Careca, scored once each, and the match ended 1-1. The 2nd leg was one of the craziest Brazilian League finals. It ended 1-1 with two own goals, and went to extratime. São Paulo did 2-1 with Pita at '91, but Guarani tied at '97 and scored the 3-2 at '110, with this goal of guts. São Paulo needed a goal in 10 minutes, and at '119, Careca scored to tie the match 3-3 and become the league topscorer. On the penalties, Careca missed São Paulo's first shot, but so did Guarani. São Paulo would score all their 4 other penalties, while Guarani's João Paulo sent it away, so that São Paulo were crowned Brazilian League champions for the 2nd time.
São Paulo had 6 players elected to the League's Best XI: Gilmar, Dario Pereyra, Nelsinho, Bernardo, Pita, and the Golden Ball and league topscorer with 25 goals, Careca.
Also in 1986, São Paulo had 5 players called to the 1986 World Cup, notably the starters Müller and Careca, as well as Oscar, Falcão and Silas. They lost on the penalties to France in the quarter-finals.
1991-1994: Telê Santana Era, the team that dominated the world
Johan Cruyff said, after his Barcelona lost to São Paulo in the 1992 Intercontinental Cup: "if you are to be run over, better be by a Ferrari".
This São Paulo superteam dominated Brazil, South America and the World in these years. They won 2 Intercontinental Cups, 2 Copa Libertadores, 1 Brazilian League, 1 State League, 2 Recopa, 1 Supercopa Libertadores and 1 Copa Conmebol, not to mention the Tereza Herrera (4-1 against Barcelona) and the Ramón de Carranza (4-0 against Real Madrid) in Spain.
Everything started in 1990, with the arrival of Telê Santana, the celebrated Brazil 1982 coach. With him, São Paulo finished 2nd in the Brazilian League, losing to their rival Corinthians on the final.
In 1991, São Paulo began the season in great fashion, winning the Brazilian League by June, with a 67% rate. They led the first stage, then knocked Atlético Mineiro out in the semis after two ties (1-1, 0-0), before beating Bragantino in the final (1-0 and 0-0), with this goal from Tilico on the 1st leg. São Paulo were crowned Brazilian League champions for the 3rd time. Two São Paulo players were elected to the League Best XI: Ricardo Rocha and Leonardo.
On December 1991, São Paulo had their revenge against Corinthians in the State League final: in front of 102.000 spectators at the Morumbi, Raí scored a hat-trick and ended the conversation. 3-0 to São Paulo on the first leg, and a 0-0 tie in the second leg to secure the State League title against Corinthians.
1992: the first Copa Libertadores and Club World titles
In this season, São Paulo won the Copa Libertadores on the first semester, then the Intercontinental Cup and the State League titles on the second.
At the beginning, the coach Telê used the reserves in the Copa Libertadores, considering it a way too disloyal competition. But after a 0-3 defeat and with the pressure from the board to take it seriously, he changed his strategy and qualified from the group stage on the 2nd place, with 3W-2D-1L, behind Criciúma.
São Paulo passed through Nacional (Uruguay) in the ro16 without much problems and 2 wins (1-0, 2-0).
In the quarter-finals, São Paulo suffered, but beat Criciúma 1-0 at home with this goal from Macedo. In the 2nd leg, Criciúma opened the score at '10, but Palhinha tied with this great goal at '55, qualifying his team to the semis.
In the semis against Barcelona (Ecuador), São Paulo smashed them 3-0 at home, with another great goal from Palhinha. In the 2nd leg in Ecuador, São Paulo goalkeeper Zetti performed this huge mistake as Barcelona scored 2-0 at '87, but it was too late and São Paulo qualified to the final.
In the big final against Newell's Old Boys (Argentina), São Paulo lost the 1st leg in Argentina, 0-1. At home, with a crowd of 105.000 at the Morumbi, Raí scored 1-0 from a penalty at '65. The match ended and went to the penalties. The Argentines hit the post on their first shot, but São Paulo lost their third one. The Argentines missed their 4th shot, while Cafu scored. Zetti saved Newell's 5th shot - and São Paulo were crowned South American champions for the first time.
Palhinha was the Copa Libertadores topscorer with 7 goals. This title qualified São Paulo to the Intercontinental Cup, to play against European champions Barcelona in December.
São Paulo 2-1 Barcelona: the 1992 Intercontinental Cup title
In August, São Paulo had already beaten Barça 4-1 for the Tereza Herrera Trophy (5mn video), with Müller scoring this nice goal. Four months later, they would meet in Tokyo for the Intercontinental Cup trophy.
Bulgarian Stoichkov opened the score at '12 with this amazing goal. São Paulo, led by Raí, quickly dominated the match and tied at '27: Müller did a great Cruyffesque turn and assisted Raí to score. Minutes later, Müller almost scored this great lob goal. In the second half, Barcelona almost scored again, but Ronaldão saved on the line. At '78, Raí scored from this no-chance free-kick on the GK side to overcome the score to 2-1 in São Paulo's favor. Not much else was done, the match ended, and São Paulo were crowned for the first time Club World champions.
Raí, who scored a brace, was elected Man of the Match.

São Paulo - 2	1 - Barcelona
1. Zetti	1. Zubizarreta
2. Vítor	2. Ferrer
4. Ronaldão	4. Koeman
3. Adilson	3. Guardiola
6. Ronaldo Luís	5. Sacristán
5. Pintado	6. Bakero (Goikoetxea)
8. Toninho Cerezo (Dinho)	7. Amor
10. Raí	10. Witschge
11. Cafu	11. Beigiristain (Nadal)
7. Müller	8. Stoichkov
9. Palhinha	9. Laudrup
Telê Santana	Johan Cruyff

One week after the title, on the 20th December, São Paulo played the 2nd leg of the São Paulo State League final, against rivals Palmeiras. São Paulo had won the 1st leg 4-2, with a hat-trick by Raí and this great goal by Cafu. In the 2nd and final leg, in front of 111.000 spectators, São Paulo won 2-1, with goals by Müller and Cerezo, to secure their 18th State League title and tie with Palmeiras in the State League title ranking.
São Paulo played 84 matches in 1992, with 45W-21D-18L (66% rate) and 133 goals scored. Raí was the topscorer with 31 goals, folllowed by Palhinha (25) and Müller (24).
1993: International Quadruple Crown, São Paulo dominates the World again
São Paulo started the season playing the São Paulo State League. However, the 1990s was a Golden Era of Brazilian football, and the State League was dominated by a rich Palmeiras sponsored by Parmalat, with Roberto Carlos, César Sampaio, Edílson, Zinho and Edmundo - so that São Paulo finished 3rd.
São Paulo were focused in the 1993 Copa Libertadores, which they entered in the ro16, as returning champions. At first they had a 1992 rematch against Newell's Old Boys (Argentina): they lost 0-2 in Argentina, but stomped them 4-0 at home in the 2nd leg (3mn29 video).
In the quarter-finals, they met Flamengo. Palhinha scored this beautiful lob goal at the Maracanã, in the 1st leg that ended 1-1. At home, Dinho almost scored from this crazy free-kick, but Müller didn't forgive and scored this nice goal at '24. Right-back Vitor saved São Paulo with the goal empty moments later, and then he assisted Cafu to score the second and qualifying goal at '68.
In the semis, São Paulo sent Cerro Porteño (Paraguay) home, after a 1-0 victory at home and a 0-0 tie away. In the 2nd leg, after a corner kick by Arce, Ronaldo Luís saved São Paulo on the goal line.
In the big final, São Paulo destroyed Universidad Católica (Chile). In the 1st leg at home, they were leading 5-0 at '70, before the Chileans scored their goal of honor at '85 - goals and highlights here (7mn13 video). In the 2nd leg in Chile, São Paulo lost 0-2, and were crowned back-to-back Copa Libertadores champions.
Raí left to French club PSG after the Libertadores title. In this first span (1987-93) at the club, he scored 111 goals in 306 matches, as a midfielder. He would come back later, from 1998 until 2000.
In September, São Paulo won their 2nd international trophy of the year - the Recopa Sudamericana, against Cruzeiro (0-0, 0-0, p.k. 4-2).
In November, São Paulo won their 3rd international trophy of the year - the Supercopa Libertadores, which gathered all the 16 Libertadores champions in history. After beating Independiente (Argentina) (2-0, 1-1), Grêmio (2-2, 1-0), Atlético Nacional (Colombia) (1-0, 1-2, p.k. 5-4) and Flamengo (2-2, 2-2, p.k. 5-3) in the final, they only needed a win in the Intercontinental Cup against the AC Milan of Fabio Capello to claim the unique International Quadruple Crown.
São Paulo 3-2 Milan: the 1993 Intercontinental Cup back-to-back title
The early 1990s Milan was legendary - Gli Invicibili (The Invincibles) that won the 1991/92 Serie A unbeaten, reaching a 58-match run with no defeats. Baresi, Costacurta and Maldini, one of the strongest defences in football history, also Desailly and Donadoni in midfield, plus Massaro and Jean-Pierre Papin in attack. This Milan had 5 starters of the 1994 WC final against Brazil - São Paulo had none, actually only 5 bench players (Zetti, Ronaldão, Leonardo, Müller, and Cafu - who was subbed in during the final).
This 1993/94 Milan only conceded 25 goals in 54 matches, but São Paulo somehow found a way to score 3 against them.
Milan started the match better, with this crazy shot from Massaro. But it was São Paulo who opened the score at '19 with Palhinha, after this cross from Cafu. Massaro tied at the beginning of the 2nd half, but Cerezo scored the second at '59 after a cross from Leonardo. Papin tied it 2-2 at '81 from a header. But 7 minutes later at '88, this funny back/knee goal happened, scored by Müller. São Paulo held the pressure, the match ended and the World belong to São Paulo once again, for the second year in a row.
Toninho Cerezo was elected Man of the Match. With this title, São Paulo joined Pelé's Santos record of winning two back-to-back Copa Libertadores and Club World titles - they are the only South American teams to have done so until today, and probably, forever.

São Paulo - 3	2 - Milan
1. Zetti	1. Rossi
2. Cafu	2. Panucci
4. Ronaldão	6. Baresi
3. Válber	4. Costacurta
6. André Luiz	3. Maldini
5. Dinho	8. Desailly
8. Doriva	5. Albertini (Tassotti)
11. Toninho Cerezo	7. Donadoni
10. Leonardo	11. Massaro
9. Palhinha (Juninho Paulista)	10. Papin
7. Müller	9. Raducioiu (Orlando)
Telê Santana	Fabio Capello

With this title, São Paulo won the International Quadruple Crown, and is the only team in the South American history to have achieved it.

Date	International Trophy	Adversary
May 26th	1993 Copa Libertadores	Universidad Católica (Chile)
September 29th	1993 Recopa Sudamericana	Cruzeiro
November 24th	1993 Supercopa Libertadores	Flamengo
December 12th	1993 Intercontinental Cup	Milan (Italy)

In 1993, São Paulo played 98 matches, with 46W-30D-22L (62% rate), scoring 163 goals. Palhinha and Raí were the topscorers with 22 goals each, followed by Cafu (20) and Müller (15).

Player	Period	Apps	Goals	Brazil NT Caps	Goals	World Cup att.
Zetti	1990-97	432	-	17	-	1 (1994)
Cafu	1990-94	273	38	150	5	4 (1994, 1998, 2002, 2006)
Valber	1992-97	159	5	12	-	-
Ronaldão	1986-93	300	3	14	3	1 (1994)
Ronaldo Luís	1992-95	109	2	-	-	-
André Luiz	1993-96	90	9	12	1	-
Pintado	1992-93	116	2	-	-	-
Doriva	1991-94	81	1	14	-	1 (1998)
Dinho	1992-93	113	12	1	-	-
Toninho Cerezo	1992-93	72	7	73	5	2 (1978, 1980)
Raí	1987-93, 98-2000	393	128	49	17	1 (1994)
Leonardo	1990-91, 93-94, 2001	112	17	60	7	2 (1994, 1998)
Müller	1984-88, 90-94, 1996	191	110	59	12	3 (1986, 1990, 1994)
Palhinha	1992-95	229	71	16	5	-
Juninho Paulista	1993-95	141	22	50	5	1 (2002)

1994-95: the end of the Telê Era
Before Telê started to get sick in 1995, he had time to collect the 1994 Recopa Sudamericana and the 1994 Copa Conmebol - the latter with the reserve team, called Little Express, with upcoming talents such as Rogério Ceni, Juninho Paulista, and Denílson, who even beat the traditional Peñarol (Uruguay) 6-1 in the final - the largest score in a South American final ever.
He also reached the 1994 Copa Libertadores final, but lost it on the penalties to Vélez Sarsfield (Argentina) (0-1, 1-0, p.k. 3-5).
Telê passed away in 2006, at the age of 74, and is considered the best Brazilian coach in history. He inspired a series of world class coaches, namely Marcelo Bielsa, Arrigo Sachi and Pep Guardiola - notably with his Brazil 1982 and São Paulo 90-94 sides.
1996-2004: Rebuilding times, the club that almost wins
In this period, São Paulo was known for building good teams and revealing great players, but without collecting trophies. They only won 2 State Leagues (1998, 2000), 1 Rio-São Paulo Tournament (2001), and an irrelevant Copa Master da Conmebol (1996).
On the other hand, they finished 2nd in three State Leagues (1996, 1997, 2003), two Rio-São Paulo (1998, 2002), 1 Copa dos Campeões (2001), 1 Supercopa Libertadores (1997) and one traumatic Copa do Brasil (2000), losing the title in the last 10 minutes. They also reached 1 Copa Libertadores semi-final (2004), 1 Copa Sudamericana semi-final (2003) and finished 3rd in two Brazilian Leagues (2003, 2004). Meanwhile, their rivals Corinthians and Palmeiras were collecting trophy after trophy, while Santos started to reemerge to big titles.
The highlights of this period were the return of Raí in 1998 and his performance (7mn video) against Corinthians in the State League final, the performances of Rogério Ceni, Belletti, França, Dodô, Marcelinho Paraíba and Luís Fabiano, and the revelations of Denílson, Julio Baptista and Kaká. Three of them even represented São Paulo at the 2002 World Cup title (Rogério Ceni, Belletti, Kaká), as well as Edmilson and Denilson, who lived this period at the club and were now in Europe. But the trophies weren't coming.
Kaká, notably, appeared in 2001 in the Rio-São Paulo Tournament final. He entered the match at 0-1, and scored two goals in two minutes, thus taking the title home. He performed well in the 2001 Brazilian League, but was knocked out in the quarter-finals.
After the 2002 World Cup title in June, Kaká returned to São Paulo and tore the Brazilian League apart with Luis Fabiano, winning the Golden Ball Award. However, the title didn't come again, as they lost in the quarter-finals (1-3, 1-2) to the uprising young talents of Santos' Diego and Robinho. The São Paulo supporters were extremely angry at Kaká, calling him a popcorn maker (meaning choker in Brazil), and demanded his exit, notably after another defeat in the 2003 State League final (2-3, 2-3) to rivals Corinthians. Kaká then left the club in 2003 to join Milan. He played 131 matches and scored 48 goals for São Paulo, in this period (2001-2003).

Player	Period	Apps	Goals	Brazil NT Caps	Goals	World Cup att.
Rogério Ceni	1990-2015	1237	131	18	-	2 (2002, 2006)
Edmilson	1994-00	256	1	40	1	1 (2002)
Belletti	1996-02	200	16	51	1	1 (2002)
França	1996-02	327	182	8	1	-
Dodô	1995-99	169	93	5	2	-
Marcelinho Paraíba	1997-00, 2010-11	201	50	6	1	-
Denilson	1994-98	191	26	61	8	2 (1998, 2002)
Kaká	2001-03, 2014	155	51	95	31	3 (2002, 2006, 2010)
Luís Fabiano	2001-04, 2011-15	347	213	45	28	1 (2010)

2005, Libertadores, Club World Cup and Rogério Ceni - the myth, the legend, the 1
Before 2005, Rogério Ceni was considered just a good goalkeeper - after that, he became a club idol and started de facto his legacy. Ceni arrived at the club in 1990, at the age of 17. He got promoted to Telê's main team in 1992, after the death of third goalkeeper Alexandre, and collected some important titles under him, as reserve. He started playing in 1997, for both São Paulo and Brazil NT - his known antipathy however didn't help him for Brazil, specially with so many talents around with more empathy, like Taffarel and Marcos, or with more skills, like Dida. He developed himself as a world class free-kick taker - and that, somehow, worked against him when people analyzed his goalkeeping abilities.
Rogério Ceni is the goalkeeper with the most goals scored in history, with 131 goals in 1237 matches for São Paulo - 69 from penalties, 61 from free-kicks. In 2005, he notably scored 21 goals in 75 matches, being the team's topscorer of the season.
The team started the 2005 season with some good players from 2004: Cicinho, Fabão, Lugano, Josué, Danilo, Tardelli and Grafite. With the arrival of Júnior, Mineiro, Amoroso and Luizão, the team was ready to dominate South America and the world for the third time.
They started winning the São Paulo State League, led by the coach Émerson Leão, main responsible for building the team, since his arrival on September 2004. He would then leave to Japan, being subbed by Paulo Autuori.
In the Copa Libertadores group stage, São Paulo ended 1st, with 3W at home and 3D away, against The Strongest (Bolivia) (3-3, 3-0), Universidad de Chile (Chile) (4-2, 1-1) and Quilmes (Argentina) (2-2, 3-1). Highlights to this free-kick goal by Rogério Ceni against Universidad.
In the ro16, São Paulo met their city rivals Palmeiras, and won the 1st leg 1-0 away with this great goal by Cicinho. In the 2nd leg at home, Rogério Ceni and Cicinho scored at '81 and '89 to beat Palmeiras 2-0.
In the quarter-finals, Tigres (Mexico) lost 0-4 to São Paulo in the 1st leg - Ceni opened the score with this great free-kick and also scored the third from another free-kick. In Mexico, they lost 1-2, but qualified anyway.
River Plate (Argentina) would be their adversary in the semis. At home, São Paulo hit the post twice, and won by 2-0, with goals from Danilo at '76 and Rogério Ceni, from this penalty at '89. In Argentina, São Paulo won 3-2, without much problems.
In the big final, São Paulo met Athletico Paranaense, and tied 1-1 in the 1st leg (away), with this funny own goal when they were losing 0-1. In the 2nd leg at home, São Paulo won 4-0: first with Amoroso at '16. Athletico then missed a penalty, and São Paulo scored the 2nd at '52 with Fabão. Luizão scored the 3rd and Tardelli the 4th. São Paulo were for the 3rd time, the Copa Libertadores champions, and the first Brazilian team to achieve it.
Ceni and Luizão were the topscorers of the team, with 5 goals each. This title qualified them to the 2005 Club World Cup.
2005 Club World Cup: São Paulo 1-0 Liverpool, 3x Club World champions
In Japan for their 3rd time, São Paulo first beat Al-Ittihad (Saudi Arabia) 3-2 in the semis, so they could face European champions Liverpool in the final.
The English team hadn't conceded a goal in 10 matches, and went full-attack on São Paulo, who defended themselves. But at '27, Mineiro scored the only goal of the match after a chipping from Aloisio. São Paulo defended as they could, with great help from Ceni, who performed the save of the year after Gerrard's free-kick at '51. The match ended at '93, and São Paulo were crowned Club World champions for the third time.
Ceni was elected Man of the Match and Golden Ball of the Cup.

São Paulo - 1	0 - Liverpool
1. Rogério Ceni	12. Pepe Reina
5. Lugano	3. Finnan
3. Fabão	4. Hyypiä
4. Edcarlos	23. Carragher
2. Cicinho	2. Warnock (Riise)
6. Júnior	22. Sissoko (Pongolle)
7. Mineiro	8. Gerrard
8. Josué	14. Xabi Alonso
10. Danilo	7. Kewell
14. Aloísio (Grafite)	10. Luis Garcia
11. Amoroso	19. Morientes (Crouch)
Paulo Autuori	Rafael Benítez

2006-08: the Brazilian Sovereign
In 2006, São Paulo reached once again the Copa Libertadores final, but lost to Internacional (1-2, 2-2).
The team then focused on the Brazilian League, which they would win three consecutive times. Led by coach Muricy Ramalho, they would play defensive football (3-5-2) and show great regularity - though always getting eliminated in knock-out competitions. With these 3 titles, they reached a total of 6 league titles in their history.
In these 3 league titles, São Paulo played 114 matches, with 66 wins and only 16 defeats (overall rate of 67%), conceding only 87 goals.
11 São Paulo players were elected to the League's Best XI in this period: Ceni, Ilsinho, Fabão, Mineiro and Aloísio (2006), Ceni, Breno, Richarlyson, Hernanes (2007), Ceni, André Dias, Miranda, Hernanes and Borges (2008). Highlights to Hernanes, great São Paulo revelation, who later shone in Europe.

Player	Period	Apps	Goals	Brazil NT Caps	Goals	World Cup att.
Cicinho	2004-05, 2010	151	21	15	1	1 (2006)
Lugano (Uruguay)	2003-06, 2016-17	213	13	95	10	2 (2010, 2014)
Júnior	2004-08	198	11	22	1	1 (2002)
Mineiro	2005-07	138	7	25	-
Josué	2005-07	158	7	28	1	1 (2010)
Danilo	2004-06	194	37	-	-	-
Grafite	2004-06	75	27	4	1	1 (2010)
Amoroso	2005	26	18	20	10	-
Luizão	2005	28	11	17	3	1 (2002)
Aloísio	2005-08	124	23	-	-	-
Miranda	2006-11	260	10	58	3	1 (2018)
Richarlyson	2005-10	147	6	2	-	-
Hernanes	2005-10, 2017, 2019-	297	49	27	2	1 (2014)

2009-today
The São Paulo that brought fear to their adversaries disappeared in this period, collecting only one Copa Sudamericana in 2012. They managed however to reach two Copa Libertadores semi-finals (2010, 2016), two Copa do Brasil semi-finals (2012, 2015) and one 2nd place in the Brazilian League (2014). They also revealed Casemiro and Lucas Moura, among others.
São Paulo is one of the 3 Brazilian clubs to never be relegated.
To this day, São Paulo has the 3rd largest fanbase in Brazil, with 17 million supporters, and a stadium attendance average of 27.400, as of 2019.
If you have any questions about Brazilian football, feel free to join us at futebol, where you'll be very welcomed!

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Brazilian Big12 series, Episode 12/12: São Paulo

Episode 12/12: São Paulo (State: São Paulo), founded in 1930

State rivals: Corinthians, Palmeiras, Santos

Stadium: Morumbi

Mascot: Saint Paul

Major achievements: 3 Intercontinental/Club World Cup (1992, 1993, 2005), 3 Copa Libertadores (1992, 1993, 2005), 6 Brazilian Leagues (1977, 1986, 1991, 2006, 2007, 2008), 1 Supercopa Libertadores (1993)

State League titles: 21 (Against Corinthians' 30, Palmeiras' 23, Santos' 22)

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